Latest update
$172
Updated: Jul 16, 2026, 8:45 PM UTC
Browsing public data
Nebius Group N.V. is a technology company focused on providing full-stack infrastructure for the global AI industry, including large-scale GPU clusters and cloud platforms. The company, formerly Yandex N.V., also operates an edtech platform (TripleTen) and develops autonomous driving technology (Avride). It has a strategic alliance with NVIDIA for AI cloud infrastructure expansion. Revenue growth has been substantial, driven by AI infrastructure demand, but profitability metrics are mixed, with positive net income contrasting with negative operating margin and free cash flow. The balance sheet shows manageable debt, but debt service appears strained relative to current cash generation. The stock has experienced significant volatility.
Revenue
The total dollars the company billed customers. When this number grows quarter after quarter, the business is finding more demand.
Latest
↑$399M
Q1 2026
The most recent reported figure, in the company's own currency and reporting cadence.
QoQ
↑+75.2%
vs Q4 2025
How much this quarter grew compared to last quarter. Useful for spotting acceleration or slowdown in real time.
YoY
↑+683.9%
vs Q1 2025
How much this quarter grew compared to the same quarter one year ago. Strips out seasonality — a slow holiday quarter looks worse QoQ but normal YoY.
CAGR
•—
insufficient history
The smooth yearly growth rate that gets you from the starting value to the current value. A 100% CAGR over 3 years means the business tripled, on average, each year.
Net income
What's left from revenue after paying every cost — employees, materials, taxes, interest. Sometimes called profit or 'the bottom line.'
Latest
↑$621.2M
Q1 2026
The most recent reported figure, in the company's own currency and reporting cadence.
QoQ
•—
vs Q4 2025
How much this quarter grew compared to last quarter. Useful for spotting acceleration or slowdown in real time.
YoY
•—
vs Q1 2025
How much this quarter grew compared to the same quarter one year ago. Strips out seasonality — a slow holiday quarter looks worse QoQ but normal YoY.
CAGR
•—
insufficient history
The smooth yearly growth rate that gets you from the starting value to the current value. A 100% CAGR over 3 years means the business tripled, on average, each year.
Free cash flow
The cash actually left in the bank after the company has paid for everything and reinvested in itself. Harder to fake than net income.
Latest
↑-$214.9M
Q1 2026
The most recent reported figure, in the company's own currency and reporting cadence.
QoQ
•—
vs Q4 2025
How much this quarter grew compared to last quarter. Useful for spotting acceleration or slowdown in real time.
YoY
•—
vs Q1 2025
How much this quarter grew compared to the same quarter one year ago. Strips out seasonality — a slow holiday quarter looks worse QoQ but normal YoY.
CAGR
•—
insufficient history
The smooth yearly growth rate that gets you from the starting value to the current value. A 100% CAGR over 3 years means the business tripled, on average, each year.
| Metric | 3 yr | 2 yr | 1 yr |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | — | — | +685.0% $50.9M→$399M |
| Net income | — | — | +8.5% $584.5M→$621.2M |
| Free cash flow | — | — | — |
P/E TTM
↓66.3×
Trailing twelve months. Today's price divided by the last year of actual earnings.
P/E NTM
↓475.5×
Next twelve months. Today's price divided by what analysts expect the company to earn over the coming year.
Profitability
→Mixed
Operating margin (and the wider return profile) tells you how efficiently each dollar of sales becomes profit. High and rising = pricing power; low or falling = the business is grinding.
Share count
↑Shrinking
Are the buybacks outrunning the stock-based comp? A shrinking share count means every existing share owns a bigger slice of future earnings.
Debt load
→Manageable
Total debt against cash and earnings power (EBITDA). Light debt leaves room to invest and weather downturns; heavy debt shrinks the margin for error.
Debt service
↓Weak
Whether the cash the business generates easily covers its interest and loan payments. Strong here = no forced selling in a bad year.
Cash return at today's price
↓-14.1%
Free cash flow divided by market cap — the cash yield you're getting for the price you pay. Above ~6% is rich, below ~3% is thin. P/E shown when the yield is too small to be useful.
NBIS has undergone a severe markdown, falling significantly below its moving averages. The previous premise that a pullback offered an entry point was invalidated by continued heavy selling. Current price action, negative short-term momentum, and weak relative strength all point to a bearish trend. With a negative operating margin, negative free cash flow, and strained debt service, the fundamental picture is mixed and does not provide immediate support for the current valuation. The proximity of the next earnings report adds substantial uncertainty and event risk. Therefore, it is prudent to move to a SELL signal and avoid exposure this week.
Short-term thesis
Nebius Group N.V. operates in the attractive and high-growth AI infrastructure market as a direct provider of GPU clusters and cloud platforms, positioning it to benefit from increasing demand for computing power. However, the company's financial performance shows a disconnect between robust revenue growth and consistent profitability, as evidenced by negative operating margins and free cash flow despite positive net income (potentially from non-operating gains). While the strategic alliance with NVIDIA is a long-term positive, current financial health indicators, particularly debt service, present risks. The significant price volatility and recent breakdown indicate that the market is struggling to reconcile the growth potential with current execution and valuation.
Long-term exposure
Avoid
The business or valuation backdrop is not ready for long-term conviction.
Entry window
Trim / avoid
The stock is in a confirmed markdown phase after a significant price decline. It is trading well below its short-term moving averages, and there are no immediate signs of a reversal. The upcoming earnings report adds significant event risk. Given the recent breakdown, avoiding further exposure or actively managing risk is advised this week.
Risk check
Fragile
The downside can widen quickly if this setup goes wrong.
Alignment
Aligned
The weekly weakness matches a poor long-term backdrop.
What supports it
What limits it
Long-term thesis
The increasing global demand for AI compute infrastructure and GPU clusters will create a sustained bottleneck, leading to high utilization and specialized offerings from providers like Nebius.
Bottleneck Role
European Sovereign GPU Compute
Consensus Blind Spot
The market might be underestimating Nebius's ability to convert its high revenue growth from AI infrastructure into sustainable, positive operating margins and free cash flow in the mid-term due to strategic investments and scaling efforts that are not immediately reflected in current profitability metrics. The full impact of the NVIDIA partnership may also be underappreciated.
Demand Gap
The demand for high-performance computing required for training and deploying advanced AI models continues to outstrip supply, particularly for large, specialized GPU clusters and associated cloud services, creating a clear demand-supply imbalance that NBIS aims to fill.
Demand to Equity Scenarios
Slower AI adoption, increased competition, or supply chain issues for GPUs.
Demand
-20%
Earnings
-30%
Equity implication
-40%
Reduced GPU cluster utilization, pricing pressure, continued FCF drain.
Continued strong AI adoption, effective utilization of existing capacity, and gradual improvement in operating efficiency.
Demand
+15%
Earnings
+10%
Equity implication
+20%
Consistent revenue growth, improved gross margins, and slower (but still negative) FCF burn as investments continue.
Accelerated AI model growth, significant new contract wins for GPU clusters, and successful monetization of value-added services reducing FCF burn.
Demand
+30%
Earnings
+50%
Equity implication
+70%
Higher-than-expected GPU cluster utilization, strong pricing power, and a faster path to FCF positivity.
Dependency Chain
Repricing Triggers
Must be true
Thesis broken if
What changed
Signal
Conviction
Long term
Stock
Added since last run
8No longer flagged
0Nothing dropped this run
The previous analysis was incorrect in assuming buyers would step in at the indicated support level. The stock broke significantly below this level, leading to a substantial loss. The assumption that the pullback to the EMA indicated decreasing sell-side pressure and balanced risk for entry proved false; selling pressure intensified.
Jul 16, 2026
LatestUpdated Jul 16, 2026, 8:45 PM UTC
Price at review
$172
The stock is in a confirmed markdown phase after a significant price decline. It is trading well below its short-term moving averages, and there are no immediate signs of a reversal. The upcoming earnings report adds significant event risk. Given the recent breakdown, avoiding further exposure or actively managing risk is advised this week.
Jun 9, 2026
Updated Jun 9, 2026, 1:15 PM UTC
Price at review
$218
The stock has finally come back down to earth and is resting on a key support level where buyers usually step in.
Jun 2, 2026
Updated Jun 2, 2026, 9:01 AM UTC
Price at review
$265
The stock is currently hyper-extended and searching for a temporary ceiling before a healthy pause.
May 13, 2026
Updated May 13, 2026, 5:37 PM UTC
Price at review
$214
The stock is in a powerful uptrend but is currently very far above its average price. Jumping in right now carries high risk of a quick pullback.
May 1, 2026
Updated May 1, 2026, 9:41 AM UTC
Price at review
$138
The short-term setup has deteriorated meaningfully. Price broke below the daily 21 EMA with accelerating selling pressure after a failed hold at $141, suggesting the prior distribution phase is transitioning into active markdown rather than consolidation.
Jan 21, 1970
Updated Apr 27, 2026, 2:52 PM UTC
Price at review
$142
Price has corrected 14.9% from its high but remains 30% above the weekly 21 EMA, suggesting extended prior move. Volume declining -30.8% on decline hints at distribution rather than healthy accumulation. Near-term bias lower toward $141 daily EMA and likely $130-$110 zone below.