Latest update
$148
Updated: Sep 15, 2026, 6:43 AM UTC
Browsing public data
SPCX exhibits strong revenue growth, with its latest reported quarterly revenue at $7.8 billion, representing a 66.5% quarter-over-quarter and a 92.0% year-over-year increase. However, the company is still in a heavy investment phase, reflected by a significant negative free cash flow of -$14.1 billion in 2025. Profitability metrics like operating margin and net income, along with debt service capacity and share count trends, are currently not disclosed, making a full financial assessment challenging. The business is characterized by high growth but also significant capital expenditure, with no clear signs yet of a transition to positive free cash flow. Market data indicates the stock price has recently moved above its daily 21-day EMA, accompanied by expanding volume, suggesting renewed buying interest after a prior period of weakness. Despite this, the relative strength against the SPY over the past 60 days is negative.
Revenue
The total dollars the company billed customers. When this number grows quarter after quarter, the business is finding more demand.
Latest
↑$7.8B
Q2 2026
The most recent reported figure, in the company's own currency and reporting cadence.
QoQ
↑+66.5%
vs Q1 2026
How much this quarter grew compared to last quarter. Useful for spotting acceleration or slowdown in real time.
YoY
•—
How much this quarter grew compared to the same quarter one year ago. Strips out seasonality — a slow holiday quarter looks worse QoQ but normal YoY.
CAGR
•—
insufficient history
The smooth yearly growth rate that gets you from the starting value to the current value. A 100% CAGR over 3 years means the business tripled, on average, each year.
Free cash flow
The cash actually left in the bank after the company has paid for everything and reinvested in itself. Harder to fake than net income.
Latest
↓-$14.1B
2025
The most recent reported figure, in the company's own currency and reporting cadence.
QoQ
•—
vs 2024
How much this quarter grew compared to last quarter. Useful for spotting acceleration or slowdown in real time.
YoY
•—
How much this quarter grew compared to the same quarter one year ago. Strips out seasonality — a slow holiday quarter looks worse QoQ but normal YoY.
CAGR
•—
insufficient history
The smooth yearly growth rate that gets you from the starting value to the current value. A 100% CAGR over 3 years means the business tripled, on average, each year.
| Metric | 3 yr | 2 yr | 1 yr |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | — | — | +92.0% $4.1B→$7.8B |
| Net income | — | — | — |
| Free cash flow | — | — | — |
Profitability
•Unknown
Operating margin (and the wider return profile) tells you how efficiently each dollar of sales becomes profit. High and rising = pricing power; low or falling = the business is grinding.
Share count
•Unknown
Are the buybacks outrunning the stock-based comp? A shrinking share count means every existing share owns a bigger slice of future earnings.
Debt load
→Unknown
Total debt against cash and earnings power (EBITDA). Light debt leaves room to invest and weather downturns; heavy debt shrinks the margin for error.
Debt service
•Unknown
Whether the cash the business generates easily covers its interest and loan payments. Strong here = no forced selling in a bad year.
Cash return at today's price
↓—
Free cash flow divided by market cap — the cash yield you're getting for the price you pay. Above ~6% is rich, below ~3% is thin. P/E shown when the yield is too small to be useful.
Despite the prior SELL call being premature, current market data suggests a shift in momentum for SPCX. The price has rebounded strongly, trading above its daily moving average with increasing volume, indicating buyers are stepping in. However, given the significant run-up and the lack of clarity on crucial financial metrics, waiting for a clearer re-entry signal after potential consolidation or a minor pullback to confirm the new trend is prudent. The long-term thesis remains intact, but tactical patience is warranted to mitigate immediate risk.
Short-term thesis
SPCX remains a compelling long-term investment due to its leadership in transformative sectors: space launch, global satellite internet, and advanced AI. While current financials show robust revenue growth alongside substantial negative free cash flow, this reflects an aggressive investment phase in market-leading infrastructure. The core thesis hinges on the company's ability to transition from this investment-heavy stage to sustained profitability and cash generation through scaling Starlink, expanding launch services, and monetizing AI. The current market action suggests a rebound in investor confidence, but the underlying fundamental uncertainty means this is a speculative bet on future dominance rather than present financial strength.
Long-term exposure
Maybe own
There is a case here, but one sleeve still needs work.
Entry window
Wait
The stock has shown a strong rebound, now trading above its short-term average with expanding volume, indicating renewed interest and potential for further upward movement. While the momentum is positive, a period of consolidation or a pullback to confirm support would offer a more robust entry point.
Risk check
Fragile
The downside can widen quickly if this setup goes wrong.
Alignment
Mixed
Neither horizon fully wins, so size and patience matter.
What supports it
What limits it
Long-term thesis
Dominance in foundational technologies for the 21st century: ubiquitous global internet, accessible space infrastructure, and general-purpose AI.
Bottleneck Role
SPCX acts as a critical bottleneck in global, low-latency internet (Starlink for underserved areas), reusable and responsive space launch, and next-generation AI infrastructure (Grok & X platform).
Consensus Blind Spot
Underestimation of Starlink's long-term profitability and market penetration at scale, coupled with an overestimation of the speed of competitive entry and capital constraints. Many traditional investors struggle to value companies with long investment cycles and deferred profitability.
Demand Gap
The world needs high-speed internet everywhere, frequent and affordable access to space, and advanced, general-purpose AI that can operate at scale. SPCX is uniquely positioned to fill these gaps through its integrated approach to hardware, software, and services.
Demand to Equity Scenarios
Slower Starlink subscriber growth, increased competition in launch, AI monetization struggles.
Demand
—
Earnings
-30%
Equity implication
-40%
Reduced utilization rates, pricing pressure, and higher customer acquisition costs.
Steady Starlink expansion globally, consistent launch contracts for Falcon, gradual AI adoption.
Demand
—
Earnings
+10%
Equity implication
+15%
Consistent revenue growth from scaling operations and moderate margin improvement.
Accelerated global Starlink adoption (especially enterprise/govt), dominant position in reusable launch, breakthrough AI product success.
Demand
—
Earnings
+40%
Equity implication
+50%
Explosive revenue growth, significant operating leverage, and rapid transition to positive free cash flow.
Dependency Chain
Repricing Triggers
Must be true
Thesis broken if
What changed
Signal
Conviction
Long term
Stock
Added since last run
8No longer flagged
0Nothing dropped this run
The prior SELL call proved incorrect as the stock moved significantly against the predicted direction, rising by 37.5%. The reasoning correctly identified the short-term downtrend, but failed to anticipate the strong rebound and renewed buying interest that followed. The earnings event risk, though highlighted, did not materialize as a negative catalyst in the timeframe.
Sep 15, 2026
LatestUpdated Sep 15, 2026, 6:43 AM UTC
Price at review
$148
The stock has shown a strong rebound, now trading above its short-term average with expanding volume, indicating renewed interest and potential for further upward movement. While the momentum is positive, a period of consolidation or a pullback to confirm support would offer a more robust entry point.
Jul 28, 2026
Updated Jul 28, 2026, 2:01 PM UTC
Price at review
$108
SPCX is experiencing significant price weakness, trading well below its recent averages with contracting volume. The stock is in a clear short-term downtrend and near its 52-week lows. Given the negative momentum, and approaching earnings, it is prudent to take a defensive position.
Jun 17, 2026
Updated Jun 17, 2026, 1:48 PM UTC
Price at review
$204
SPCX's price has pulled back slightly from its recent high, landing around current levels after a period of consolidation. The overall trend remains positive, suggesting accumulation, but the lack of strong momentum this week and previous concerns about debt service and profitability caution against immediate action. We anticipate continued sideways movement or a slight retest of support before a more definitive move.
Jun 16, 2026
Updated Jun 16, 2026, 2:12 PM UTC
Price at review
$214
The stock has seen a significant jump, pushing it closer to its 52-week high. While the overall trend appears positive, the rapid ascent suggests exercising patience for a more constructive entry point. Profitability concerns and stretched debt service remain a fundamental drag, making the current high price risky for immediate entry without a clearer pullback.