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WeeklyWAIT
Long termAVOID
RYCE
RYCEY
Rolls Royce Holdings plc

Latest update

$18.49

Updated: Jul 16, 2026, 8:51 PM UTC

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Metrics

Rolls-Royce Holdings plc: Financials and Market Position

Rolls-Royce Holdings plc, a UK-based company, specializes in mission-critical power systems across Civil Aerospace, Defense, and Power Systems segments. The Civil Aerospace segment, providing aero engines and aftermarket services, is a significant driver. The company demonstrates strong free cash flow growth (+56.8% 3-year CAGR) and high profitability with a 27.5% profit margin and 623.5% ROE. The balance sheet appears robust with light debt, strong debt service coverage, and a stable share count. However, valuation metrics suggest the stock is currently stretched, with a TTM P/E of 20.3x and NTM P/E of 31.3x. Over the past year, sales and cash have increased, but the stock price has outpaced the business fundamentals.

Growth pace
How fast the underlying business is moving, quarter by quarter. Hover any tile for the plain-English meaning.

Free cash flow

The cash actually left in the bank after the company has paid for everything and reinvested in itself. Harder to fake than net income.

annual

Latest

$3.6B

2025

The most recent reported figure, in the company's own currency and reporting cadence.

QoQ

+23.6%

vs 2024

How much this quarter grew compared to last quarter. Useful for spotting acceleration or slowdown in real time.

YoY

How much this quarter grew compared to the same quarter one year ago. Strips out seasonality — a slow holiday quarter looks worse QoQ but normal YoY.

CAGR

+56.8% annualised

since 2022 · 3.0y

The smooth yearly growth rate that gets you from the starting value to the current value. A 100% CAGR over 3 years means the business tripled, on average, each year.

Annual growth rate (YoY)
Year-over-year change in full-year totals. Strips out quarterly noise and seasonality so the multi-year trend is visible — not just the last 12 months.
Compound annual growth (CAGR)
The smooth yearly growth rate across each window. The "start → end" line shows the dollar value at the beginning and end of the window.
Metric3 yr2 yr1 yr
Free cash flow
+56.8%
$928M$3.6B
+42.1%
$1.8B$3.6B
+23.6%
$2.9B$3.6B
Valuation — P/E

P/E TTM

20.3×

Trailing twelve months. Today's price divided by the last year of actual earnings.

P/E NTM

31.3×

Next twelve months. Today's price divided by what analysts expect the company to earn over the coming year.

Balance sheet & valuation
The five numbers that decide whether the growth above is safe, sustainable, and reasonably priced. Descriptions on every tile — hover or scroll to read.

Profitability

Strong

Operating margin (and the wider return profile) tells you how efficiently each dollar of sales becomes profit. High and rising = pricing power; low or falling = the business is grinding.

Share count

Stable

Are the buybacks outrunning the stock-based comp? A shrinking share count means every existing share owns a bigger slice of future earnings.

Debt load

Light

Total debt against cash and earnings power (EBITDA). Light debt leaves room to invest and weather downturns; heavy debt shrinks the margin for error.

Debt service

Strong

Whether the cash the business generates easily covers its interest and loan payments. Strong here = no forced selling in a bad year.

Cash return at today's price

2.3%

Free cash flow divided by market cap — the cash yield you're getting for the price you pay. Above ~6% is rich, below ~3% is thin. P/E shown when the yield is too small to be useful.

What stands out
  • Rolls-Royce (RYCEY) shows strong financial performance with impressive free cash flow growth and high profitability.
  • The balance sheet is healthy, characterized by light debt and excellent debt service capabilities.
  • The company's share count remains stable, indicating no significant dilution.
  • Valuation appears stretched given the current P/E multiples and a low cash return of 2.3% at today's price.
  • While the business is performing well, the stock price has run ahead, suggesting potential overvaluation in the short term.

Thesis

Why this read

While the fundamental picture for Rolls-Royce remains strong, the current price action suggests caution. The stock is consolidating with falling volume and shows recent short-term price weakness. With earnings approaching, combined with a stretched valuation, waiting for clearer directional conviction or a more evident pullback before acting is prudent. The overall cycle remains positive, but tactical patience is key here.

Short-term thesis

Mixed71% conviction+1 ptsv1
Rolls-Royce: Strong Fundamentals, Tactical Patience

Rolls-Royce exhibits robust financial strength, driven by exceptional free cash flow growth and high profitability, particularly from its dominant Civil Aerospace segment. The company's critical role in the civil aerospace value chain, especially with its Trent engine MRO services, underpins its long-term growth trajectory. Despite stretched near-term valuation and recent consolidation in price action, the underlying business quality and secular tailwinds in air travel suggest sustained long-term appreciation. Investors are advised to await more opportune entry points rather than chasing the current market price.

Long-term exposure

Avoid

The business or valuation backdrop is not ready for long-term conviction.

Entry window

Wait

The stock is currently consolidating near its daily moving average with decreasing volume, indicating a potential near-term pause. While the long-term trend remains positive, chasing the stock now carries risk. A more patient approach is warranted, looking for a clear re-establishment of upward momentum or a more favorable entry.

Risk check

Fragile

The downside can widen quickly if this setup goes wrong.

Alignment

Mixed

Neither horizon fully wins, so size and patience matter.

What supports it

  • Sales and cash still support a long hold.
  • Balance sheet gives the thesis room to breathe.
  • Margins and returns still support the long hold.
  • The setup is leaning on a pullback entry near support.

What limits it

  • This needs smaller size or more patience.
  • Debt service looks stretched for current cash generation.
  • Price already asks a lot from the business.
  • Volume is contracting meaningfully, suggesting decreasing conviction behind recent price movements.

Long-term thesis

Rolls-Royce stands to benefit significantly from the ongoing global recovery and expansion of air travel, coupled with its indispensable role in civil aircraft engine maintenance and robust defense contracts.

88opportunity80% thesis conf
Mainstream5y horizon

Bottleneck Role

Rolls-Royce acts as a critical bottleneck in the civil aerospace sector through its sole-source Trent engine service. As flying hours increase globally, operators are captive to Rolls-Royce for essential maintenance, repair, and overhaul (MRO) services, guaranteeing substantial long-term revenue streams.

Consensus Blind Spot

The market might be underestimating the stickiness and long-term pricing power of Rolls-Royce's aftermarket services, especially given the embedded nature of their Trent engines and the regulatory burdens of alternative solutions. This creates a predictable and growing annuity-like revenue stream often missed by traditional valuation models focusing on manufacturing.

Demand Gap

The current supply of operational and maintainable large aircraft engines, particularly critical models like the Trent, struggles to meet the surging demand for global air travel. This creates a demand gap that Rolls-Royce is uniquely positioned to fill through its MRO services, leveraging its installed base and proprietary technology.

Demand to Equity Scenarios

Bear70% conf

Significant slowdown in global air travel (e.g., new pandemic wave, geopolitical shocks)

Demand

-20%

Earnings

-20%

Equity implication

-30%

Reduced engine flying hours lead directly to lower MRO service demand and delayed replacement cycles, impacting civil aerospace revenue.

Base80% conf

Continued steady recovery in global air travel; stable defense spending.

Demand

Earnings

+10%

Equity implication

+15%

Gradual increase in engine flying hours and consistent defense contracts drive organic growth in both key segments.

Bull65% conf

Accelerated global air travel recovery, particularly in Asia; increased commercial aircraft replacement cycles.

Demand

+25%

Earnings

+25%

Equity implication

+40%

Rapid acceleration in EFH coupled with fleet modernization efforts boosts MRO and new engine sales, significantly enhancing profitability.

Dependency Chain

  1. 1Increased global air travel and freight demand
  2. 2Higher engine flying hours (EFH) for Trent engines
  3. 3Increased MRO (Maintenance, Repair, and Overhaul) demand for Rolls-Royce
  4. 4Higher utilization/pricing power for Rolls-Royce's aftermarket services
  5. 5Stronger earnings, particularly in Civil Aerospace
  6. 6Equity repricing to reflect increased cash flows and market dominance

Repricing Triggers

  • Consistent strong free cash flow reports exceeding analyst expectations.
  • Upward revisions in consensus earnings estimates, particularly for civil aerospace.
  • Positive management commentary on global air traffic trends and MRO contract wins.
  • Announcement of new, major engine platform or defense contracts.
  • Further deleveraging efforts or initiation of significant share buyback programs.

Must be true

  • Global air travel demand will continue its recovery and growth trajectory.
  • Rolls-Royce will maintain its dominant market share in key engine platforms and MRO services.
  • The company will effectively manage its debt and continue to generate strong free cash flow.
  • No major disruptive technology will emerge to significantly reduce the need for current generation aircraft engines or their maintenance.

Thesis broken if

  • Sustained downturn in global air traffic data or significant cancellation of airline orders.
  • Loss of major MRO contracts or market share to competitors.
  • Persistent negative earnings revisions or failure to meet free cash flow targets.
  • Worsening debt metrics or unexpected increase in capital expenditures.
  • Widespread adoption of alternative propulsion systems that materially impact Rolls-Royce's engine portfolio.

History

What changed

Since the previous run · 1 month ago
Prior call was neutral

Signal

BUYBUY

Conviction

75%70%-5 pts

Long term

AvoidAvoid

Stock

$18.44$18.49+0.3%

Added since last run

7
  • The stock is consolidating near its short-term moving average, which can be a healthy sign within an uptrend.
  • The underlying positive cycle bias and strong fundamentals support future upside.
  • The historical track record shows strong performance following periods of consolidation in this cycle.
  • Volume is contracting meaningfully, suggesting decreasing conviction behind recent price movements.
  • The stock recently experienced negative momentum over 5 days, indicating short-term weakness.
  • Earnings event risk is near (14 days), which could introduce significant volatility.
  • The stock is trading above its weekly 21 EMA, suggesting it could still be considered extended on a wider timeframe.

No longer flagged

0

Nothing dropped this run

Model's reflection on the prior call

The prior call to 'WAIT' was accurate, as the stock experienced minimal price movement since the last update. This confirmed the expectation that the stock's upward momentum was extended and a period of consolidation was likely, providing time for a better entry point.

Analysis timeline
5 runs

Jul 16, 2026

Latest

Updated Jul 16, 2026, 8:51 PM UTC

WeeklyWAIT
Long termAVOID
Confidence70% · Medium

Price at review

$18.49

The stock is currently consolidating near its daily moving average with decreasing volume, indicating a potential near-term pause. While the long-term trend remains positive, chasing the stock now carries risk. A more patient approach is warranted, looking for a clear re-establishment of upward momentum or a more favorable entry.

Jun 18, 2026

Updated Jun 18, 2026, 9:42 AM UTC

WeeklyWAIT
Long termAVOID
Confidence75% · High

Price at review

$18.44

The stock has experienced significant upward momentum recently, extending considerably beyond its short-term and medium-term moving averages. While the underlying trend remains positive, this current extension suggests a potential for consolidation or a slight pullback in the very near term as the price normalizes relative to its averages. Patience is advised for a more favorable entry.

Jun 8, 2026

Updated Jun 8, 2026, 11:13 AM UTC

WeeklyBUY
Long termWATCH
Confidence80% · High

Price at review

$16.77

Price has returned to a logical support level after a necessary cooling-off period.

May 31, 2026

Updated May 31, 2026, 10:52 PM UTC

WeeklyWAIT
Long termWATCH
Confidence75% · High

Price at review

$17.95

The stock is currently chasing new highs but looks overstretched for a new entry today.

May 3, 2026

Updated May 3, 2026, 12:45 PM UTC

WeeklyWAIT
Long termWATCH
Confidence55% · Medium

Price at review

$16.34

The medium-term trend is still constructive but this week's price action is stuck between support and resistance, with momentum lagging the broader market. It's not a clean entry point right now.