Latest update
$148
Updated: Jun 13, 2026, 10:39 PM UTC
Browsing public data
Vistra Corp. is an integrated retail electricity and power generation company operating in the United States, serving approximately 5 million customers with a generation capacity of 44,000 megawatts from a diversified portfolio including natural gas, nuclear, coal, solar, and battery storage. The company has demonstrated strong revenue and net income growth over the last year, with Q1 2026 revenue up 43.4% YoY and net income up 341.6% YoY. Profitability metrics like operating margin (26.6%) and ROE (42.9%) are strong, but the balance sheet shows heavy debt with weak debt service coverage, and free cash flow experienced a significant QoQ decline, though the overall trend is positive. Valuation appears attractive with a forward P/E of 13.5x. Share count is shrinking, and Vistra offers a modest but growing dividend.
Revenue
The total dollars the company billed customers. When this number grows quarter after quarter, the business is finding more demand.
Latest
↑$5.6B
Q1 2026
The most recent reported figure, in the company's own currency and reporting cadence.
QoQ
↑+23.0%
vs Q4 2025
How much this quarter grew compared to last quarter. Useful for spotting acceleration or slowdown in real time.
YoY
↑+43.4%
vs Q1 2025
How much this quarter grew compared to the same quarter one year ago. Strips out seasonality — a slow holiday quarter looks worse QoQ but normal YoY.
CAGR
•—
insufficient history
The smooth yearly growth rate that gets you from the starting value to the current value. A 100% CAGR over 3 years means the business tripled, on average, each year.
Net income
What's left from revenue after paying every cost — employees, materials, taxes, interest. Sometimes called profit or 'the bottom line.'
Latest
↑$1B
Q1 2026
The most recent reported figure, in the company's own currency and reporting cadence.
QoQ
↑+341.6%
vs Q4 2025
How much this quarter grew compared to last quarter. Useful for spotting acceleration or slowdown in real time.
YoY
•—
vs Q1 2025
How much this quarter grew compared to the same quarter one year ago. Strips out seasonality — a slow holiday quarter looks worse QoQ but normal YoY.
CAGR
•—
insufficient history
The smooth yearly growth rate that gets you from the starting value to the current value. A 100% CAGR over 3 years means the business tripled, on average, each year.
Free cash flow
The cash actually left in the bank after the company has paid for everything and reinvested in itself. Harder to fake than net income.
Latest
↓$316M
Q1 2026
The most recent reported figure, in the company's own currency and reporting cadence.
QoQ
↓-47.0%
vs Q4 2025
How much this quarter grew compared to last quarter. Useful for spotting acceleration or slowdown in real time.
YoY
•—
vs Q1 2025
How much this quarter grew compared to the same quarter one year ago. Strips out seasonality — a slow holiday quarter looks worse QoQ but normal YoY.
CAGR
•—
insufficient history
The smooth yearly growth rate that gets you from the starting value to the current value. A 100% CAGR over 3 years means the business tripled, on average, each year.
| Metric | 3 yr | 2 yr | 1 yr |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | — | — | +43.4% $3.9B→$5.6B |
| Net income | — | — | +361.0% $327M→$1B |
| Free cash flow | — | — | — |
P/E TTM
↑24.8×
Trailing twelve months. Today's price divided by the last year of actual earnings.
P/E NTM
↑13.5×
Next twelve months. Today's price divided by what analysts expect the company to earn over the coming year.
Profitability
↑Strong
Operating margin (and the wider return profile) tells you how efficiently each dollar of sales becomes profit. High and rising = pricing power; low or falling = the business is grinding.
Share count
↑Shrinking
Are the buybacks outrunning the stock-based comp? A shrinking share count means every existing share owns a bigger slice of future earnings.
Debt load
↓Heavy
Total debt against cash and earnings power (EBITDA). Light debt leaves room to invest and weather downturns; heavy debt shrinks the margin for error.
Debt service
↓Weak
Whether the cash the business generates easily covers its interest and loan payments. Strong here = no forced selling in a bad year.
Cash return at today's price
↓1.0%
Free cash flow divided by market cap — the cash yield you're getting for the price you pay. Above ~6% is rich, below ~3% is thin. P/E shown when the yield is too small to be useful.
The underlying secular thesis for Vistra remains robust due to its crucial role in providing firm power for AI infrastructure. However, the stock's current price action is weak, consolidating below key moving averages with contracting volume. While the long-term outlook is positive, tactical indicators suggest it's prudent to wait for more constructive price development before initiating new positions. The current setup implies short-term distribution, making a 'WAIT' call appropriate to avoid potential further downside before a clear reversal.
Short-term thesis
Vistra is uniquely positioned to benefit from the surging demand for reliable, carbon-free power from AI data centers, leveraging its nuclear and flexible gas generation assets. While the long-term outlook for premium contracts with hyperscalers is strong, driving potential earnings revisions and multiple expansion, the stock is currently undergoing a tactical consolidation. Its robust profitability and shareholder returns underpin its intrinsic value, but heavy debt and weak short-term price action warrant caution in timing an entry.
Long-term exposure
Avoid
The business or valuation backdrop is not ready for long-term conviction.
Entry window
Wait
Vistra is currently in a short-term consolidation phase, trading slightly below key moving averages. While underlying fundamentals remain supportive, the price is not yet showing clear signs of bottoming or a renewed upward trend. We are waiting for more decisive price action or a catalyst before re-engaging.
Risk check
Fragile
The downside can widen quickly if this setup goes wrong.
Alignment
Mixed
Neither horizon fully wins, so size and patience matter.
What supports it
What limits it
Long-term thesis
Vistra is a foundational enabler of the AI revolution, providing the indispensable, firm, and carbon-free power that increasingly constrained data centers will demand, leading to super-normal pricing power.
Bottleneck Role
Vistra controls critical firm, carbon-free (nuclear) power generation capacity and flexible backup (gas), which is a non-substitutable input for AI data centers requiring 24/7 uninterrupted operation and sustainability commitments.
Consensus Blind Spot
The market is underestimating the strategic value and pricing power of 'behind-the-meter' nuclear and firm generation deals for AI hyperscalers, which will generate higher margins and lead to significant earnings revisions beyond typical utility sector expectations.
Demand Gap
The demand for continuous, high-density, low-carbon power from AI data centers is far outstripping the current supply capabilities of traditional grids, creating a unique and powerful pricing environment for Vistra's assets.
Demand to Equity Scenarios
Slower AI adoption / grid constraints
Demand
-10%
Earnings
-15%
Equity implication
-25%
Delayed contract signings, lower premium pricing, increased grid stress limits new connections.
Consistent AI growth, gradual contract ramp-up
Demand
+20%
Earnings
+10%
Equity implication
+20%
Steady conversion of demand into new long-term contracts, moderate pricing power, incremental capacity development.
Accelerated AI demand, severe power scarcity
Demand
+40%
Earnings
+30%
Equity implication
+50%
Rapid, high-value contract signings ('nuclear as a service'), significant pricing power, capacity expansion funded by strong demand, favorable regulatory support.
Dependency Chain
Repricing Triggers
Must be true
Thesis broken if
What changed
Signal
Conviction
Long term
Stock
Added since last run
8No longer flagged
0Nothing dropped this run
The prior reasoning correctly identified a pause in momentum following a large price move and suggested waiting for clearer support. The stock made minimal movement since the call, indicating the WAIT call was appropriate by avoiding a premature entry.
Jun 13, 2026
LatestUpdated Jun 13, 2026, 10:39 PM UTC
Price at review
$148
Vistra is currently in a short-term consolidation phase, trading slightly below key moving averages. While underlying fundamentals remain supportive, the price is not yet showing clear signs of bottoming or a renewed upward trend. We are waiting for more decisive price action or a catalyst before re-engaging.
Jun 5, 2026
Updated Jun 5, 2026, 6:45 PM UTC
Price at review
$148
The stock is currently losing steam following a large move, suggesting we should wait for a clearer floor.