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NASDAQ
WeeklySELL
Long termAVOID
NBIS
NBIS
Nebius Group N.V.

Latest update

$172

Updated: Jul 16, 2026, 8:45 PM UTC

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Metrics

Nebius Group N.V. (NBIS): AI Infrastructure Provider

Nebius Group N.V. is a technology company focused on providing full-stack infrastructure for the global AI industry, including large-scale GPU clusters and cloud platforms. The company, formerly Yandex N.V., also operates an edtech platform (TripleTen) and develops autonomous driving technology (Avride). It has a strategic alliance with NVIDIA for AI cloud infrastructure expansion. Revenue growth has been substantial, driven by AI infrastructure demand, but profitability metrics are mixed, with positive net income contrasting with negative operating margin and free cash flow. The balance sheet shows manageable debt, but debt service appears strained relative to current cash generation. The stock has experienced significant volatility.

Growth pace
How fast the underlying business is moving, quarter by quarter. Hover any tile for the plain-English meaning.

Revenue

The total dollars the company billed customers. When this number grows quarter after quarter, the business is finding more demand.

quarterly

Latest

$399M

Q1 2026

The most recent reported figure, in the company's own currency and reporting cadence.

QoQ

+75.2%

vs Q4 2025

How much this quarter grew compared to last quarter. Useful for spotting acceleration or slowdown in real time.

YoY

+683.9%

vs Q1 2025

How much this quarter grew compared to the same quarter one year ago. Strips out seasonality — a slow holiday quarter looks worse QoQ but normal YoY.

CAGR

insufficient history

The smooth yearly growth rate that gets you from the starting value to the current value. A 100% CAGR over 3 years means the business tripled, on average, each year.

Net income

What's left from revenue after paying every cost — employees, materials, taxes, interest. Sometimes called profit or 'the bottom line.'

quarterly

Latest

$621.2M

Q1 2026

The most recent reported figure, in the company's own currency and reporting cadence.

QoQ

vs Q4 2025

How much this quarter grew compared to last quarter. Useful for spotting acceleration or slowdown in real time.

YoY

vs Q1 2025

How much this quarter grew compared to the same quarter one year ago. Strips out seasonality — a slow holiday quarter looks worse QoQ but normal YoY.

CAGR

insufficient history

The smooth yearly growth rate that gets you from the starting value to the current value. A 100% CAGR over 3 years means the business tripled, on average, each year.

Free cash flow

The cash actually left in the bank after the company has paid for everything and reinvested in itself. Harder to fake than net income.

quarterly

Latest

-$214.9M

Q1 2026

The most recent reported figure, in the company's own currency and reporting cadence.

QoQ

vs Q4 2025

How much this quarter grew compared to last quarter. Useful for spotting acceleration or slowdown in real time.

YoY

vs Q1 2025

How much this quarter grew compared to the same quarter one year ago. Strips out seasonality — a slow holiday quarter looks worse QoQ but normal YoY.

CAGR

insufficient history

The smooth yearly growth rate that gets you from the starting value to the current value. A 100% CAGR over 3 years means the business tripled, on average, each year.

Quarterly revenue, net income & free cash flow
Bars show what the company actually reported each quarter. The growth chart below turns these into the QoQ / YoY pace the rest of this page uses.
Annual growth rate (YoY)
Year-over-year change in full-year totals. Strips out quarterly noise and seasonality so the multi-year trend is visible — not just the last 12 months.
Compound annual growth (CAGR)
The smooth yearly growth rate across each window. The "start → end" line shows the dollar value at the beginning and end of the window.
Metric3 yr2 yr1 yr
Revenue
+685.0%
$50.9M$399M
Net income
+8.5%
$584.5M$621.2M
Free cash flow
Valuation — P/E

P/E TTM

66.3×

Trailing twelve months. Today's price divided by the last year of actual earnings.

P/E NTM

475.5×

Next twelve months. Today's price divided by what analysts expect the company to earn over the coming year.

Balance sheet & valuation
The five numbers that decide whether the growth above is safe, sustainable, and reasonably priced. Descriptions on every tile — hover or scroll to read.

Profitability

Mixed

Operating margin (and the wider return profile) tells you how efficiently each dollar of sales becomes profit. High and rising = pricing power; low or falling = the business is grinding.

Share count

Shrinking

Are the buybacks outrunning the stock-based comp? A shrinking share count means every existing share owns a bigger slice of future earnings.

Debt load

Manageable

Total debt against cash and earnings power (EBITDA). Light debt leaves room to invest and weather downturns; heavy debt shrinks the margin for error.

Debt service

Weak

Whether the cash the business generates easily covers its interest and loan payments. Strong here = no forced selling in a bad year.

Cash return at today's price

-14.1%

Free cash flow divided by market cap — the cash yield you're getting for the price you pay. Above ~6% is rich, below ~3% is thin. P/E shown when the yield is too small to be useful.

What stands out
  • NBIS provides full-stack AI infrastructure, cloud platforms, and tools.
  • Strategic alliance with NVIDIA supports AI cloud expansion.
  • Reported strong YoY revenue growth of 683.9% ($399M Q1 2026).
  • Net income was positive at $621.2M in Q1 2026, but operating margin is negative (-32.1%).
  • Free cash flow remains negative at -$214.9M in Q1 2026.
  • Debt load is manageable, but debt service coverage is weak.
  • P/E ratio is 66.3x TTM, with a very high Fwd P/E of 475.5x, indicating investor expectation of substantial future earnings growth.

Thesis

Why this read

NBIS has undergone a severe markdown, falling significantly below its moving averages. The previous premise that a pullback offered an entry point was invalidated by continued heavy selling. Current price action, negative short-term momentum, and weak relative strength all point to a bearish trend. With a negative operating margin, negative free cash flow, and strained debt service, the fundamental picture is mixed and does not provide immediate support for the current valuation. The proximity of the next earnings report adds substantial uncertainty and event risk. Therefore, it is prudent to move to a SELL signal and avoid exposure this week.

Short-term thesis

Aligned39% conviction-21 ptsv1
AI Infrastructure Potential vs. Execution & Volatility

Nebius Group N.V. operates in the attractive and high-growth AI infrastructure market as a direct provider of GPU clusters and cloud platforms, positioning it to benefit from increasing demand for computing power. However, the company's financial performance shows a disconnect between robust revenue growth and consistent profitability, as evidenced by negative operating margins and free cash flow despite positive net income (potentially from non-operating gains). While the strategic alliance with NVIDIA is a long-term positive, current financial health indicators, particularly debt service, present risks. The significant price volatility and recent breakdown indicate that the market is struggling to reconcile the growth potential with current execution and valuation.

Long-term exposure

Avoid

The business or valuation backdrop is not ready for long-term conviction.

Entry window

Trim / avoid

The stock is in a confirmed markdown phase after a significant price decline. It is trading well below its short-term moving averages, and there are no immediate signs of a reversal. The upcoming earnings report adds significant event risk. Given the recent breakdown, avoiding further exposure or actively managing risk is advised this week.

Risk check

Fragile

The downside can widen quickly if this setup goes wrong.

Alignment

Aligned

The weekly weakness matches a poor long-term backdrop.

What supports it

  • Price still looks reasonable against the business.
  • Share count has been shrinking instead of diluting holders.
  • Still involved in the high-growth AI infrastructure space.
  • Exceptional revenue growth rates in a critical industry (683.9% YoY).

What limits it

  • This needs smaller size or more patience.
  • Debt service looks stretched for current cash generation.
  • The stock is lagging the broad market by 35.3 points over the past month.
  • The stock is trailing its sector by 35.5 points.

Long-term thesis

The increasing global demand for AI compute infrastructure and GPU clusters will create a sustained bottleneck, leading to high utilization and specialized offerings from providers like Nebius.

65opportunity60% thesis conf
Early Adopter5y horizon

Bottleneck Role

European Sovereign GPU Compute

Consensus Blind Spot

The market might be underestimating Nebius's ability to convert its high revenue growth from AI infrastructure into sustainable, positive operating margins and free cash flow in the mid-term due to strategic investments and scaling efforts that are not immediately reflected in current profitability metrics. The full impact of the NVIDIA partnership may also be underappreciated.

Demand Gap

The demand for high-performance computing required for training and deploying advanced AI models continues to outstrip supply, particularly for large, specialized GPU clusters and associated cloud services, creating a clear demand-supply imbalance that NBIS aims to fill.

Demand to Equity Scenarios

Bear70% conf

Slower AI adoption, increased competition, or supply chain issues for GPUs.

Demand

-20%

Earnings

-30%

Equity implication

-40%

Reduced GPU cluster utilization, pricing pressure, continued FCF drain.

Base75% conf

Continued strong AI adoption, effective utilization of existing capacity, and gradual improvement in operating efficiency.

Demand

+15%

Earnings

+10%

Equity implication

+20%

Consistent revenue growth, improved gross margins, and slower (but still negative) FCF burn as investments continue.

Bull65% conf

Accelerated AI model growth, significant new contract wins for GPU clusters, and successful monetization of value-added services reducing FCF burn.

Demand

+30%

Earnings

+50%

Equity implication

+70%

Higher-than-expected GPU cluster utilization, strong pricing power, and a faster path to FCF positivity.

Dependency Chain

  1. 1Explosive growth in AI model development and deployment
  2. 2Surging demand for specialized GPU compute clusters
  3. 3Scarcity of high-end GPUs and the infrastructure to support them
  4. 4Increased utilization and pricing power for AI infrastructure providers
  5. 5Stronger revenue growth and eventually, improved earnings for NBIS
  6. 6Equity repricing to reflect the captured value of this critical bottleneck.

Repricing Triggers

  • Reported progress on large-scale GPU cluster deployments and utilization rates.
  • Announcements of new strategic partnerships or major customer wins.
  • Evidence of sustained operating margin expansion and progress towards positive free cash flow.
  • Analyst consensus revisions upwards following earnings reports.
  • Clarity on the financial structure and benefits of the NVIDIA alliance.

Must be true

  • The global demand for AI compute will continue its exponential growth without significant political or regulatory headwinds.
  • Nebius will successfully scale its GPU infrastructure and secure sufficient GPU supply.
  • The company will eventually convert high revenue growth into sustainable operating profits and positive free cash flow.
  • The strategic alliance with NVIDIA provides a durable competitive advantage and technology access.

Thesis broken if

  • Deceleration in revenue growth rates (<20% YoY).
  • Continued or worsening negative free cash flow trends over several quarters.
  • Failure to expand operating margins or continued significant operating losses.
  • Increased competition leading to pricing pressure in GPU cluster services.
  • Delays or failures in deploying new infrastructure capacity.

History

What changed

Since the previous run · 1 month ago
Prior call was wrong

Signal

BUYSELLFlipped

Conviction

0.8%60%+59 pts

Long term

Maybe ownAvoidFlipped

Stock

$218.00$171.77-21.2%

Added since last run

8
  • Still involved in the high-growth AI infrastructure space.
  • Price 22% below daily 21 EMA, indicating strong downtrend.
  • Significant price deterioration since last call (-21.2%).
  • Negative momentum across 5-day and 20-day periods.
  • Weak relative strength against both the broader market and its sector.
  • Elevated debt service risk despite manageable debt.
  • Negative free cash flow.
  • Earnings report in 21 days introduces high event risk.

No longer flagged

0

Nothing dropped this run

Model's reflection on the prior call

The previous analysis was incorrect in assuming buyers would step in at the indicated support level. The stock broke significantly below this level, leading to a substantial loss. The assumption that the pullback to the EMA indicated decreasing sell-side pressure and balanced risk for entry proved false; selling pressure intensified.

Analysis timeline
6 runs

Jul 16, 2026

Latest

Updated Jul 16, 2026, 8:45 PM UTC

WeeklySELL
Long termAVOID
Confidence60% · Medium

Price at review

$172

The stock is in a confirmed markdown phase after a significant price decline. It is trading well below its short-term moving averages, and there are no immediate signs of a reversal. The upcoming earnings report adds significant event risk. Given the recent breakdown, avoiding further exposure or actively managing risk is advised this week.

Jun 9, 2026

Updated Jun 9, 2026, 1:15 PM UTC

WeeklyBUY
Long termWATCH
Confidence80% · High

Price at review

$218

The stock has finally come back down to earth and is resting on a key support level where buyers usually step in.

Jun 2, 2026

Updated Jun 2, 2026, 9:01 AM UTC

WeeklyWAIT
Long termWATCH
Confidence85% · High

Price at review

$265

The stock is currently hyper-extended and searching for a temporary ceiling before a healthy pause.

May 13, 2026

Updated May 13, 2026, 5:37 PM UTC

WeeklyWAIT
Long termWATCH
Confidence85% · High

Price at review

$214

The stock is in a powerful uptrend but is currently very far above its average price. Jumping in right now carries high risk of a quick pullback.

May 1, 2026

Updated May 1, 2026, 9:41 AM UTC

WeeklySELL
Long termWATCH
Confidence58% · Medium

Price at review

$138

The short-term setup has deteriorated meaningfully. Price broke below the daily 21 EMA with accelerating selling pressure after a failed hold at $141, suggesting the prior distribution phase is transitioning into active markdown rather than consolidation.

Jan 21, 1970

Updated Apr 27, 2026, 2:52 PM UTC

WeeklySELL
Confidence72% · Medium

Price at review

$142

Price has corrected 14.9% from its high but remains 30% above the weekly 21 EMA, suggesting extended prior move. Volume declining -30.8% on decline hints at distribution rather than healthy accumulation. Near-term bias lower toward $141 daily EMA and likely $130-$110 zone below.