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Long termWATCH
NOKI
NOKIA.HE
Nokia Corporation

Latest update

$11.95

Updated: Jun 17, 2026, 2:18 PM UTC

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Metrics

Nokia Oyj: Mixed Fundamentals Amidst Network Infrastructure Demand

Nokia Oyj provides mobile, fixed, and cloud network solutions globally. While the company exhibits strong debt serviceability and a solid balance sheet, its profitability and return on capital remain weak. Recent Q1 2026 results showed a significant quarter-over-quarter decline in revenue and net income, though free cash flow improved substantially. The stock's valuation appears attractive on a forward P/E basis, but the current P/E is elevated, reflecting low earnings. Share count is stable, and dividends have shown a modest upward trend.

Growth pace
How fast the underlying business is moving, quarter by quarter. Hover any tile for the plain-English meaning.

Revenue

The total dollars the company billed customers. When this number grows quarter after quarter, the business is finding more demand.

quarterly

Latest

$4.5B

Q1 2026

The most recent reported figure, in the company's own currency and reporting cadence.

QoQ

-26.6%

vs Q4 2025

How much this quarter grew compared to last quarter. Useful for spotting acceleration or slowdown in real time.

YoY

+2.4%

vs Q1 2025

How much this quarter grew compared to the same quarter one year ago. Strips out seasonality — a slow holiday quarter looks worse QoQ but normal YoY.

CAGR

insufficient history

The smooth yearly growth rate that gets you from the starting value to the current value. A 100% CAGR over 3 years means the business tripled, on average, each year.

Net income

What's left from revenue after paying every cost — employees, materials, taxes, interest. Sometimes called profit or 'the bottom line.'

quarterly

Latest

$86M

Q1 2026

The most recent reported figure, in the company's own currency and reporting cadence.

QoQ

-84.1%

vs Q4 2025

How much this quarter grew compared to last quarter. Useful for spotting acceleration or slowdown in real time.

YoY

vs Q1 2025

How much this quarter grew compared to the same quarter one year ago. Strips out seasonality — a slow holiday quarter looks worse QoQ but normal YoY.

CAGR

insufficient history

The smooth yearly growth rate that gets you from the starting value to the current value. A 100% CAGR over 3 years means the business tripled, on average, each year.

Free cash flow

The cash actually left in the bank after the company has paid for everything and reinvested in itself. Harder to fake than net income.

quarterly

Latest

$629M

Q1 2026

The most recent reported figure, in the company's own currency and reporting cadence.

QoQ

+177.1%

vs Q4 2025

How much this quarter grew compared to last quarter. Useful for spotting acceleration or slowdown in real time.

YoY

-12.8%

vs Q1 2025

How much this quarter grew compared to the same quarter one year ago. Strips out seasonality — a slow holiday quarter looks worse QoQ but normal YoY.

CAGR

insufficient history

The smooth yearly growth rate that gets you from the starting value to the current value. A 100% CAGR over 3 years means the business tripled, on average, each year.

Quarterly revenue, net income & free cash flow
Bars show what the company actually reported each quarter. The growth chart below turns these into the QoQ / YoY pace the rest of this page uses.
Annual growth rate (YoY)
Year-over-year change in full-year totals. Strips out quarterly noise and seasonality so the multi-year trend is visible — not just the last 12 months.
Compound annual growth (CAGR)
The smooth yearly growth rate across each window. The "start → end" line shows the dollar value at the beginning and end of the window.
Metric3 yr2 yr1 yr
Revenue
+2.4%
$4.4B$4.5B
Net income
-5.9%
$90M$86M
Free cash flow
-12.8%
$721M$629M
Valuation — P/E

P/E TTM

85.3×

Trailing twelve months. Today's price divided by the last year of actual earnings.

P/E NTM

30.3×

Next twelve months. Today's price divided by what analysts expect the company to earn over the coming year.

Balance sheet & valuation
The five numbers that decide whether the growth above is safe, sustainable, and reasonably priced. Descriptions on every tile — hover or scroll to read.

Profitability

Weak

Operating margin (and the wider return profile) tells you how efficiently each dollar of sales becomes profit. High and rising = pricing power; low or falling = the business is grinding.

Share count

Stable

Are the buybacks outrunning the stock-based comp? A shrinking share count means every existing share owns a bigger slice of future earnings.

Debt load

Light

Total debt against cash and earnings power (EBITDA). Light debt leaves room to invest and weather downturns; heavy debt shrinks the margin for error.

Debt service

Strong

Whether the cash the business generates easily covers its interest and loan payments. Strong here = no forced selling in a bad year.

Cash return at today's price

2.4%

Free cash flow divided by market cap — the cash yield you're getting for the price you pay. Above ~6% is rich, below ~3% is thin. P/E shown when the yield is too small to be useful.

What stands out
  • Cash flow is improving, but sales are showing less consistency.
  • The business health, particularly concerning debt and solvency, appears to have improved faster than the stock's performance reflects.
  • The company maintains a light debt load with strong debt service coverage, indicating financial stability.
  • Despite positive aspects, fundamental profitability, operating margins, and overall earnings quality still require significant improvement.
  • The cash return at current prices is low, suggesting that the stock is not a value play based on cash yield alone.

Thesis

Why this read

While the fundamental long-term thesis remains intact, the stock price requires further consolidation and a clearer technical setup before a buy action is warranted. The market has stabilized as expected, but the significant deviation from the weekly average still presents a risk, and contracting volume hints at a lack of immediate momentum. We are holding a 'WAIT' stance to observe for a more constructive entry point, such as a strong volume-backed move above short-term resistance or a deeper, but controlled, pullback to alleviate the weekly moving average deviation.

Short-term thesis

Mixed70% conviction-5 ptsv1
Nokia's Path to AI-Driven Network Dominance

Nokia is poised to benefit significantly from the surging demand for AI backhaul and 5G infrastructure, positioning its IP Routing and optical network solutions as critical bottlenecks in the evolving digital landscape. Despite current weaknesses in profitability and recent revenue softness, the company's strong balance sheet and robust debt servicing provide a solid foundation to capture future demand. The long-term upside lies in its strategic position to monetize the escalating need for high-capacity, low-latency network solutions.

Long-term exposure

Maybe own

There is a case here, but one sleeve still needs work.

Entry window

Wait

The stock has remained stable following the previous week's decline, currently trading below its daily moving average but significantly above its weekly average. Volume has contracted, indicating a period of consolidation. We anticipate a continued wait-and-see approach this week as the market digests recent moves. A clear entry signal based on price action and volume is still needed.

Risk check

Fragile

The downside can widen quickly if this setup goes wrong.

Alignment

Mixed

Neither horizon fully wins, so size and patience matter.

What supports it

  • Price still looks reasonable against the business.
  • Balance sheet gives the thesis room to breathe.
  • Debt service still looks controlled against cash generation.
  • The setup is leaning on a pullback entry near support.

What limits it

  • This needs smaller size or more patience.
  • Margins or returns are too soft for a clean long hold.
  • One sleeve still needs more evidence.
  • The stock is trailing its sector by 7.2 points.

Long-term thesis

The increasing digitalization and data explosion driven by AI and 5G necessitates massive upgrades to core network infrastructure. Nokia, as a key provider of IP routing and optical network solutions, is positioned to profit from this unavoidable demand for faster, higher-capacity data transport.

84opportunity75% thesis conf
Crossing Chasm5y horizon

Bottleneck Role

Nokia's IP routing and optical network solutions are critical bottlenecks because they provide the fundamental logic-gates and transport layers required to handle the escalating data volumes and speed demands of AI and 5G. Without these specialized components, the broader digital infrastructure cannot scale to meet future needs, making Nokia's offerings indispensable.

Consensus Blind Spot

The market is overly focused on Nokia's current weak profitability and mixed quarterly results, possibly overlooking the long-term, sticky nature of demand for network infrastructure as AI and data processing scale. The consensus undervalues the indispensable bottleneck role Nokia plays in enabling this future, and how sustained demand will eventually translate into consistent margin improvement and earnings growth, even if current numbers are temporarily suppressed.

Demand Gap

There is a growing gap between the current network infrastructure capacity and the projected demand from AI, IoT, and advanced 5G services. Existing networks lack the speed, latency, and capacity required to support the full potential of these technologies, creating an urgent need for upgrades and expansion that Nokia is uniquely positioned to address.

Demand to Equity Scenarios

Bear70% conf

Slower-than-expected AI adoption or increased regulatory/geopolitical intervention in network buildouts.

Demand

-15%

Earnings

-25%

Equity implication

-40%

Reduced network CAPEX, leading to lower order intake and increased competitive pressure on pricing.

Base80% conf

Steady, predictable growth in AI and 5G deployment, driving moderate, consistent network infrastructure upgrades.

Demand

+10%

Earnings

+15%

Equity implication

+25%

Consistent order flow, gradual improvement in utilization rates and stable pricing power.

Bull65% conf

Exponential growth in AI requiring rapid, widespread network upgrades, coupled with accelerated 5G penetration and enterprise private network adoption.

Demand

+30%

Earnings

+50%

Equity implication

+95%

Surging orders, high utilization of existing capacity, and significant pricing power, leading to substantial margin expansion.

Dependency Chain

  1. 1Accelerating AI compute and cloud adoption
  2. 2Increased data traffic and demand for higher bandwidth
  3. 3Bottleneck in network backhaul capacity (IP routing, optical fiber)
  4. 4Increased capital expenditure by telecom operators and enterprises on Nokia's solutions
  5. 5Pricing power and margin expansion for Nokia
  6. 6Stronger earnings revisions and improved financial performance
  7. 7Equity repricing for Nokia based on future growth outlook

Repricing Triggers

  • Consistent reports of increasing IP routing and optical network segment order intake.
  • Positive earnings revisions driven by improving gross and operating margins.
  • Announcements of major strategic partnerships or large-scale infrastructure projects.
  • Analysts upgrading price targets citing long-term AI/5G growth inflection.

Must be true

  • AI and advanced digital services will continue their exponential growth trajectory, necessitating significant network enhancements.
  • Nokia's technology will remain competitive and relevant in the evolving networking landscape.
  • Telecom operators and enterprises will continue to invest heavily in upgrading their infrastructure.
  • Geopolitical risks will not severely disrupt global supply chains or market access for Nokia.

Thesis broken if

  • Prolonged periods of declining order intake for network infrastructure products.
  • Consistent erosion of gross and operating margins, indicating pricing pressure or inefficiency.
  • Competitors introducing superior or disruptive networking technologies that significantly erode Nokia's market share.
  • Major telecom operators signaling a slowdown in CAPEX spending on network upgrades.

History

What changed

Since the previous run · 1 month ago
Prior call was neutral

Signal

BUYBUY

Conviction

0.78%75%+74 pts

Long term

Maybe ownMaybe own

Stock

$12.61$11.95-5.3%

Added since last run

6
  • Stable price action after a significant pullback shows potential for consolidation.
  • Strong historical relative strength against the broader market over the longer term (60-day vs SPY).
  • Significant potential secular opportunity in AI backhaul and 5G infrastructure.
  • Price is still 33.4% above its weekly moving average, indicating potential for further reversion.
  • Contracting volume suggests a lack of immediate conviction from buyers.
  • Recent quarter-over-quarter decline in revenue and net income raises concerns about business momentum.

No longer flagged

0

Nothing dropped this run

Model's reflection on the prior call

My prior assessment that price was likely to stabilize around current levels and reconnect with short-term support was correct, as the price has shown minimal movement since then.

Analysis timeline
6 runs

Jun 17, 2026

Latest

Updated Jun 17, 2026, 2:18 PM UTC

WeeklyWAIT
Long termWATCH
Confidence75% · High

Price at review

$11.95

The stock has remained stable following the previous week's decline, currently trading below its daily moving average but significantly above its weekly average. Volume has contracted, indicating a period of consolidation. We anticipate a continued wait-and-see approach this week as the market digests recent moves. A clear entry signal based on price action and volume is still needed.

Jun 9, 2026

Updated Jun 9, 2026, 1:15 PM UTC

WeeklyWAIT
Long termWATCH
Confidence78% · High

Price at review

$12.61

Price is likely to stabilize around current levels as it reconnects with short-term support.

Jun 2, 2026

Updated Jun 2, 2026, 9:00 AM UTC

WeeklySELL
Long termWATCH
Confidence65% · Medium

Price at review

$14.44

The price is significantly overstretched and likely to experience a sharp cooling period.

May 21, 2026

Updated May 21, 2026, 11:21 PM UTC

WeeklyWAIT
Long termWATCH
Confidence70% · Medium

Price at review

$12.10

The recent rapid climb has stalled, and the price is currently sitting in a high-risk zone. Waiting for a clearer entry point or a period of stability is the smarter move right now.

May 13, 2026

Updated May 13, 2026, 5:38 PM UTC

WeeklyWAIT
Long termWATCH
Confidence80% · High

Price at review

$11.92

The current price surge is extremely vertical and lacks a safe entry point. While the long-term direction is positive, buying here carries high risk of a sudden sharp drop.

May 1, 2026

Updated May 1, 2026, 10:23 AM UTC

WeeklyWAIT
Long termWATCH
Confidence55% · Medium

Price at review

$10.61

The uptrend remains powerful but the stock has become extremely stretched after a 56% move in 20 days, making fresh entries risky without some consolidation or cooling.