Latest update
$305
Updated: Jul 28, 2026, 2:01 PM UTC
Browsing public data
Tesla, Inc. is an electric vehicle, energy generation, and storage company operating globally. The company reported Q2 2026 revenue of $28.2B, up 25.5% YoY, and net income of $1.1B, showing a QoQ increase but a YoY decline. Free Cash Flow was negative at -$1.1B. Profitability metrics like profit margin (3.7%), operating margin (1.4%), and gross margin (18.9%) are low. The balance sheet remains strong with light debt and strong debt service capabilities. However, its valuation remains high with a TTM P/E of 282.1x and NTM P/E of 137.0x, indicating a stretched valuation relative to current earnings. Share count is stable, and cash return at today's price is low at 0.4%.
Revenue
The total dollars the company billed customers. When this number grows quarter after quarter, the business is finding more demand.
Latest
↑$28.2B
Q2 2026
The most recent reported figure, in the company's own currency and reporting cadence.
QoQ
↑+26.1%
vs Q1 2026
How much this quarter grew compared to last quarter. Useful for spotting acceleration or slowdown in real time.
YoY
↑+25.5%
vs Q2 2025
How much this quarter grew compared to the same quarter one year ago. Strips out seasonality — a slow holiday quarter looks worse QoQ but normal YoY.
CAGR
•—
insufficient history
The smooth yearly growth rate that gets you from the starting value to the current value. A 100% CAGR over 3 years means the business tripled, on average, each year.
Net income
What's left from revenue after paying every cost — employees, materials, taxes, interest. Sometimes called profit or 'the bottom line.'
Latest
↑$1.1B
Q2 2026
The most recent reported figure, in the company's own currency and reporting cadence.
QoQ
↑+133.5%
vs Q1 2026
How much this quarter grew compared to last quarter. Useful for spotting acceleration or slowdown in real time.
YoY
→-4.9%
vs Q2 2025
How much this quarter grew compared to the same quarter one year ago. Strips out seasonality — a slow holiday quarter looks worse QoQ but normal YoY.
CAGR
•—
insufficient history
The smooth yearly growth rate that gets you from the starting value to the current value. A 100% CAGR over 3 years means the business tripled, on average, each year.
Free cash flow
The cash actually left in the bank after the company has paid for everything and reinvested in itself. Harder to fake than net income.
Latest
↓-$1.1B
Q2 2026
The most recent reported figure, in the company's own currency and reporting cadence.
QoQ
↓-176.1%
vs Q1 2026
How much this quarter grew compared to last quarter. Useful for spotting acceleration or slowdown in real time.
YoY
↓-852.7%
vs Q2 2025
How much this quarter grew compared to the same quarter one year ago. Strips out seasonality — a slow holiday quarter looks worse QoQ but normal YoY.
CAGR
•—
insufficient history
The smooth yearly growth rate that gets you from the starting value to the current value. A 100% CAGR over 3 years means the business tripled, on average, each year.
| Metric | 3 yr | 2 yr | 1 yr |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | — | — | +25.5% $22.5B→$28.2B |
| Net income | — | — | -5.0% $1.2B→$1.1B |
| Free cash flow | — | — | +2021.5% $146M→$1.4B |
P/E TTM
↑282.1×
Trailing twelve months. Today's price divided by the last year of actual earnings.
P/E NTM
↑137.0×
Next twelve months. Today's price divided by what analysts expect the company to earn over the coming year.
Profitability
↓Weak
Operating margin (and the wider return profile) tells you how efficiently each dollar of sales becomes profit. High and rising = pricing power; low or falling = the business is grinding.
Share count
→Stable
Are the buybacks outrunning the stock-based comp? A shrinking share count means every existing share owns a bigger slice of future earnings.
Debt load
↑Light
Total debt against cash and earnings power (EBITDA). Light debt leaves room to invest and weather downturns; heavy debt shrinks the margin for error.
Debt service
↑Strong
Whether the cash the business generates easily covers its interest and loan payments. Strong here = no forced selling in a bad year.
Cash return at today's price
↓0.4%
Free cash flow divided by market cap — the cash yield you're getting for the price you pay. Above ~6% is rich, below ~3% is thin. P/E shown when the yield is too small to be useful.
Tesla is currently in a clear markdown cycle, with price action and momentum overwhelmingly bearish. While the long-term thesis remains, the immediate technical picture is highly unfavorable for entry. The stock is trading well below critical support levels, and increasing volume on the downside confirms the presence of sellers. Given the weak profitability and negative FCF in the last quarter which contrasts with previous expectations, and the ongoing technical weakness, a 'WAIT' call is appropriate. This allows for observation for a potential base to form or a clear reversal signal before considering a long position.
Short-term thesis
Tesla's long-term investment case is predicated on its transformation from an EV manufacturer with currently challenged margins into a diversified technology and energy leader driven by AI (FSD) and energy solutions. While present automotive segment finances show strain (weak profit, negative FCF), future value should be unlocked by scaling high-margin FSD, expanding energy services, and leveraging mega-factory efficiencies. The current market action suggests a reassessment of its near-term earnings power and valuation.
Long-term exposure
Maybe own
There is a case here, but one sleeve still needs work.
Entry window
Wait
With earnings approximately 86 days away, the immediate event risk seen in the previous analysis has dissipated for now. However, the stock is currently in a strong downtrend, trading significantly below key moving averages with negative momentum. Volume is expanding on this downward move, indicating selling pressure. Until there is clear evidence of stabilization or a reversal, it is prudent to remain on the sidelines.
Risk check
Fragile
The downside can widen quickly if this setup goes wrong.
Alignment
Mixed
Neither horizon fully wins, so size and patience matter.
What supports it
What limits it
Long-term thesis
Tesla's transformation into a dominant AI-driven software and renewable energy solutions provider, leveraging its EV manufacturing base to capture high-margin future revenue streams.
Bottleneck Role
Tesla's bottleneck is its ability to scale high-margin offerings (FSD, energy services) while simultaneously maintaining its dominant position in a competitive, capital-intensive auto market. Mega-factory scale-out for cost efficiency and advanced AI development for FSD are critical enablers to overcome this.
Consensus Blind Spot
The market might be underestimating the long-term, high-margin revenue potential from FSD and energy services, focusing too heavily on current automotive segment pressures. It could also miss the operational leverage gains from mega-factory scale and AI optimization once it fully materializes.
Demand Gap
There is a clear and growing demand for integrated sustainable ecosystems (EVs, autonomous driving, home/grid energy storage). Tesla aims to capture this holistic demand, providing vertically integrated solutions that competitors struggle to match.
Demand to Equity Scenarios
Slower EV adoption, FSD regulatory roadblocks, intense competition and commoditization of EVs.
Demand
-15%
Earnings
-30%
Equity implication
-40%
Reduced unit sales, increased pricing pressure, delays in high-margin software rollout.
Steady EV growth, gradual FSD rollout, moderate energy adoption.
Demand
+10%
Earnings
+15%
Equity implication
+25%
Consistent revenue growth from Autos, incremental FSD monetization, steady energy segment expansion.
Rapid global EV switch, FSD achieves full autonomy and widespread adoption, energy grid integration accelerated.
Demand
+25%
Earnings
+80%
Equity implication
+120%
Exponential growth in both auto and energy segments, significant high-margin software revenue contribution from FSD.
Dependency Chain
Repricing Triggers
Must be true
Thesis broken if
What changed
Signal
Conviction
Long term
Stock
Added since last run
8No longer flagged
0Nothing dropped this run
The prior reasoning correctly identified the risk of volatility due to earnings and the technical weakness, advising a 'WAIT' posture. The outcome of minimal price movement in the interim confirmed that avoiding action ahead of earnings was a prudent approach, as the stock has continued its downtrend.
Jul 28, 2026
LatestUpdated Jul 28, 2026, 2:01 PM UTC
Price at review
$305
With earnings approximately 86 days away, the immediate event risk seen in the previous analysis has dissipated for now. However, the stock is currently in a strong downtrend, trading significantly below key moving averages with negative momentum. Volume is expanding on this downward move, indicating selling pressure. Until there is clear evidence of stabilization or a reversal, it is prudent to remain on the sidelines.
Jul 16, 2026
Updated Jul 16, 2026, 8:48 PM UTC
Price at review
$391
Tesla's price continues to show weakness, lingering below important moving averages with contracting volume. With earnings approaching rapidly, the risk of volatility is high. It's prudent to remain on the sidelines this week, waiting for the earnings event to pass and for the stock to establish a clearer direction or consolidate above supportive levels.
Jun 17, 2026
Updated Jun 17, 2026, 2:25 PM UTC
Price at review
$402
The stock is currently trading slightly below key moving averages, indicating a loss of the precise support seen last week. Volume is contracting, suggesting a lack of strong conviction from either buyers or sellers. Given the recent dip below the prior accumulation zone and mixed technicals, it's prudent to wait for clearer signs of stabilization or a rebound above the moving averages before deploying new capital.
Jun 9, 2026
Updated Jun 9, 2026, 1:15 PM UTC
Price at review
$409
Expect the price to stabilize further and begin a gradual climb as buyers step in at these reset levels.
Jun 2, 2026
Updated Jun 2, 2026, 9:01 AM UTC
Price at review
$416
Price has returned to a logical buying zone after a necessary pause.
May 13, 2026
Updated May 13, 2026, 5:33 PM UTC
Price at review
$448
The stock is currently showing strong upward momentum but has moved too far, too fast above its average price. Waiting for a brief cooling-off period is safer than chasing at these highs.