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QCOM
QCOM
QUALCOMM Incorporated

Latest update

$219

Updated: Jun 17, 2026, 2:18 PM UTC

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Metrics

QUALCOMM Incorporated (QCOM) Overview

QUALCOMM (QCOM) develops and commercializes foundational technologies for the wireless industry, operating through three segments: Qualcomm CDMA Technologies (QCT) for integrated circuits and software in mobile, automotive, and IoT; Qualcomm Technology Licensing (QTL) for intellectual property licensing; and Qualcomm Strategic Initiatives (QSI) for early-stage investments. The company has a market capitalization of $231.0 billion.

Growth pace
How fast the underlying business is moving, quarter by quarter. Hover any tile for the plain-English meaning.

Revenue

The total dollars the company billed customers. When this number grows quarter after quarter, the business is finding more demand.

quarterly

Latest

$10.6B

Q1 2026

The most recent reported figure, in the company's own currency and reporting cadence.

QoQ

-13.5%

vs Q4 2025

How much this quarter grew compared to last quarter. Useful for spotting acceleration or slowdown in real time.

YoY

-3.5%

vs Q1 2025

How much this quarter grew compared to the same quarter one year ago. Strips out seasonality — a slow holiday quarter looks worse QoQ but normal YoY.

CAGR

insufficient history

The smooth yearly growth rate that gets you from the starting value to the current value. A 100% CAGR over 3 years means the business tripled, on average, each year.

Net income

What's left from revenue after paying every cost — employees, materials, taxes, interest. Sometimes called profit or 'the bottom line.'

quarterly

Latest

$7.4B

Q1 2026

The most recent reported figure, in the company's own currency and reporting cadence.

QoQ

+145.3%

vs Q4 2025

How much this quarter grew compared to last quarter. Useful for spotting acceleration or slowdown in real time.

YoY

+162.1%

vs Q1 2025

How much this quarter grew compared to the same quarter one year ago. Strips out seasonality — a slow holiday quarter looks worse QoQ but normal YoY.

CAGR

insufficient history

The smooth yearly growth rate that gets you from the starting value to the current value. A 100% CAGR over 3 years means the business tripled, on average, each year.

Free cash flow

The cash actually left in the bank after the company has paid for everything and reinvested in itself. Harder to fake than net income.

quarterly

Latest

$1.9B

Q1 2026

The most recent reported figure, in the company's own currency and reporting cadence.

QoQ

-56.6%

vs Q4 2025

How much this quarter grew compared to last quarter. Useful for spotting acceleration or slowdown in real time.

YoY

-18.1%

vs Q1 2025

How much this quarter grew compared to the same quarter one year ago. Strips out seasonality — a slow holiday quarter looks worse QoQ but normal YoY.

CAGR

insufficient history

The smooth yearly growth rate that gets you from the starting value to the current value. A 100% CAGR over 3 years means the business tripled, on average, each year.

Quarterly revenue, net income & free cash flow
Bars show what the company actually reported each quarter. The growth chart below turns these into the QoQ / YoY pace the rest of this page uses.
Annual growth rate (YoY)
Year-over-year change in full-year totals. Strips out quarterly noise and seasonality so the multi-year trend is visible — not just the last 12 months.
Compound annual growth (CAGR)
The smooth yearly growth rate across each window. The "start → end" line shows the dollar value at the beginning and end of the window.
Metric3 yr2 yr1 yr
Revenue
-3.5%
$11B$10.6B
Net income
+162.3%
$2.8B$7.4B
Free cash flow
-18.1%
$2.3B$1.9B
Valuation — P/E

P/E TTM

23.6×

Trailing twelve months. Today's price divided by the last year of actual earnings.

P/E NTM

20.5×

Next twelve months. Today's price divided by what analysts expect the company to earn over the coming year.

Balance sheet & valuation
The five numbers that decide whether the growth above is safe, sustainable, and reasonably priced. Descriptions on every tile — hover or scroll to read.

Profitability

Strong

Operating margin (and the wider return profile) tells you how efficiently each dollar of sales becomes profit. High and rising = pricing power; low or falling = the business is grinding.

Share count

Stable

Are the buybacks outrunning the stock-based comp? A shrinking share count means every existing share owns a bigger slice of future earnings.

Debt load

Manageable

Total debt against cash and earnings power (EBITDA). Light debt leaves room to invest and weather downturns; heavy debt shrinks the margin for error.

Debt service

Strong

Whether the cash the business generates easily covers its interest and loan payments. Strong here = no forced selling in a bad year.

Cash return at today's price

4.2%

Free cash flow divided by market cap — the cash yield you're getting for the price you pay. Above ~6% is rich, below ~3% is thin. P/E shown when the yield is too small to be useful.

What stands out
  • QCOM's profitability and debt service are strong, indicating efficient operations and financial stability.
  • Revenue growth has been negative year-over-year (-3.5%), and free cash flow is down (-18.1%), despite a significant increase in net income (+162.1%).
  • Valuation appears attractive with a TTM P/E of 23.6x and NTM P/E of 20.5x, especially given strong margins.
  • Share count is stable, and cash flow is improving, though sales demonstrate less consistency.

Thesis

Why this read

While the fundamental picture remains attractive and the long-term trend is upward, the stock's recent volatility and extended position above the weekly 21 EMA warrant a patient approach. The current price action is hovering around a short-term moving average with declining volume, indicating a pause. It is prudent to wait for more definitive signs of renewed buying pressure and consolidation before initiating new positions, despite the positive fundamental backdrop.

Short-term thesis

Mixed74% conviction+4 ptsv1
QUALCOMM: AI Edge Computing Fuels Long-Term Markup, Patience Needed for Entry

QUALCOMM is navigating a transition from parabolic growth to a more sustainable markup phase, driven by its critical role in supplying NPU silicon for the growing Edge AI and AI PC markets. Despite recent volatility and mixed sales metrics, the company's strong profitability, manageable debt, and strategic positioning underscore an attractive long-term investment profile. However, tactical patience is advised given the stock's current extended technical posture.

Long-term exposure

Maybe own

There is a case here, but one sleeve still needs work.

Entry window

Wait

QUALCOMM is consolidating after a significant rally and subsequent pullback. While trading near its daily short-term average, its extended position relative to the longer-term weekly average suggests caution. Volume has contracted, indicating a period of digestion. We are looking for clear accumulation signals before recommending new action.

Risk check

Watch

Risk is manageable, but position size and timing still matter.

Alignment

Mixed

Neither horizon fully wins, so size and patience matter.

What supports it

  • Price still looks reasonable against the business.
  • Debt service still looks controlled against cash generation.
  • Margins and returns still support the long hold.
  • The stock is leading the broad market by 9.6 points over the past month.

What limits it

  • One sleeve still needs more evidence.
  • Analyst revisions have been net negative over the past month.
  • Significant extension above the weekly 21 EMA, suggesting potential for further pullback.
  • Recent negative fluctuations in revenue and free cash flow.

Long-term thesis

The proliferation of Artificial Intelligence at the edge, requiring specialized computing power, notably for AI PCs and next-generation mobile devices.

84opportunity80% thesis conf
Crossing Chasm2y horizon

Bottleneck Role

QUALCOMM is a critical bottleneck for premium NPU silicon required to enable Edge AI capabilities in devices like AI PCs, next-gen smartphones, and advanced automotive systems. Their design and manufacturing expertise create a scarcity of high-performance, power-efficient AI processing units.

Consensus Blind Spot

The consensus may still be underestimating the speed and scope of the transition to Edge AI, particularly how quickly NPU integration will become a standard feature and drive replacement cycles in PCs and mobile. The stickiness of QUALCOMM's licensing business in the face of this hardware transition may also be overlooked.

Demand Gap

There is a significant and growing demand gap for integrated NPU solutions that can deliver efficient, high-performance AI processing directly on devices, reducing reliance on cloud infrastructure and enabling new applications. QUALCOMM is well-positioned to fill this gap with its Snapdragon platforms.

Demand to Equity Scenarios

Bear60% conf

Slower-than-expected adoption of AI PCs and Edge AI applications due to software ecosystem immaturity or higher device costs.

Demand

-15%

Earnings

-10%

Equity implication

-20%

Reduced unit shipments and ASPs for NPU-enabled chipsets, leading to increased competition.

Base80% conf

Steady, progressive adoption of AI PCs and Edge AI, with QUALCOMM maintaining its market share, driven by a growing ecosystem.

Demand

+20%

Earnings

+15%

Equity implication

+25%

Solid growth in NPU shipments, stable pricing, and expansion into new device categories.

Bull75% conf

Accelerated and widespread adoption of AI PCs and Edge AI becoming a mainstream feature, leading to rapid device refresh cycles and market share gains for QUALCOMM.

Demand

+40%

Earnings

+30%

Equity implication

+50%

Explosive growth in NPU unit sales, potential for higher ASPs, and strong licensing revenue.

Dependency Chain

  1. 1Explosive growth in AI applications (especially generative AI)
  2. 2Increased demand for processing power at the device level (Edge AI)
  3. 3Need for specialized Neural Processing Units (NPUs) for efficiency and performance
  4. 4QUALCOMM's expertise and market share in mobile and PC chipsets make it a primary NPU supplier
  5. 5Bottleneck in NPU supply drives pricing power and market capture for QUALCOMM
  6. 6Translation into strong revenue, earnings growth, and equity repricing.

Repricing Triggers

  • Strong quarterly results showing accelerating NPU shipments for AI PC/Edge segments.
  • Announcements of new design wins with major PC OEMs or smartphone manufacturers for AI chips.
  • Upward revisions to guidance by management for AI-driven revenue.
  • Positive analyst sentiment shifts and earnings estimate upgrades.
  • Successful launch and market reception of new Snapdragon X Series chipsets.

Must be true

  • Demand for local AI processing will continue to grow significantly, necessitating specialized NPUs.
  • QUALCOMM can maintain or grow its market share in critical AI-enabled device categories (mobile, PC, automotive).
  • The ecosystem for Edge AI applications will mature sufficiently to drive NPU adoption.
  • Gross margins can be sustained or improved as NPU-enabled chips become standard.
  • Geopolitical risks and supply chain disruptions will not materially impede manufacturing or distribution.

Thesis broken if

  • Disappointing NPU unit shipment numbers from earnings reports.
  • Increased competition leading to significant price erosion in NPU chipsets.
  • Major OEMs opting for in-house NPU solutions or competitors' offerings.
  • Stagnation in the development or adoption of Edge AI applications.
  • Consistent negative earnings revisions and guidance downgrades.

History

What changed

Since the previous run · 1 month ago
Prior call was neutral

Signal

BUYBUY

Conviction

0.7%70%+69 pts

Long term

Maybe ownMaybe own

Stock

$215.94$219.15+1.5%

Added since last run

8
  • Strong demand for NPU silicon in Edge AI and AI PCs.
  • Attractive valuation metrics relative to strong profitability and future growth prospects.
  • Stock price testing the daily 21 EMA, which could serve as a support level.
  • Strong relative strength against both the broader market and its sector.
  • Significant extension above the weekly 21 EMA, suggesting potential for further pullback.
  • Contracting volume indicates reduced buyer conviction in the short term.
  • Recent negative year-over-year revenue growth and FCF decline, albeit with strong net income growth.
  • Revision trend shows negative sentiment from analysts over the past 90 days.

No longer flagged

0

Nothing dropped this run

Model's reflection on the prior call

The previous call to 'WAIT' as the stock attempted to find a floor was confirmed, with minimal price movement since the last update, indicating the call was roughly neutral in its outcome.

Analysis timeline
5 runs

Jun 17, 2026

Latest

Updated Jun 17, 2026, 2:18 PM UTC

WeeklyWAIT
Long termWATCH
Confidence70% · Medium

Price at review

$219

QUALCOMM is consolidating after a significant rally and subsequent pullback. While trading near its daily short-term average, its extended position relative to the longer-term weekly average suggests caution. Volume has contracted, indicating a period of digestion. We are looking for clear accumulation signals before recommending new action.

Jun 8, 2026

Updated Jun 8, 2026, 11:13 AM UTC

WeeklyWAIT
Long termWATCH
Confidence70% · Medium

Price at review

$216

Expect further stabilization around current levels as the stock attempts to find a floor.

May 31, 2026

Updated May 31, 2026, 10:52 PM UTC

WeeklyWAIT
Long termWATCH
Confidence65% · Medium

Price at review

$251

Expect a sideways pause or a slight dip to let the rapid price gains settle.

Jan 21, 1970

Updated Apr 27, 2026, 10:36 PM UTC

WeeklyBUY
Long termWATCH
Confidence58% · Medium

Price at review

$150

Price is testing the weekly 21 EMA ($150.74) with price at $150.26, making this a decisive moment. The 2-day proximity to April 29 earnings creates binary risk—above EMA confirmation could trigger momentum follow-through, but any guidance miss given the 13.6x forward P/E pricing in ~55% earnings growth would be punished severely.

Jan 21, 1970

Updated Apr 25, 2026, 11:19 AM UTC

WeeklyBUY
Confidence68% · Medium

Price at review

$149

Price surged 11.12% on strong volume, breaking above daily 21 EMA with momentum accelerating. However, weekly 21 EMA at $150.61 remains just overhead as critical resistance to watch this week.