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NVDA
NVDA
NVIDIA Corporation

Latest update

$207

Updated: Jul 16, 2026, 8:51 PM UTC

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Metrics

NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) Financial and Operational Overview

NVIDIA Corporation exhibits exceptionally strong financial performance driven by its dominant position in the AI infrastructure market. The company showcases robust revenue and free cash flow growth, high profitability margins, and a solid balance sheet with light debt and strong debt service capabilities. While valuation metrics like P/E are high, they are contextualized by accelerated growth rates. Shareholder returns have seen a modest but increasing dividend, and share count remains stable.

Growth pace
How fast the underlying business is moving, quarter by quarter. Hover any tile for the plain-English meaning.

Revenue

The total dollars the company billed customers. When this number grows quarter after quarter, the business is finding more demand.

quarterly

Latest

$81.6B

Q2 2026

The most recent reported figure, in the company's own currency and reporting cadence.

QoQ

+19.8%

vs Q1 2026

How much this quarter grew compared to last quarter. Useful for spotting acceleration or slowdown in real time.

YoY

+85.2%

vs Q2 2025

How much this quarter grew compared to the same quarter one year ago. Strips out seasonality — a slow holiday quarter looks worse QoQ but normal YoY.

CAGR

insufficient history

The smooth yearly growth rate that gets you from the starting value to the current value. A 100% CAGR over 3 years means the business tripled, on average, each year.

Net income

What's left from revenue after paying every cost — employees, materials, taxes, interest. Sometimes called profit or 'the bottom line.'

quarterly

Latest

$58.3B

Q2 2026

The most recent reported figure, in the company's own currency and reporting cadence.

QoQ

+35.8%

vs Q1 2026

How much this quarter grew compared to last quarter. Useful for spotting acceleration or slowdown in real time.

YoY

+210.6%

vs Q2 2025

How much this quarter grew compared to the same quarter one year ago. Strips out seasonality — a slow holiday quarter looks worse QoQ but normal YoY.

CAGR

insufficient history

The smooth yearly growth rate that gets you from the starting value to the current value. A 100% CAGR over 3 years means the business tripled, on average, each year.

Free cash flow

The cash actually left in the bank after the company has paid for everything and reinvested in itself. Harder to fake than net income.

quarterly

Latest

$48.6B

Q2 2026

The most recent reported figure, in the company's own currency and reporting cadence.

QoQ

+39.2%

vs Q1 2026

How much this quarter grew compared to last quarter. Useful for spotting acceleration or slowdown in real time.

YoY

+85.5%

vs Q2 2025

How much this quarter grew compared to the same quarter one year ago. Strips out seasonality — a slow holiday quarter looks worse QoQ but normal YoY.

CAGR

insufficient history

The smooth yearly growth rate that gets you from the starting value to the current value. A 100% CAGR over 3 years means the business tripled, on average, each year.

Quarterly revenue, net income & free cash flow
Bars show what the company actually reported each quarter. The growth chart below turns these into the QoQ / YoY pace the rest of this page uses.
Annual growth rate (YoY)
Year-over-year change in full-year totals. Strips out quarterly noise and seasonality so the multi-year trend is visible — not just the last 12 months.
Compound annual growth (CAGR)
The smooth yearly growth rate across each window. The "start → end" line shows the dollar value at the beginning and end of the window.
Metric3 yr2 yr1 yr
Revenue
+85.3%
$44.1B$81.6B
Net income
+210.9%
$18.8B$58.3B
Free cash flow
+85.6%
$26.2B$48.6B
Valuation — P/E

P/E TTM

31.8×

Trailing twelve months. Today's price divided by the last year of actual earnings.

P/E NTM

16.2×

Next twelve months. Today's price divided by what analysts expect the company to earn over the coming year.

Balance sheet & valuation
The five numbers that decide whether the growth above is safe, sustainable, and reasonably priced. Descriptions on every tile — hover or scroll to read.

Profitability

Strong

Operating margin (and the wider return profile) tells you how efficiently each dollar of sales becomes profit. High and rising = pricing power; low or falling = the business is grinding.

Share count

Stable

Are the buybacks outrunning the stock-based comp? A shrinking share count means every existing share owns a bigger slice of future earnings.

Debt load

Light

Total debt against cash and earnings power (EBITDA). Light debt leaves room to invest and weather downturns; heavy debt shrinks the margin for error.

Debt service

Strong

Whether the cash the business generates easily covers its interest and loan payments. Strong here = no forced selling in a bad year.

Cash return at today's price

0.9%

Free cash flow divided by market cap — the cash yield you're getting for the price you pay. Above ~6% is rich, below ~3% is thin. P/E shown when the yield is too small to be useful.

What stands out
  • Revenue and free cash flow have experienced significant year-over-year increases (+85.2% and +85.5% respectively), indicating strong market demand and operational efficiency.
  • Net income has surged by over 200% year-over-year, alongside impressive profit, operating, and gross margins (63.0%, 65.6%, 74.1%), highlighting pricing power and cost control.
  • The balance sheet is robust with a high current ratio (3.4) and quick ratio (2.1), light debt, and strong EBITDA coverage of debt, providing ample financial flexibility.
  • Valuation, though appearing high at 31.8x TTM P/E, becomes more attractive at 16.2x NTM P/E given the company's accelerating earnings growth of 214.5%.
  • Shareholder trend is stable with a flat share count and a growing, albeit small, dividend yield, suggesting a focus on reinvestment into high-growth opportunities.

Thesis

Why this read

While the fundamental picture for NVIDIA remains exceptionally strong, and the overall cycle bias is accumulation, the short-term technicals suggest a 'WAIT' for this week. The price is hovering around its daily 21 EMA and volume is contracting, indicating indecision. Although it's still above its weekly 21 EMA, suggesting underlying support, there isn't a compelling catalyst for immediate outperformance. Waiting for a more decisive move or increased volume would provide a better entry point, despite the strong long-term thesis.

Short-term thesis

Aligned90% conviction+20 ptsv1
NVIDIA: The Indispensable AI Bottleneck in a Healthy Consolidation

NVIDIA remains a critical investment due to its unparalleled position as the bottleneck in AI infrastructure, providing both essential hardware and a proprietary software ecosystem. Despite a recent consolidation phase, the underlying fundamentals are robust, with exceptional growth and profitability. This period offers an opportunity for long-term investors, as the company is uniquely positioned to capitalize on the escalating demand for AI compute, with its dominance translating directly into sustained earnings strength.

Long-term exposure

Own

The business backdrop is strong enough for long-term exposure.

Entry window

Wait

NVIDIA is currently consolidating near key moving averages, indicating a pause in its strong upward trend. While the long-term outlook remains positive, the contracting volume and lack of immediate upward momentum suggest waiting for a clearer catalyst or a more decisive move higher before initiating new positions this week. The stock is holding above its weekly average, which is a constructive sign, but near-term action is flat.

Risk check

Watch

Risk is manageable, but position size and timing still matter.

Alignment

Aligned

The weekly setup and the long-term case are pulling together.

What supports it

  • Sales and cash still support a long hold.
  • Price still looks reasonable against the business.
  • Balance sheet gives the thesis room to breathe.
  • Debt service still looks controlled against cash generation.

What limits it

  • Price has slipped near the daily 21-day moving average after a consolidation, showing short-term weakness.
  • The stock's short-term price action shows some indecision and contracting volume, indicating a potential lack of immediate upward momentum.
  • Heavy reliance on global supply chains for chip manufacturing could pose risks related to geopolitical tensions or disruptions.
  • Increased competition in the accelerating AI hardware space, while currently not a major threat, could emerge in the long run.

Long-term thesis

The pervasive and accelerating adoption of Artificial Intelligence across all sectors, from data centers to enterprise solutions, creating an insatiable demand for high-performance computing infrastructure.

90opportunity90% thesis conf
Crossing Chasm5y horizon

Bottleneck Role

NVIDIA is the indispensable bottleneck by commanding the supply of cutting-edge GPUs (e.g., Blackwell) and the proprietary CUDA software platform. This dual-pronged control creates an ecosystem lock-in, making it difficult for competitors to displace and ensuring pricing power and sustained demand certainty across the entire AI value chain.

Consensus Blind Spot

The consensus may underestimate the long-term stickiness and exponential growth demand of NVIDIA's proprietary CUDA ecosystem, viewing GPU hardware as a commodity rather than a highly specialized, integrated solution. They might also underestimate the breadth of future AI applications and the associated compute demand from sovereign AI initiatives and broader enterprise integration.

Demand Gap

There is a significant and growing gap between the accelerating demand for high-performance AI computing (driven by model complexity and adoption) and the available supply of specialized, integrated hardware and software solutions that can efficiently meet this demand. NVIDIA is uniquely positioned to bridge this gap.

Demand to Equity Scenarios

Bull85% conf

Accelerated adoption of sovereign AI initiatives, widespread enterprise AI integration across industries, and continued innovation in AI models requiring even greater compute resources.

Demand

+30%

Earnings

+40%

Equity implication

+40%

Higher volume and ASPs for GPUs and networking solutions, increased licensing/usage of CUDA, and expanded market share in new AI verticals.

Base90% conf

Steady, strong growth in data center AI demand from hyperscalers, continued migration of traditional workloads to accelerated computing, and gradual enterprise AI adoption.

Demand

+20%

Earnings

+25%

Equity implication

+25%

Consistent growth in data center revenue, stable ASPs, and incremental expansion into new customer segments.

Bear70% conf

Significant global economic slowdowns impacting enterprise IT spending, increased geopolitical tensions severely disrupting supply chains, or rapid, unexpected breakthroughs from competitors that erode NVIDIA's ecosystem lock-in.

Demand

-15%

Earnings

-15%

Equity implication

-20%

Reduced demand for AI infrastructure, pricing pressure from increased competition, and potential disruption to manufacturing and distribution channels.

Dependency Chain

  1. 1Ubiquitous digitalization and data explosion
  2. 2Emergence of complex AI models (generative AI, large language models)
  3. 3Exponential increase in computational power requirements
  4. 4Scarcity of specialized AI processors and integrated software platforms
  5. 5NVIDIA's role as the primary provider of these bottleneck resources
  6. 6Sustained earnings growth and equity repricing for NVIDIA

Repricing Triggers

  • Better-than-expected quarterly earnings and guidance, particularly from Hopper/Blackwell shipments.
  • New product announcements or significant architectural upgrades that further extend NVIDIA's performance lead.
  • Expansion into new high-growth AI verticals or strategic partnerships.
  • Analyst upgrades and increased price targets following sustained outperformance.
  • Confirmation of strong demand from sovereign AI projects and large enterprise deployments.

Must be true

  • NVIDIA maintains its technological lead and brand dominance in high-performance AI GPUs.
  • The CUDA ecosystem continues to be the preferred platform for AI developers, maintaining its network effect.
  • Global demand for AI compute infrastructure continues to grow at an accelerating pace.
  • Geopolitical risks and supply chain disruptions are managed effectively and do not severely impede production.
  • Major competitors do not rapidly develop a viable alternative that significantly erodes NVIDIA's market share or pricing power.

Thesis broken if

  • Significant erosion of NVIDIA's market share in key data center or AI segments.
  • Widespread adoption of alternative software platforms (e.g., ROCm) by major AI developers or hyperscalers.
  • Sharp decline in gross margins or profit margins indicating increased competition or diminishing pricing power.
  • Consistent underperformance relative to conservative guidance.
  • Escalating inventory levels coupled with declining revenue growth.

History

What changed

Since the previous run · 1 month ago
Prior call was neutral

Signal

BUYBUY

Conviction

75%70%-5 pts

Long term

Maybe ownOwnFlipped

Stock

$212.45$207.40-2.4%

Added since last run

6
  • Stock is holding above weekly 21-day moving average, a sign of underlying strength.
  • Earnings revisions are positive, with estimates up both 30-day and 90-day.
  • Valuation (fwd P/E 16.2) is attractive relative to earnings growth (214.5%).
  • Price has slipped near the daily 21-day moving average after a consolidation, showing short-term weakness.
  • Volume is contracting, indicating a lack of strong buying or selling pressure.
  • Relative strength against the broader market over 60 days is slightly negative.

No longer flagged

0

Nothing dropped this run

Model's reflection on the prior call

The previous call was 'BUY' with a 'BUY' weekly action, predicting continued strength and upward momentum after a healthy consolidation. The outcome was minimal price movement, indicating the call was roughly neutral. While the consolidation was healthy, the upward momentum did not immediately materialize as expected, suggesting the timing of the BUY action was slightly premature for immediate gains, though the underlying accumulation bias remains valid.

Analysis timeline
6 runs

Jul 16, 2026

Latest

Updated Jul 16, 2026, 8:51 PM UTC

WeeklyWAIT
Long termOWN
Confidence70% · Medium

Price at review

$207

NVIDIA is currently consolidating near key moving averages, indicating a pause in its strong upward trend. While the long-term outlook remains positive, the contracting volume and lack of immediate upward momentum suggest waiting for a clearer catalyst or a more decisive move higher before initiating new positions this week. The stock is holding above its weekly average, which is a constructive sign, but near-term action is flat.

Jun 16, 2026

Updated Jun 16, 2026, 11:31 AM UTC

WeeklyBUY
Long termWATCH
Confidence75% · High

Price at review

$212

NVIDIA is showing a constructive setup this week, positioning itself for continued strength. The recent price action appears to be a healthy consolidation, with buying interest returning as the stock finds support. This suggests continued upward momentum is likely.

Jun 9, 2026

Updated Jun 9, 2026, 7:21 AM UTC

WeeklyBUY
Long termWATCH
Confidence88% · High

Price at review

$209

The stock has successfully pulled back to an attractive zone where long-term buyers typically step in.

Jun 2, 2026

Updated Jun 2, 2026, 9:01 AM UTC

WeeklyWAIT
Long termWATCH
Confidence75% · High

Price at review

$224

The trend remains upward and healthy, but current prices have moved too quickly in the last few sessions.

May 13, 2026

Updated May 13, 2026, 4:36 PM UTC

WeeklyWAIT
Long termWATCH
Confidence75% · High

Price at review

$227

The recent surge has left the stock stretched far above its natural support levels. Expect a period of sideways trading or a shallow dip before the next sustainable move higher.

May 1, 2026

Updated May 1, 2026, 9:32 AM UTC

WeeklyBUY
Long termWATCH
Confidence68% · Medium

Price at review

$200

The sharp pullback to the daily 21-day average after a parabolic run has reset the risk-reward; price is now consolidating near support with volume expanding on the decline, suggesting a potential washout rather than breakdown.