Latest update
$204
Updated: Jun 17, 2026, 1:48 PM UTC
Browsing public data
SPCX focuses on satellite broadband via Starlink, reusable rocket launch services with Falcon 9/Heavy, and an integrated AI platform including the Grok LLM and X. The company reported Q1 2026 revenue of $4.7B with 15.4% QoQ growth, but experienced a net loss of $4.3B and negative free cash flow of $9.1B. Its balance sheet shows manageable debt, but debt service capacity is weak relative to its cash generation. Current valuation metrics like P/E and Fwd P/E are not meaningful due to unprofitability, indicating a highly speculative investment.
Revenue
The total dollars the company billed customers. When this number grows quarter after quarter, the business is finding more demand.
Latest
↑$4.7B
Q1 2026
The most recent reported figure, in the company's own currency and reporting cadence.
QoQ
↑+15.4%
vs Q1 2025
How much this quarter grew compared to last quarter. Useful for spotting acceleration or slowdown in real time.
YoY
•—
How much this quarter grew compared to the same quarter one year ago. Strips out seasonality — a slow holiday quarter looks worse QoQ but normal YoY.
CAGR
•—
insufficient history
The smooth yearly growth rate that gets you from the starting value to the current value. A 100% CAGR over 3 years means the business tripled, on average, each year.
Net income
What's left from revenue after paying every cost — employees, materials, taxes, interest. Sometimes called profit or 'the bottom line.'
Latest
↓-$4.3B
Q1 2026
The most recent reported figure, in the company's own currency and reporting cadence.
QoQ
•—
vs Q1 2025
How much this quarter grew compared to last quarter. Useful for spotting acceleration or slowdown in real time.
YoY
•—
How much this quarter grew compared to the same quarter one year ago. Strips out seasonality — a slow holiday quarter looks worse QoQ but normal YoY.
CAGR
•—
insufficient history
The smooth yearly growth rate that gets you from the starting value to the current value. A 100% CAGR over 3 years means the business tripled, on average, each year.
Free cash flow
The cash actually left in the bank after the company has paid for everything and reinvested in itself. Harder to fake than net income.
Latest
↓-$9.1B
Q1 2026
The most recent reported figure, in the company's own currency and reporting cadence.
QoQ
•—
vs Q1 2025
How much this quarter grew compared to last quarter. Useful for spotting acceleration or slowdown in real time.
YoY
•—
How much this quarter grew compared to the same quarter one year ago. Strips out seasonality — a slow holiday quarter looks worse QoQ but normal YoY.
CAGR
•—
insufficient history
The smooth yearly growth rate that gets you from the starting value to the current value. A 100% CAGR over 3 years means the business tripled, on average, each year.
| Metric | 3 yr | 2 yr | 1 yr |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | — | — | +15.4% $4.1B→$4.7B |
| Net income | — | — | — |
| Free cash flow | — | — | — |
P/E TTM
•—
Trailing twelve months. Today's price divided by the last year of actual earnings.
P/E NTM
•-2263.2×
Next twelve months. Today's price divided by what analysts expect the company to earn over the coming year.
Profitability
→Mixed
Operating margin (and the wider return profile) tells you how efficiently each dollar of sales becomes profit. High and rising = pricing power; low or falling = the business is grinding.
Share count
↑Shrinking
Are the buybacks outrunning the stock-based comp? A shrinking share count means every existing share owns a bigger slice of future earnings.
Debt load
→Manageable
Total debt against cash and earnings power (EBITDA). Light debt leaves room to invest and weather downturns; heavy debt shrinks the margin for error.
Debt service
↓Weak
Whether the cash the business generates easily covers its interest and loan payments. Strong here = no forced selling in a bad year.
Cash return at today's price
↓—
Free cash flow divided by market cap — the cash yield you're getting for the price you pay. Above ~6% is rich, below ~3% is thin. P/E shown when the yield is too small to be useful.
While the long-term trend for SPCX remains constructive for accumulation, current price action shows consolidation after a strong run. The persistent unprofitability, significant negative free cash flow, and weak debt service capacity mean the stock remains highly sensitive to market sentiment and requires a selective entry. Waiting for clearer price action or improved fundamental signals is prudent this week.
Short-term thesis
SPCX is a speculative long-term investment centered on its potential to dominate critical sectors: space launch, global satellite internet, and advanced AI. While current financials reveal a company in a heavy investment phase with strong revenue growth but significant unprofitability and negative free cash flow, the market is pricing in future market leadership. The thesis anticipates a transition to profitability and cash generation through scaling Starlink, expanding launch services, and successful AI monetization.
Long-term exposure
Avoid
The business or valuation backdrop is not ready for long-term conviction.
Entry window
Wait
SPCX's price has pulled back slightly from its recent high, landing around current levels after a period of consolidation. The overall trend remains positive, suggesting accumulation, but the lack of strong momentum this week and previous concerns about debt service and profitability caution against immediate action. We anticipate continued sideways movement or a slight retest of support before a more definitive move.
Risk check
Fragile
The downside can widen quickly if this setup goes wrong.
Alignment
Mixed
Neither horizon fully wins, so size and patience matter.
What supports it
What limits it
Long-term thesis
The increasing global demand for ubiquitous high-speed internet, cost-effective access to space, and advanced AI computational power.
Bottleneck Role
SPCX acts as a critical bottleneck in global, low-latency internet (Starlink for underserved areas), reusable and responsive space launch, and next-generation AI infrastructure (Grok & X platform).
Consensus Blind Spot
The market may be underestimating Starlink's long-term profitability and market size when fully scaled and diversified across consumer, enterprise, and government. Conversely, it might underestimate the capital intensity and execution challenges for multi-faceted growth.
Demand Gap
Vast underserved populations for high-speed internet, increasing need for flexible and affordable space access, and the exponential growth of demand for frontier AI models and infrastructure.
Demand to Equity Scenarios
Slower Starlink subscriber growth, increased competition in launch, AI monetization struggles.
Demand
—
Earnings
-30%
Equity implication
-40%
Reduced revenue growth and continued high operational burn.
Steady Starlink expansion globally, consistent launch contracts for Falcon, gradual AI adoption.
Demand
—
Earnings
+10%
Equity implication
+15%
Continued robust top-line growth, gradual reduction in cash burn, but delayed profitability.
Accelerated global Starlink adoption (especially enterprise/govt), dominant position in reusable launch, breakthrough AI product success.
Demand
—
Earnings
+40%
Equity implication
+50%
Significant revenue acceleration, economies of scale leading to rapid margin expansion and FCF generation.
Dependency Chain
Repricing Triggers
Must be true
Thesis broken if
What changed
Signal
Conviction
Long term
Stock
Added since last run
7No longer flagged
0Nothing dropped this run
The prior call correctly identified the stock's significant jump and suggested waiting for a more constructive entry, acknowledging profitability concerns and stretched debt service. Given the minimal price movement since then, this advice proved sound.
Jun 17, 2026
LatestUpdated Jun 17, 2026, 1:48 PM UTC
Price at review
$204
SPCX's price has pulled back slightly from its recent high, landing around current levels after a period of consolidation. The overall trend remains positive, suggesting accumulation, but the lack of strong momentum this week and previous concerns about debt service and profitability caution against immediate action. We anticipate continued sideways movement or a slight retest of support before a more definitive move.
Jun 16, 2026
Updated Jun 16, 2026, 2:12 PM UTC
Price at review
$214
The stock has seen a significant jump, pushing it closer to its 52-week high. While the overall trend appears positive, the rapid ascent suggests exercising patience for a more constructive entry point. Profitability concerns and stretched debt service remain a fundamental drag, making the current high price risky for immediate entry without a clearer pullback.