Latest update
$11.95
Updated: Jun 17, 2026, 2:18 PM UTC
Browsing public data
Nokia Oyj provides mobile, fixed, and cloud network solutions globally. While the company exhibits strong debt serviceability and a solid balance sheet, its profitability and return on capital remain weak. Recent Q1 2026 results showed a significant quarter-over-quarter decline in revenue and net income, though free cash flow improved substantially. The stock's valuation appears attractive on a forward P/E basis, but the current P/E is elevated, reflecting low earnings. Share count is stable, and dividends have shown a modest upward trend.
Revenue
The total dollars the company billed customers. When this number grows quarter after quarter, the business is finding more demand.
Latest
↓$4.5B
Q1 2026
The most recent reported figure, in the company's own currency and reporting cadence.
QoQ
↓-26.6%
vs Q4 2025
How much this quarter grew compared to last quarter. Useful for spotting acceleration or slowdown in real time.
YoY
→+2.4%
vs Q1 2025
How much this quarter grew compared to the same quarter one year ago. Strips out seasonality — a slow holiday quarter looks worse QoQ but normal YoY.
CAGR
•—
insufficient history
The smooth yearly growth rate that gets you from the starting value to the current value. A 100% CAGR over 3 years means the business tripled, on average, each year.
Net income
What's left from revenue after paying every cost — employees, materials, taxes, interest. Sometimes called profit or 'the bottom line.'
Latest
↓$86M
Q1 2026
The most recent reported figure, in the company's own currency and reporting cadence.
QoQ
↓-84.1%
vs Q4 2025
How much this quarter grew compared to last quarter. Useful for spotting acceleration or slowdown in real time.
YoY
•—
vs Q1 2025
How much this quarter grew compared to the same quarter one year ago. Strips out seasonality — a slow holiday quarter looks worse QoQ but normal YoY.
CAGR
•—
insufficient history
The smooth yearly growth rate that gets you from the starting value to the current value. A 100% CAGR over 3 years means the business tripled, on average, each year.
Free cash flow
The cash actually left in the bank after the company has paid for everything and reinvested in itself. Harder to fake than net income.
Latest
↑$629M
Q1 2026
The most recent reported figure, in the company's own currency and reporting cadence.
QoQ
↑+177.1%
vs Q4 2025
How much this quarter grew compared to last quarter. Useful for spotting acceleration or slowdown in real time.
YoY
↓-12.8%
vs Q1 2025
How much this quarter grew compared to the same quarter one year ago. Strips out seasonality — a slow holiday quarter looks worse QoQ but normal YoY.
CAGR
•—
insufficient history
The smooth yearly growth rate that gets you from the starting value to the current value. A 100% CAGR over 3 years means the business tripled, on average, each year.
| Metric | 3 yr | 2 yr | 1 yr |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | — | — | +2.4% $4.4B→$4.5B |
| Net income | — | — | -5.9% $90M→$86M |
| Free cash flow | — | — | -12.8% $721M→$629M |
P/E TTM
↑85.3×
Trailing twelve months. Today's price divided by the last year of actual earnings.
P/E NTM
↑30.3×
Next twelve months. Today's price divided by what analysts expect the company to earn over the coming year.
Profitability
↓Weak
Operating margin (and the wider return profile) tells you how efficiently each dollar of sales becomes profit. High and rising = pricing power; low or falling = the business is grinding.
Share count
→Stable
Are the buybacks outrunning the stock-based comp? A shrinking share count means every existing share owns a bigger slice of future earnings.
Debt load
↑Light
Total debt against cash and earnings power (EBITDA). Light debt leaves room to invest and weather downturns; heavy debt shrinks the margin for error.
Debt service
↑Strong
Whether the cash the business generates easily covers its interest and loan payments. Strong here = no forced selling in a bad year.
Cash return at today's price
↓2.4%
Free cash flow divided by market cap — the cash yield you're getting for the price you pay. Above ~6% is rich, below ~3% is thin. P/E shown when the yield is too small to be useful.
While the fundamental long-term thesis remains intact, the stock price requires further consolidation and a clearer technical setup before a buy action is warranted. The market has stabilized as expected, but the significant deviation from the weekly average still presents a risk, and contracting volume hints at a lack of immediate momentum. We are holding a 'WAIT' stance to observe for a more constructive entry point, such as a strong volume-backed move above short-term resistance or a deeper, but controlled, pullback to alleviate the weekly moving average deviation.
Short-term thesis
Nokia is poised to benefit significantly from the surging demand for AI backhaul and 5G infrastructure, positioning its IP Routing and optical network solutions as critical bottlenecks in the evolving digital landscape. Despite current weaknesses in profitability and recent revenue softness, the company's strong balance sheet and robust debt servicing provide a solid foundation to capture future demand. The long-term upside lies in its strategic position to monetize the escalating need for high-capacity, low-latency network solutions.
Long-term exposure
Maybe own
There is a case here, but one sleeve still needs work.
Entry window
Wait
The stock has remained stable following the previous week's decline, currently trading below its daily moving average but significantly above its weekly average. Volume has contracted, indicating a period of consolidation. We anticipate a continued wait-and-see approach this week as the market digests recent moves. A clear entry signal based on price action and volume is still needed.
Risk check
Fragile
The downside can widen quickly if this setup goes wrong.
Alignment
Mixed
Neither horizon fully wins, so size and patience matter.
What supports it
What limits it
Long-term thesis
The increasing digitalization and data explosion driven by AI and 5G necessitates massive upgrades to core network infrastructure. Nokia, as a key provider of IP routing and optical network solutions, is positioned to profit from this unavoidable demand for faster, higher-capacity data transport.
Bottleneck Role
Nokia's IP routing and optical network solutions are critical bottlenecks because they provide the fundamental logic-gates and transport layers required to handle the escalating data volumes and speed demands of AI and 5G. Without these specialized components, the broader digital infrastructure cannot scale to meet future needs, making Nokia's offerings indispensable.
Consensus Blind Spot
The market is overly focused on Nokia's current weak profitability and mixed quarterly results, possibly overlooking the long-term, sticky nature of demand for network infrastructure as AI and data processing scale. The consensus undervalues the indispensable bottleneck role Nokia plays in enabling this future, and how sustained demand will eventually translate into consistent margin improvement and earnings growth, even if current numbers are temporarily suppressed.
Demand Gap
There is a growing gap between the current network infrastructure capacity and the projected demand from AI, IoT, and advanced 5G services. Existing networks lack the speed, latency, and capacity required to support the full potential of these technologies, creating an urgent need for upgrades and expansion that Nokia is uniquely positioned to address.
Demand to Equity Scenarios
Slower-than-expected AI adoption or increased regulatory/geopolitical intervention in network buildouts.
Demand
-15%
Earnings
-25%
Equity implication
-40%
Reduced network CAPEX, leading to lower order intake and increased competitive pressure on pricing.
Steady, predictable growth in AI and 5G deployment, driving moderate, consistent network infrastructure upgrades.
Demand
+10%
Earnings
+15%
Equity implication
+25%
Consistent order flow, gradual improvement in utilization rates and stable pricing power.
Exponential growth in AI requiring rapid, widespread network upgrades, coupled with accelerated 5G penetration and enterprise private network adoption.
Demand
+30%
Earnings
+50%
Equity implication
+95%
Surging orders, high utilization of existing capacity, and significant pricing power, leading to substantial margin expansion.
Dependency Chain
Repricing Triggers
Must be true
Thesis broken if
What changed
Signal
Conviction
Long term
Stock
Added since last run
6No longer flagged
0Nothing dropped this run
My prior assessment that price was likely to stabilize around current levels and reconnect with short-term support was correct, as the price has shown minimal movement since then.
Jun 17, 2026
LatestUpdated Jun 17, 2026, 2:18 PM UTC
Price at review
$11.95
The stock has remained stable following the previous week's decline, currently trading below its daily moving average but significantly above its weekly average. Volume has contracted, indicating a period of consolidation. We anticipate a continued wait-and-see approach this week as the market digests recent moves. A clear entry signal based on price action and volume is still needed.
Jun 9, 2026
Updated Jun 9, 2026, 1:15 PM UTC
Price at review
$12.61
Price is likely to stabilize around current levels as it reconnects with short-term support.
Jun 2, 2026
Updated Jun 2, 2026, 9:00 AM UTC
Price at review
$14.44
The price is significantly overstretched and likely to experience a sharp cooling period.
May 21, 2026
Updated May 21, 2026, 11:21 PM UTC
Price at review
$12.10
The recent rapid climb has stalled, and the price is currently sitting in a high-risk zone. Waiting for a clearer entry point or a period of stability is the smarter move right now.
May 13, 2026
Updated May 13, 2026, 5:38 PM UTC
Price at review
$11.92
The current price surge is extremely vertical and lacks a safe entry point. While the long-term direction is positive, buying here carries high risk of a sudden sharp drop.
May 1, 2026
Updated May 1, 2026, 10:23 AM UTC
Price at review
$10.61
The uptrend remains powerful but the stock has become extremely stretched after a 56% move in 20 days, making fresh entries risky without some consolidation or cooling.