Latest update
$410
Updated: Jul 16, 2026, 8:52 PM UTC
Browsing public data
TSM is the world's leading semiconductor foundry, manufacturing a wide range of integrated circuits for high performance computing, smartphones, IoT, automotive, and digital consumer electronics. The company provides critical wafer fabrication processes, including advanced nodes, and operates globally. Recent results show strong growth in revenue, net income, and free cash flow, with robust profitability and a healthy balance sheet, though the stock's price has outpaced the business's growth.
Revenue
The total dollars the company billed customers. When this number grows quarter after quarter, the business is finding more demand.
Latest
↑$1.3T
Q2 2026
The most recent reported figure, in the company's own currency and reporting cadence.
QoQ
↑+12.0%
vs Q1 2026
How much this quarter grew compared to last quarter. Useful for spotting acceleration or slowdown in real time.
YoY
↑+36.0%
vs Q2 2025
How much this quarter grew compared to the same quarter one year ago. Strips out seasonality — a slow holiday quarter looks worse QoQ but normal YoY.
CAGR
•—
insufficient history
The smooth yearly growth rate that gets you from the starting value to the current value. A 100% CAGR over 3 years means the business tripled, on average, each year.
Net income
What's left from revenue after paying every cost — employees, materials, taxes, interest. Sometimes called profit or 'the bottom line.'
Latest
↑$706.6B
Q2 2026
The most recent reported figure, in the company's own currency and reporting cadence.
QoQ
↑+23.4%
vs Q1 2026
How much this quarter grew compared to last quarter. Useful for spotting acceleration or slowdown in real time.
YoY
↑+77.4%
vs Q2 2025
How much this quarter grew compared to the same quarter one year ago. Strips out seasonality — a slow holiday quarter looks worse QoQ but normal YoY.
CAGR
•—
insufficient history
The smooth yearly growth rate that gets you from the starting value to the current value. A 100% CAGR over 3 years means the business tripled, on average, each year.
Free cash flow
The cash actually left in the bank after the company has paid for everything and reinvested in itself. Harder to fake than net income.
Latest
↓$287.4B
Q2 2026
The most recent reported figure, in the company's own currency and reporting cadence.
QoQ
↓-17.3%
vs Q1 2026
How much this quarter grew compared to last quarter. Useful for spotting acceleration or slowdown in real time.
YoY
↑+43.8%
vs Q2 2025
How much this quarter grew compared to the same quarter one year ago. Strips out seasonality — a slow holiday quarter looks worse QoQ but normal YoY.
CAGR
•—
insufficient history
The smooth yearly growth rate that gets you from the starting value to the current value. A 100% CAGR over 3 years means the business tripled, on average, each year.
| Metric | 3 yr | 2 yr | 1 yr |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | — | — | +36.1% $933.8B→$1.3T |
| Net income | — | — | +77.5% $398.3B→$706.6B |
| Free cash flow | — | — | +43.8% $199.8B→$287.4B |
P/E TTM
↑35.7×
Trailing twelve months. Today's price divided by the last year of actual earnings.
P/E NTM
↑19.8×
Next twelve months. Today's price divided by what analysts expect the company to earn over the coming year.
Profitability
↑Strong
Operating margin (and the wider return profile) tells you how efficiently each dollar of sales becomes profit. High and rising = pricing power; low or falling = the business is grinding.
Share count
→Stable
Are the buybacks outrunning the stock-based comp? A shrinking share count means every existing share owns a bigger slice of future earnings.
Debt load
↑Light
Total debt against cash and earnings power (EBITDA). Light debt leaves room to invest and weather downturns; heavy debt shrinks the margin for error.
Debt service
↑Strong
Whether the cash the business generates easily covers its interest and loan payments. Strong here = no forced selling in a bad year.
Cash return at today's price
↑33.8%
Free cash flow divided by market cap — the cash yield you're getting for the price you pay. Above ~6% is rich, below ~3% is thin. P/E shown when the yield is too small to be useful.
With earnings due immediately, it's best to wait for further clarity. The stock is currently below its daily moving average but still above its weekly average, indicating a short-term dip within a broader uptrend. While the fundamentals are highly compelling, the immediate event risk and recent short-term price softness suggest delaying an entry until after the earnings report provides more certainty.
Short-term thesis
TSM continues to be a high-conviction holding, maintaining its pivotal role as the leading manufacturer of advanced semiconductors vital for AI and high-performance computing. Despite short-term market adjustments and imminent earnings volatility, the company's superior technology, robust financial health, and irreplaceable market position position it for sustained long-term growth.
Long-term exposure
Own
The business backdrop is strong enough for long-term exposure.
Entry window
Wait
TSM has seen a recent pullback, dropping below its daily moving average. While the underlying fundamentals remain very strong and the long-term trend is upward, the immediate proximity to earnings introduces significant uncertainty. It's prudent to wait for clarity post-earnings.
Risk check
Fragile
The downside can widen quickly if this setup goes wrong.
Alignment
Aligned
The weekly setup and the long-term case are pulling together.
What supports it
What limits it
Long-term thesis
The continued exponential growth of AI and high-performance computing will drive insatiable demand for the most advanced, power-efficient semiconductor chips, with TSM remaining the primary and often sole supplier.
Bottleneck Role
TSM is the critical bottleneck as the world's leading, and often sole, manufacturer capable of producing the most advanced (sub-3nm) semiconductor nodes essential for next-generation AI and high-performance computing. This scarcity gives it significant pricing power and demand capture ability.
Consensus Blind Spot
The market may still be underestimating the sheer scale and long-term stickiness of demand for truly cutting-edge compute infrastructure, and the extent to which TSM's dominance in advanced nodes creates a virtually unassailable competitive moats for the next 5-10 years.
Demand Gap
The current supply of sub-3nm semiconductors cannot meet the accelerating demand from AI and HPC, creating a persistent bottleneck that TSM is uniquely positioned to fill.
Demand to Equity Scenarios
Sustained AI Accelerator demand and HPC expansion
Demand
+22%
Earnings
+22%
Equity implication
+30%
Continued high utilization and robust pricing for advanced nodes, driving steady revenue and profit growth.
Hyper-growth in AI beyond current expectations, widespread adoption of edge AI, sovereign AI initiatives.
Demand
+35%
Earnings
+35%
Equity implication
+50%
Significantly higher ASPs for advanced nodes, accelerated capacity expansion, and deepening customer dependencies.
Slowdown in global tech spending, increased competition in advanced nodes, major geopolitical disruption.
Demand
-10%
Earnings
-10%
Equity implication
-15%
Decreased order volumes, potential price pressure, and underutilization of capacity.
Dependency Chain
Repricing Triggers
Must be true
Thesis broken if
What changed
Signal
Conviction
Long term
Stock
Added since last run
9No longer flagged
0Nothing dropped this run
The prior call correctly identified that TSM was pulling back to support levels, which suggested a more favorable entry. However, the expectation of a continued longer-term upward trend immediately following the call was not met, as the stock experienced minimal price movement, indicating a neutral outcome for the very short term.
Jul 16, 2026
LatestUpdated Jul 16, 2026, 8:52 PM UTC
Price at review
$410
TSM has seen a recent pullback, dropping below its daily moving average. While the underlying fundamentals remain very strong and the long-term trend is upward, the immediate proximity to earnings introduces significant uncertainty. It's prudent to wait for clarity post-earnings.
Jun 12, 2026
Updated Jun 12, 2026, 9:58 AM UTC
Price at review
$421
TSM has pulled back to its weekly support levels, which aligns with strengthening fundamentals and expanding volume. This provides a potentially more favorable entry point compared to recent weeks, continuing the longer-term upward trend.
Jun 4, 2026
Updated Jun 4, 2026, 11:12 PM UTC
Price at review
$445
Expect a period of sideways movement or a small dip toward support as the recent rally cools off.
May 28, 2026
Updated May 28, 2026, 9:43 PM UTC
Price at review
$425
The recent price jump has left the stock a bit too far above its short-term average. It is better to wait for a small dip or for the average price to catch up before adding more.
May 19, 2026
Updated May 19, 2026, 8:39 AM UTC
Price at review
$396
The recent price drop has brought the stock back to a healthy starting point. It is now testing a key support level where buyers typically step back in during an uptrend.
May 9, 2026
Updated May 9, 2026, 9:28 AM UTC
Price at review
$412
The stock is still holding its gains but remains stretched too far above its average historical price for a safe new entry. It is better to wait for a dip closer to recent support levels rather than buying at the top.