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Long termAVOID
TXN
TXN
Texas Instruments Incorporated

Latest update

$311

Updated: Jun 15, 2026, 3:31 PM UTC

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Metrics

Texas Instruments: Strong Profitability Amidst Mixed Financial Trends and Stretched Valuation

Texas Instruments, a diversified semiconductor manufacturer, shows strong profitability with Q1 2026 net income up 31.0% YoY and robust operating margins (37.8%). However, revenue growth stands at 18.6% YoY, while Q1 FCF saw a significant QoQ decline of -36.5%. The company maintains a stable share count but has a heavy debt load with weak debt service metrics. Valuation appears stretched, with a TTM P/E of 53.3x, while cash return at the current price is low at 0.4%.

Growth pace
How fast the underlying business is moving, quarter by quarter. Hover any tile for the plain-English meaning.

Revenue

The total dollars the company billed customers. When this number grows quarter after quarter, the business is finding more demand.

quarterly

Latest

$4.8B

Q1 2026

The most recent reported figure, in the company's own currency and reporting cadence.

QoQ

+9.1%

vs Q4 2025

How much this quarter grew compared to last quarter. Useful for spotting acceleration or slowdown in real time.

YoY

+18.6%

vs Q1 2025

How much this quarter grew compared to the same quarter one year ago. Strips out seasonality — a slow holiday quarter looks worse QoQ but normal YoY.

CAGR

insufficient history

The smooth yearly growth rate that gets you from the starting value to the current value. A 100% CAGR over 3 years means the business tripled, on average, each year.

Net income

What's left from revenue after paying every cost — employees, materials, taxes, interest. Sometimes called profit or 'the bottom line.'

quarterly

Latest

$1.5B

Q1 2026

The most recent reported figure, in the company's own currency and reporting cadence.

QoQ

+32.8%

vs Q4 2025

How much this quarter grew compared to last quarter. Useful for spotting acceleration or slowdown in real time.

YoY

+31.0%

vs Q1 2025

How much this quarter grew compared to the same quarter one year ago. Strips out seasonality — a slow holiday quarter looks worse QoQ but normal YoY.

CAGR

insufficient history

The smooth yearly growth rate that gets you from the starting value to the current value. A 100% CAGR over 3 years means the business tripled, on average, each year.

Free cash flow

The cash actually left in the bank after the company has paid for everything and reinvested in itself. Harder to fake than net income.

quarterly

Latest

$844M

Q1 2026

The most recent reported figure, in the company's own currency and reporting cadence.

QoQ

-36.5%

vs Q4 2025

How much this quarter grew compared to last quarter. Useful for spotting acceleration or slowdown in real time.

YoY

vs Q1 2025

How much this quarter grew compared to the same quarter one year ago. Strips out seasonality — a slow holiday quarter looks worse QoQ but normal YoY.

CAGR

insufficient history

The smooth yearly growth rate that gets you from the starting value to the current value. A 100% CAGR over 3 years means the business tripled, on average, each year.

Quarterly revenue, net income & free cash flow
Bars show what the company actually reported each quarter. The growth chart below turns these into the QoQ / YoY pace the rest of this page uses.
Annual growth rate (YoY)
Year-over-year change in full-year totals. Strips out quarterly noise and seasonality so the multi-year trend is visible — not just the last 12 months.
Compound annual growth (CAGR)
The smooth yearly growth rate across each window. The "start → end" line shows the dollar value at the beginning and end of the window.
Metric3 yr2 yr1 yr
Revenue
+18.6%
$4.1B$4.8B
Net income
+31.1%
$1.2B$1.5B
Free cash flow
+74.9%
$555M$844M
Valuation — P/E

P/E TTM

53.3×

Trailing twelve months. Today's price divided by the last year of actual earnings.

P/E NTM

33.1×

Next twelve months. Today's price divided by what analysts expect the company to earn over the coming year.

Balance sheet & valuation
The five numbers that decide whether the growth above is safe, sustainable, and reasonably priced. Descriptions on every tile — hover or scroll to read.

Profitability

Strong

Operating margin (and the wider return profile) tells you how efficiently each dollar of sales becomes profit. High and rising = pricing power; low or falling = the business is grinding.

Share count

Stable

Are the buybacks outrunning the stock-based comp? A shrinking share count means every existing share owns a bigger slice of future earnings.

Debt load

Heavy

Total debt against cash and earnings power (EBITDA). Light debt leaves room to invest and weather downturns; heavy debt shrinks the margin for error.

Debt service

Weak

Whether the cash the business generates easily covers its interest and loan payments. Strong here = no forced selling in a bad year.

Cash return at today's price

0.4%

Free cash flow divided by market cap — the cash yield you're getting for the price you pay. Above ~6% is rich, below ~3% is thin. P/E shown when the yield is too small to be useful.

What stands out
  • Q1 2026 revenue and net income showed strong year-over-year growth, but free cash flow declined quarter-over-quarter.
  • The company exhibits excellent profitability with high operating and gross margins, alongside a strong ROE and ROA.
  • Valuation metrics (P/E, cash return) suggest the stock is currently expensive relative to its trailing earnings and cash generation.
  • The balance sheet shows a heavy debt load and weak debt service capabilities, despite a healthy current ratio.
  • The share count has remained stable, indicating effective management of share-based compensation relative to buybacks.

Thesis

Why this read

While TXN remains a compelling long-term buy due to its critical role in key technological trends and strong profitability, the immediate setup suggests caution. The stock is extended from its weekly trend, increasing the risk of a sharp correction. Waiting for a pullback closer to the previous target entry zone offers a better risk/reward proposition, aligning with both the long-term markup cycle and prudent capital management.

Short-term thesis

Mixed52% conviction-18 ptsv1
Texas Instruments: Essential Enabler Riding Industrial and Automotive Electrification Trends

Texas Instruments is a highly profitable, foundational semiconductor company with significant exposure to long-term secular growth in industrial automation and automotive electrification. Despite current valuation concerns and a heavy debt load, its strong operating engine and market position for analog and embedded processing solutions make it a compelling long-term holding. Tactical patience is required for optimal entry points.

Long-term exposure

Avoid

The business or valuation backdrop is not ready for long-term conviction.

Entry window

Wait

This week's price action shows a continuation of strength, but the stock remains significantly extended from its long-term trend. While the overall cycle remains positive, a tactical entry should await a more favorable setup closer to support levels.

Risk check

Fragile

The downside can widen quickly if this setup goes wrong.

Alignment

Mixed

Neither horizon fully wins, so size and patience matter.

What supports it

  • Margins and returns still support the long hold.
  • Trend is still doing some of the heavy lifting this week.
  • Analyst revisions have been net positive over the past month.
  • Overall market remains in an uptrend, supporting broad semiconductor demand.

What limits it

  • This needs smaller size or more patience.
  • Balance sheet is carrying real pressure.
  • Debt service looks stretched for current cash generation.
  • Price already asks a lot from the business.

Long-term thesis

Industrial Automation and Automotive Electrification will drive sustained, long-term demand for analog and embedded processing solutions, with TXN as a critical, high-margin supplier.

82opportunity75% thesis conf
Mainstream5y horizon

Bottleneck Role

Texas Instruments is a foundational bottleneck supplier in analog and embedded processing, essential for power management and real-world signal conversion. Its vertically integrated 300mm manufacturing capacity provides cost advantages and supply chain control, making it hard to replace quickly.

Consensus Blind Spot

The market might be underestimating the long-term stickiness and growing 'dollar content' opportunity within industrial and automotive applications, often focusing more on consumer electronics or AI compute. TXN's long product lifecycles and direct sales model provide insulation and predictable revenue streams not fully captured by typical growth metrics.

Demand Gap

The ongoing shift towards smart factories, renewable energy systems, and electric/autonomous vehicles creates a long-term demand gap for efficient, reliable power management and resilient sensing technology, which TXN is uniquely positioned to fill.

Demand to Equity Scenarios

Bear60% conf

Global economic slowdown, inventory build-up in end markets, increased competition.

Demand

-10%

Earnings

-15%

Equity implication

-25%

Reduced order intake, lower fab utilization, pricing pressure on standard products.

Base75% conf

Steady growth in industrial and automotive sectors, moderate adoption of new technologies.

Demand

+5%

Earnings

+10%

Equity implication

+15%

Stable order flow, gradual increase in 300mm utilization, consistent profit margins.

Bull65% conf

Accelerated industrial automation investment, rapid EV/ADAS adoption, design wins in new platforms.

Demand

+15%

Earnings

+25%

Equity implication

+40%

Strong order growth, high 300mm fab utilization, significant operating leverage and increased pricing power.

Dependency Chain

  1. 1Increasing industrial automation and digitalization
  2. 2Growth in electric vehicles and advanced driver-assistance systems (ADAS)
  3. 3Rising content per vehicle/factory in semiconductors
  4. 4Demand for power management and signal chain ICs (TXN's specialties)
  5. 5Increased utilization of TXN's 300mm wafer fabs
  6. 6Operating leverage and higher revenue/FCF conversion
  7. 7EPS expansion and equity repricing.

Repricing Triggers

  • Consecutive quarters of positive revenue growth exceeding consensus estimates.
  • Higher-than-expected 300mm fab utilization rates reported in earnings calls.
  • Confirmation of new design wins in significant industrial or automotive platforms.
  • Positive revisions to long-term earnings estimates by multiple analysts.
  • Announcement of further capacity expansion for 300mm wafers driven by strong demand.

Must be true

  • Industrial and automotive end markets will continue to grow and increase semiconductor content.
  • TXN's 300mm manufacturing advantage will yield sustained cost and supply benefits.
  • The company will maintain its strong pricing power and profit margins.
  • Management will effectively manage its debt load without compromising investments or shareholder returns.
  • No disruptive alternative technologies will rapidly displace TXN's core analog and embedded products.

Thesis broken if

  • Sustained quarter-over-quarter declines in revenue or new orders.
  • Significant erosion of gross or operating profit margins.
  • Persistent low utilization rates of 300mm fabs.
  • Inability to service debt or increased reliance on new debt issuance.
  • Loss of market share in core industrial or automotive segments.

History

What changed

Since the previous run · 1 month ago
Prior call was neutral

Signal

BUYBUY

Conviction

0.85%70%+69 pts

Long term

Maybe ownAvoidFlipped

Stock

$285.06$311.20+9.2%

Added since last run

6
  • Overall market remains in an uptrend, supporting broad semiconductor demand.
  • Strong earnings growth and robust profit margins demonstrate fundamental business health.
  • Long-term demand in industrial automation and power management continues to be a tailwind for TXN محصولات.
  • The stock is significantly extended above its weekly moving average, indicating potential short-term pullback risk.
  • Valuation is stretched, suggesting current price may already reflect future growth.
  • Heavy debt load and weak debt service could pose risks in a more challenging economic environment.

No longer flagged

0

Nothing dropped this run

Model's reflection on the prior call

The previous assessment that the stock was in a healthy cooling period and becoming expensive was accurate, as it has continued to consolidate. The emphasis on prioritizing entry closer to $240-$250 remains relevant given the current extended price from the weekly trend.

Analysis timeline
4 runs

Jun 15, 2026

Latest

Updated Jun 15, 2026, 3:31 PM UTC

WeeklyWAIT
Long termAVOID
Confidence70% · Medium

Price at review

$311

This week's price action shows a continuation of strength, but the stock remains significantly extended from its long-term trend. While the overall cycle remains positive, a tactical entry should await a more favorable setup closer to support levels.

Jun 8, 2026

Updated Jun 8, 2026, 11:13 AM UTC

WeeklyWAIT
Long termWATCH
Confidence85% · High

Price at review

$285

The stock is currently going through a healthy cooling period after becoming too expensive too quickly.

May 30, 2026

Updated May 30, 2026, 7:55 AM UTC

WeeklyWAIT
Long termWATCH
Confidence85% · High

Price at review

$306

The stock is still trading way too far above its long-term average price. It is better to wait for a deeper dip rather than chasing it after a long period of growth.

May 9, 2026

Updated May 9, 2026, 6:15 PM UTC

WeeklyWAIT
Long termWATCH
Confidence80% · High

Price at review

$288

The stock is currently overheated and very far above its typical moving averages. While the trend is exceptionally strong, jumping in right now carries a high risk of a sudden pullback.