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TSLA
TSLA
Tesla, Inc.

Latest update

$391

Updated: Jul 16, 2026, 8:48 PM UTC

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Metrics

Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) - Current Market and Fundamental Overview

Tesla, Inc. operates in electric vehicles and energy generation/storage, showing strong top-line growth but declining profitability and efficiency metrics. While revenue grows, net income and free cash flow indicate some recent fluctuations. Valuation remains stretched based on current earnings. The company maintains a strong balance sheet with light debt and robust debt service capacity, but shareholder returns via cash yield are very low due to high valuation relative to FCF.

Growth pace
How fast the underlying business is moving, quarter by quarter. Hover any tile for the plain-English meaning.

Revenue

The total dollars the company billed customers. When this number grows quarter after quarter, the business is finding more demand.

quarterly

Latest

$22.4B

Q1 2026

The most recent reported figure, in the company's own currency and reporting cadence.

QoQ

-10.1%

vs Q4 2025

How much this quarter grew compared to last quarter. Useful for spotting acceleration or slowdown in real time.

YoY

+15.8%

vs Q1 2025

How much this quarter grew compared to the same quarter one year ago. Strips out seasonality — a slow holiday quarter looks worse QoQ but normal YoY.

CAGR

insufficient history

The smooth yearly growth rate that gets you from the starting value to the current value. A 100% CAGR over 3 years means the business tripled, on average, each year.

Net income

What's left from revenue after paying every cost — employees, materials, taxes, interest. Sometimes called profit or 'the bottom line.'

quarterly

Latest

$477M

Q1 2026

The most recent reported figure, in the company's own currency and reporting cadence.

QoQ

-43.2%

vs Q4 2025

How much this quarter grew compared to last quarter. Useful for spotting acceleration or slowdown in real time.

YoY

+16.6%

vs Q1 2025

How much this quarter grew compared to the same quarter one year ago. Strips out seasonality — a slow holiday quarter looks worse QoQ but normal YoY.

CAGR

insufficient history

The smooth yearly growth rate that gets you from the starting value to the current value. A 100% CAGR over 3 years means the business tripled, on average, each year.

Free cash flow

The cash actually left in the bank after the company has paid for everything and reinvested in itself. Harder to fake than net income.

quarterly

Latest

$1.4B

Q1 2026

The most recent reported figure, in the company's own currency and reporting cadence.

QoQ

+1.7%

vs Q4 2025

How much this quarter grew compared to last quarter. Useful for spotting acceleration or slowdown in real time.

YoY

+117.5%

vs Q1 2025

How much this quarter grew compared to the same quarter one year ago. Strips out seasonality — a slow holiday quarter looks worse QoQ but normal YoY.

CAGR

insufficient history

The smooth yearly growth rate that gets you from the starting value to the current value. A 100% CAGR over 3 years means the business tripled, on average, each year.

Quarterly revenue, net income & free cash flow
Bars show what the company actually reported each quarter. The growth chart below turns these into the QoQ / YoY pace the rest of this page uses.
Annual growth rate (YoY)
Year-over-year change in full-year totals. Strips out quarterly noise and seasonality so the multi-year trend is visible — not just the last 12 months.
Compound annual growth (CAGR)
The smooth yearly growth rate across each window. The "start → end" line shows the dollar value at the beginning and end of the window.
Metric3 yr2 yr1 yr
Revenue
+15.8%
$19.3B$22.4B
Net income
+16.6%
$409M$477M
Free cash flow
+117.6%
$664M$1.4B
Valuation — P/E

P/E TTM

355.5×

Trailing twelve months. Today's price divided by the last year of actual earnings.

P/E NTM

153.1×

Next twelve months. Today's price divided by what analysts expect the company to earn over the coming year.

Balance sheet & valuation
The five numbers that decide whether the growth above is safe, sustainable, and reasonably priced. Descriptions on every tile — hover or scroll to read.

Profitability

Weak

Operating margin (and the wider return profile) tells you how efficiently each dollar of sales becomes profit. High and rising = pricing power; low or falling = the business is grinding.

Share count

Stable

Are the buybacks outrunning the stock-based comp? A shrinking share count means every existing share owns a bigger slice of future earnings.

Debt load

Light

Total debt against cash and earnings power (EBITDA). Light debt leaves room to invest and weather downturns; heavy debt shrinks the margin for error.

Debt service

Strong

Whether the cash the business generates easily covers its interest and loan payments. Strong here = no forced selling in a bad year.

Cash return at today's price

0.4%

Free cash flow divided by market cap — the cash yield you're getting for the price you pay. Above ~6% is rich, below ~3% is thin. P/E shown when the yield is too small to be useful.

What stands out
  • Revenue growth is solid year-over-year (+15.8% YoY), but quarter-over-quarter growth has declined.
  • Profitability (gross, operating, and net margins) and efficiency (ROE, ROA) are weak and declining, indicating pressure on the core business.
  • Valuation multiples (P/E, Fwd P/E) are extremely high, suggesting significant future growth expectations are priced in.
  • The balance sheet is strong with low debt and ample capacity to service it, providing financial stability.
  • Free cash flow has shown strong YoY growth but a slight QoQ decline, and the cash return at current prices is minimal.

Thesis

Why this read

Despite the long-term bullish outlook for Tesla, the immediate technical setup is challenged. The stock is below key moving averages, volume is low, and an earnings report is imminent, creating high event risk. Given these factors, waiting for post-earnings clarity and a stronger setup above tactical support is the most sensible approach to manage risk and entry timing.

Short-term thesis

Mixed44% conviction-11 ptsv1
Tesla's Transformative Growth: Beyond Automotive to AI and Energy Leadership

Tesla's long-term investment case hinges on its evolution from a dominant EV manufacturer to a diversified leader in AI-driven software (FSD) and renewable energy solutions. While current automotive margins are pressured, future value will be unlocked by scaling high-margin FSD, expanding energy services, and leveraging mega-factory efficiencies. The market seems to be front-running this transition, pricing in significant future opportunities despite current mild financial headwinds.

Long-term exposure

Maybe own

There is a case here, but one sleeve still needs work.

Entry window

Wait

Tesla's price continues to show weakness, lingering below important moving averages with contracting volume. With earnings approaching rapidly, the risk of volatility is high. It's prudent to remain on the sidelines this week, waiting for the earnings event to pass and for the stock to establish a clearer direction or consolidate above supportive levels.

Risk check

Fragile

The downside can widen quickly if this setup goes wrong.

Alignment

Mixed

Neither horizon fully wins, so size and patience matter.

What supports it

  • Balance sheet gives the thesis room to breathe.
  • Debt service still looks controlled against cash generation.
  • Earnings estimates have improved 17.9% over the past month.
  • Analyst revisions have been net positive over the past month.

What limits it

  • This needs smaller size or more patience.
  • Price already asks a lot from the business.
  • Margins or returns are too soft for a clean long hold.
  • One sleeve still needs more evidence.

Long-term thesis

The transition to a fully integrated AI-driven mobility and sustainable energy ecosystem.

84opportunity75% thesis conf
Crossing Chasm5y horizon

Bottleneck Role

Tesla's bottleneck is its ability to scale high-margin offerings (FSD, energy services) while simultaneously maintaining its dominant position in a competitive, capital-intensive auto market. Mega-factory scale-out for cost efficiency and advanced AI development for FSD are critical enablers to overcome this.

Consensus Blind Spot

The market may be underestimating the long-term, high-margin, recurring revenue potential from FSD and energy services by over-indexing on current automotive profitability pressures. It also might not fully grasp the operational leverage from mega-factory production at scale.

Demand Gap

There is a significant and growing global demand for sustainable transportation and energy solutions that are integrated, intelligent, and scalable. Tesla is uniquely positioned to bridge this gap through its diverse product ecosystem.

Demand to Equity Scenarios

Bear20% conf

Slower EV adoption, FSD regulatory roadblocks, intense competition.

Demand

-30%

Earnings

-30%

Equity implication

-40%

Reduced unit sales, lower FSD uptake, margin erosion.

Base60% conf

Steady EV growth, gradual FSD rollout, moderate energy adoption.

Demand

+15%

Earnings

+15%

Equity implication

+25%

Consistent revenue from EV, incremental FSD/energy growth.

Bull20% conf

Rapid global EV switch, FSD achieves full autonomy, energy grid integration accelerated.

Demand

+80%

Earnings

+80%

Equity implication

+120%

Exponential growth in EV sales, widespread FSD subscription, robust energy segment expansion.

Dependency Chain

  1. 1Demand shock from EV adoption and energy independence.
  2. 2Scarcity of integrated AI/hardware solutions.
  3. 3High utilization/pricing power for FSD and energy services.
  4. 4Positive earnings revisions from software/services and scale.
  5. 5Equity repricing as market credits higher recurring revenue streams.

Repricing Triggers

  • Clear indicators of FSD regulatory approval and significant adoption rates.
  • Accelerated expansion and profitability of energy storage/generation business.
  • Improved automotive margins driven by new models and production efficiencies.
  • Positive analyst revisions following strong earnings reports that highlight software/services growth.

Must be true

  • Tesla will successfully navigate regulatory landscapes for FSD globally.
  • The competitive landscape for EVs will allow Tesla to maintain or improve market share and pricing power.
  • Tesla will continue to innovate and scale its energy products effectively.
  • Manufacturing efficiencies from mega-factories will significantly improve margins over time.
  • The market will eventually re-rate Tesla as a technology/AI company rather than just an auto manufacturer.

Thesis broken if

  • Persistent profitability declines in core automotive despite volume growth.
  • Significant delays or failures in FSD development or regulatory approval.
  • Inability to scale energy products profitably.
  • Loss of significant market share to competitors in key EV segments.
  • Consistently negative analyst revisions and reduced long-term growth forecasts.

History

What changed

Since the previous run · 1 month ago
Prior call was neutral

Signal

BUYBUY

Conviction

60%55%-5 pts

Long term

Maybe ownMaybe own

Stock

$402.33$391.06-2.8%

Added since last run

7
  • Strong historical revenue growth suggesting underlying demand.
  • Robust balance sheet providing financial flexibility.
  • Immediate earnings event risk (6 days away).
  • Price trading below daily and weekly moving averages indicates short-term weakness.
  • Contracting volume suggests lack of buying conviction.
  • Negative relative strength against the broader market.
  • Weakening profitability metrics.

No longer flagged

0

Nothing dropped this run

Model's reflection on the prior call

The prior reasoning about waiting for clearer signs of stabilization or a rebound was accurate. The stock has indeed shown minimal price movement, failing to reclaim key thresholds and confirming that immediate entry was not warranted.

Analysis timeline
6 runs

Jul 16, 2026

Latest

Updated Jul 16, 2026, 8:48 PM UTC

WeeklyWAIT
Long termWATCH
Confidence55% · Medium

Price at review

$391

Tesla's price continues to show weakness, lingering below important moving averages with contracting volume. With earnings approaching rapidly, the risk of volatility is high. It's prudent to remain on the sidelines this week, waiting for the earnings event to pass and for the stock to establish a clearer direction or consolidate above supportive levels.

Jun 17, 2026

Updated Jun 17, 2026, 2:25 PM UTC

WeeklyWAIT
Long termWATCH
Confidence60% · Medium

Price at review

$402

The stock is currently trading slightly below key moving averages, indicating a loss of the precise support seen last week. Volume is contracting, suggesting a lack of strong conviction from either buyers or sellers. Given the recent dip below the prior accumulation zone and mixed technicals, it's prudent to wait for clearer signs of stabilization or a rebound above the moving averages before deploying new capital.

Jun 9, 2026

Updated Jun 9, 2026, 1:15 PM UTC

WeeklyBUY
Long termWATCH
Confidence78% · High

Price at review

$409

Expect the price to stabilize further and begin a gradual climb as buyers step in at these reset levels.

Jun 2, 2026

Updated Jun 2, 2026, 9:01 AM UTC

WeeklyBUY
Long termWATCH
Confidence85% · High

Price at review

$416

Price has returned to a logical buying zone after a necessary pause.

May 13, 2026

Updated May 13, 2026, 5:33 PM UTC

WeeklyWAIT
Long termWATCH
Confidence75% · High

Price at review

$448

The stock is currently showing strong upward momentum but has moved too far, too fast above its average price. Waiting for a brief cooling-off period is safer than chasing at these highs.

Jan 21, 1970

Updated Apr 27, 2026, 10:28 PM UTC

WeeklySELL
Long termWATCH
Confidence62% · Medium

Price at review

$379

Price sits $37 below weekly 21 EMA with declining volume and negative relative strength vs. SPY, suggesting distribution continues after the failed April breakout. Daily 21 EMA at $377 is the last near-term support; a close below risks accelerating markdown toward $340-350.