Latest update
$108
Updated: Jul 28, 2026, 2:01 PM UTC
Browsing public data
SPCX operates across Space (reusable rockets, launch services, Starship development), Connectivity (Starlink broadband), and AI (Grok LLM, X platform). In Q1 2026, the company reported revenue of $4.7B, growing 15.4% QoQ. However, it incurred a net loss of -$4.3B and negative free cash flow of -$9.1B. Its market capitalization stands at $1419.5B. SPCX's balance sheet shows manageable debt, but debt service appears weak, indicating a struggle to cover interest and loan payments with current cash generation. Profit margins are negative, and the company is not paying dividends.
Revenue
The total dollars the company billed customers. When this number grows quarter after quarter, the business is finding more demand.
Latest
↑$4.7B
Q1 2026
The most recent reported figure, in the company's own currency and reporting cadence.
QoQ
↑+15.4%
vs Q1 2025
How much this quarter grew compared to last quarter. Useful for spotting acceleration or slowdown in real time.
YoY
•—
How much this quarter grew compared to the same quarter one year ago. Strips out seasonality — a slow holiday quarter looks worse QoQ but normal YoY.
CAGR
•—
insufficient history
The smooth yearly growth rate that gets you from the starting value to the current value. A 100% CAGR over 3 years means the business tripled, on average, each year.
Net income
What's left from revenue after paying every cost — employees, materials, taxes, interest. Sometimes called profit or 'the bottom line.'
Latest
↓-$4.3B
Q1 2026
The most recent reported figure, in the company's own currency and reporting cadence.
QoQ
•—
vs Q1 2025
How much this quarter grew compared to last quarter. Useful for spotting acceleration or slowdown in real time.
YoY
•—
How much this quarter grew compared to the same quarter one year ago. Strips out seasonality — a slow holiday quarter looks worse QoQ but normal YoY.
CAGR
•—
insufficient history
The smooth yearly growth rate that gets you from the starting value to the current value. A 100% CAGR over 3 years means the business tripled, on average, each year.
Free cash flow
The cash actually left in the bank after the company has paid for everything and reinvested in itself. Harder to fake than net income.
Latest
↓-$9.1B
Q1 2026
The most recent reported figure, in the company's own currency and reporting cadence.
QoQ
•—
vs Q1 2025
How much this quarter grew compared to last quarter. Useful for spotting acceleration or slowdown in real time.
YoY
•—
How much this quarter grew compared to the same quarter one year ago. Strips out seasonality — a slow holiday quarter looks worse QoQ but normal YoY.
CAGR
•—
insufficient history
The smooth yearly growth rate that gets you from the starting value to the current value. A 100% CAGR over 3 years means the business tripled, on average, each year.
| Metric | 3 yr | 2 yr | 1 yr |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | — | — | +15.4% $4.1B→$4.7B |
| Net income | — | — | — |
| Free cash flow | — | — | — |
P/E TTM
•—
Trailing twelve months. Today's price divided by the last year of actual earnings.
P/E NTM
•119.3×
Next twelve months. Today's price divided by what analysts expect the company to earn over the coming year.
Profitability
→Mixed
Operating margin (and the wider return profile) tells you how efficiently each dollar of sales becomes profit. High and rising = pricing power; low or falling = the business is grinding.
Share count
↑Shrinking
Are the buybacks outrunning the stock-based comp? A shrinking share count means every existing share owns a bigger slice of future earnings.
Debt load
→Manageable
Total debt against cash and earnings power (EBITDA). Light debt leaves room to invest and weather downturns; heavy debt shrinks the margin for error.
Debt service
↓Weak
Whether the cash the business generates easily covers its interest and loan payments. Strong here = no forced selling in a bad year.
Cash return at today's price
↓—
Free cash flow divided by market cap — the cash yield you're getting for the price you pay. Above ~6% is rich, below ~3% is thin. P/E shown when the yield is too small to be useful.
The stock has broken down significantly, trading far below its 21-day EMA. The negative daily and weekly price action, coupled with contracting volume and fundamental concerns around profitability and debt service, indicates a strong possibility of further declines. The upcoming earnings report adds substantial event risk. It's best to reduce exposure or avoid initiating a position until there's a clear stabilization and reversal in price action and momentum.
Short-term thesis
SPCX remains a long-term investment centered on its potential to dominate critical sectors like space launch, global satellite internet, and advanced AI. However, the current market data and technical setup signal significant near-term risk. While revenue growth is evident, deep unprofitability, negative free cash flow, and weak debt service capacity continue to challenge the investment case. The current price action indicates profit-taking and a clear distribution phase, prompting a defensive stance despite the attractive long-term secular opportunity. The thesis hinges on a future transition to profitability and cash generation through scaling Starlink, expanding launch services, and successful AI monetization, but this week's action prioritizes risk management.
Long-term exposure
Avoid
The business or valuation backdrop is not ready for long-term conviction.
Entry window
Trim / avoid
SPCX is experiencing significant price weakness, trading well below its recent averages with contracting volume. The stock is in a clear short-term downtrend and near its 52-week lows. Given the negative momentum, and approaching earnings, it is prudent to take a defensive position.
Risk check
Fragile
The downside can widen quickly if this setup goes wrong.
Alignment
Aligned
The weekly weakness matches a poor long-term backdrop.
What supports it
What limits it
Long-term thesis
Global demand for high-speed connectivity, reliable and cost-effective space access, and advanced AI.
Bottleneck Role
SPCX acts as a critical bottleneck in global, low-latency internet (Starlink for underserved areas), reusable and responsive space launch, and next-generation AI infrastructure (Grok & X platform).
Consensus Blind Spot
Underestimation of Starlink's profitability at scale; overestimation of the speed of execution and capital needs for SPCX's ambitious projects.
Demand Gap
Current gaps in global high-speed internet access, efficient and frequent space launch, and scalable advanced AI solutions provide significant market opportunity.
Demand to Equity Scenarios
Slower Starlink subscriber growth, increased competition in launch, AI monetization struggles.
Demand
—
Earnings
-30%
Equity implication
-40%
Weak utilization leading to missed revenue targets and continued deep losses.
Steady Starlink expansion globally, consistent launch contracts for Falcon, gradual AI adoption.
Demand
—
Earnings
+10%
Equity implication
+15%
Continued revenue growth but persistent unprofitability as investments remain high.
Accelerated global Starlink adoption (especially enterprise/govt), dominant position in reusable launch, breakthrough AI product success.
Demand
—
Earnings
+40%
Equity implication
+50%
Rapid scaling leading to significant operating leverage, faster path to profitability and strong FCF generation.
Dependency Chain
Repricing Triggers
Must be true
Thesis broken if
What changed
Signal
Conviction
Long term
Stock
Added since last run
7No longer flagged
0Nothing dropped this run
The prior reasoning correctly identified the lack of strong momentum and caution due to debt service and profitability concerns, leading to a WAIT call. The outcome of minimal price movement aligned with the expectation of sideways action, validating the conservative stance.
Jul 28, 2026
LatestUpdated Jul 28, 2026, 2:01 PM UTC
Price at review
$108
SPCX is experiencing significant price weakness, trading well below its recent averages with contracting volume. The stock is in a clear short-term downtrend and near its 52-week lows. Given the negative momentum, and approaching earnings, it is prudent to take a defensive position.
Jun 17, 2026
Updated Jun 17, 2026, 1:48 PM UTC
Price at review
$204
SPCX's price has pulled back slightly from its recent high, landing around current levels after a period of consolidation. The overall trend remains positive, suggesting accumulation, but the lack of strong momentum this week and previous concerns about debt service and profitability caution against immediate action. We anticipate continued sideways movement or a slight retest of support before a more definitive move.
Jun 16, 2026
Updated Jun 16, 2026, 2:12 PM UTC
Price at review
$214
The stock has seen a significant jump, pushing it closer to its 52-week high. While the overall trend appears positive, the rapid ascent suggests exercising patience for a more constructive entry point. Profitability concerns and stretched debt service remain a fundamental drag, making the current high price risky for immediate entry without a clearer pullback.