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Micron Technology, Inc.

Latest update

$853

Updated: Jul 16, 2026, 8:51 PM UTC

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Metrics

Micron Technology (MU): Strong Fundamentals Amidst Tactical Pullback

Micron Technology, a key player in memory and storage, demonstrates robust financial health with explosive growth in revenue, net income, and free cash flow. The company boasts high profitability margins and a strong balance sheet, supported by light debt and strong debt service coverage. Valuation appears attractive on a forward-looking basis.

Growth pace
How fast the underlying business is moving, quarter by quarter. Hover any tile for the plain-English meaning.

Revenue

The total dollars the company billed customers. When this number grows quarter after quarter, the business is finding more demand.

quarterly

Latest

$41.5B

Q2 2026

The most recent reported figure, in the company's own currency and reporting cadence.

QoQ

+73.7%

vs Q1 2026

How much this quarter grew compared to last quarter. Useful for spotting acceleration or slowdown in real time.

YoY

+345.7%

vs Q2 2025

How much this quarter grew compared to the same quarter one year ago. Strips out seasonality — a slow holiday quarter looks worse QoQ but normal YoY.

CAGR

insufficient history

The smooth yearly growth rate that gets you from the starting value to the current value. A 100% CAGR over 3 years means the business tripled, on average, each year.

Net income

What's left from revenue after paying every cost — employees, materials, taxes, interest. Sometimes called profit or 'the bottom line.'

quarterly

Latest

$28.2B

Q2 2026

The most recent reported figure, in the company's own currency and reporting cadence.

QoQ

+104.9%

vs Q1 2026

How much this quarter grew compared to last quarter. Useful for spotting acceleration or slowdown in real time.

YoY

+1398.3%

vs Q2 2025

How much this quarter grew compared to the same quarter one year ago. Strips out seasonality — a slow holiday quarter looks worse QoQ but normal YoY.

CAGR

insufficient history

The smooth yearly growth rate that gets you from the starting value to the current value. A 100% CAGR over 3 years means the business tripled, on average, each year.

Free cash flow

The cash actually left in the bank after the company has paid for everything and reinvested in itself. Harder to fake than net income.

quarterly

Latest

$17.6B

Q2 2026

The most recent reported figure, in the company's own currency and reporting cadence.

QoQ

+218.4%

vs Q1 2026

How much this quarter grew compared to last quarter. Useful for spotting acceleration or slowdown in real time.

YoY

+951.0%

vs Q2 2025

How much this quarter grew compared to the same quarter one year ago. Strips out seasonality — a slow holiday quarter looks worse QoQ but normal YoY.

CAGR

insufficient history

The smooth yearly growth rate that gets you from the starting value to the current value. A 100% CAGR over 3 years means the business tripled, on average, each year.

Quarterly revenue, net income & free cash flow
Bars show what the company actually reported each quarter. The growth chart below turns these into the QoQ / YoY pace the rest of this page uses.
Annual growth rate (YoY)
Year-over-year change in full-year totals. Strips out quarterly noise and seasonality so the multi-year trend is visible — not just the last 12 months.
Compound annual growth (CAGR)
The smooth yearly growth rate across each window. The "start → end" line shows the dollar value at the beginning and end of the window.
Metric3 yr2 yr1 yr
Revenue
+346.2%
$9.3B$41.5B
Net income
+1401.1%
$1.9B$28.2B
Free cash flow
+952.7%
$1.7B$17.6B
Valuation — P/E

P/E TTM

19.3×

Trailing twelve months. Today's price divided by the last year of actual earnings.

P/E NTM

5.7×

Next twelve months. Today's price divided by what analysts expect the company to earn over the coming year.

Balance sheet & valuation
The five numbers that decide whether the growth above is safe, sustainable, and reasonably priced. Descriptions on every tile — hover or scroll to read.

Profitability

Strong

Operating margin (and the wider return profile) tells you how efficiently each dollar of sales becomes profit. High and rising = pricing power; low or falling = the business is grinding.

Share count

Stable

Are the buybacks outrunning the stock-based comp? A shrinking share count means every existing share owns a bigger slice of future earnings.

Debt load

Light

Total debt against cash and earnings power (EBITDA). Light debt leaves room to invest and weather downturns; heavy debt shrinks the margin for error.

Debt service

Strong

Whether the cash the business generates easily covers its interest and loan payments. Strong here = no forced selling in a bad year.

Cash return at today's price

0.8%

Free cash flow divided by market cap — the cash yield you're getting for the price you pay. Above ~6% is rich, below ~3% is thin. P/E shown when the yield is too small to be useful.

What stands out
  • Micron's revenue, net income, and free cash flow have shown exceptional year-over-year growth of 345.7%, 1398.3%, and 951.0% respectively.
  • The company maintains strong profitability with a 55.9% profit margin, 80.4% operating margin, and 72.6% gross margin, along with high ROE (66.6%) and ROA (34.9%).
  • The balance sheet is robust, characterized by light debt, strong debt service capabilities (EBITDA $68.22B, Op cash $51.43B), and healthy liquidity (current ratio 3.4, quick ratio 2.9).
  • Forward P/E of 5.7x suggests an attractive valuation relative to its trailing P/E of 19.3x, implying significant expected earnings growth.
  • Despite strong growth metrics, the cash return at today's price is low at 0.8%, and the stock price has run ahead of the business in some aspects historically.

Thesis

Why this read

Micron’s fundamental story remains compelling, indicating a healthy business in a strong growth cycle. However, the stock is currently undergoing a tactical markdown, making this week less ideal for immediate entry. We are waiting for the price to stabilize or show renewed strength before re-engaging, even though the broader trend is positive. The disconnect between excellent long-term fundamentals and recent short-term price decline necessitates a cautious approach this week.

Short-term thesis

Aligned70% conviction+5 ptsv1
Micron: A Foundational AI Enabler with Strong Financials

Micron is exceptionally well-positioned to capitalize on the secular demand for high-performance memory driven by AI and data center expansion. The company's explosive financial growth, robust profitability, and solid balance sheet underscore its market leadership. Despite recent tactical stock weakness, its attractive forward valuation and critical role in enabling advanced computing suggest significant upside as demand continues to translate into strong earnings.

Long-term exposure

Own

The business backdrop is strong enough for long-term exposure.

Entry window

Wait

Micron is in a medium-term markup phase driven by strong fundamentals and secular tailwinds. However, this week's price action shows a continued tactical pullback, with the stock trading significantly below its short-term average and contracting volume. While the long-term outlook remains positive, patience is advised as we await a more constructive entry point or confirmation of support.

Risk check

Watch

Risk is manageable, but position size and timing still matter.

Alignment

Aligned

The weekly setup and the long-term case are pulling together.

What supports it

  • Sales and cash still support a long hold.
  • Price still looks reasonable against the business.
  • Balance sheet gives the thesis room to breathe.
  • Debt service still looks controlled against cash generation.

What limits it

  • The stock is lagging the broad market by 16.5 points over the past month.
  • The stock is trailing its sector by 11.6 points.
  • Significant short-term price pullback (-13.96% in 5 days) indicating selling pressure and profit-taking.
  • The cyclical nature of the semiconductor industry, despite current secular tailwinds.

Long-term thesis

The exponential growth of AI and advanced data center infrastructure creating insatiable demand for high-performance memory solutions.

90opportunity80% thesis conf
Crossing Chasm5y horizon

Bottleneck Role

Micron acts as a critical bottleneck facilitator, providing the advanced memory and storage solutions (HBM, CXL, LPDDR) that are essential for unlocking the full potential of AI and next-generation data center infrastructure. Without sufficient supply of these specialized products, the scaling of these technologies would be severely constrained.

Consensus Blind Spot

The market consistently underestimates the long-term magnitude and duration of AI-driven memory demand, often applying traditional cyclical valuations to what is becoming a structural demand shift. This leads to conservative earnings forecasts and a potentially undervalued stock, especially during tactical pullbacks.

Demand Gap

There is a significant and growing gap between the rapidly escalating demand for specialized AI memory (HBM, LPDDR5X/6, CXL-enabled DRAM) and the current and projected supply capacity. This imbalance ensures sustained pricing power and high utilization for leading manufacturers like Micron.

Demand to Equity Scenarios

Bull85% conf

Accelerated AI adoption and enterprise AI infrastructure build-out

Demand

Earnings

+75%

Equity implication

+100%

Micron captures higher market share in HBM/CXL, leading to higher ASPs and increased sales volume for high-margin products.

Base90% conf

Steady growth in AI, cloud computing, and automotive memory

Demand

Earnings

+40%

Equity implication

+50%

Consistent demand for standard DRAM and NAND, stable ASPs, and gradual increase in HBM/CXL sales.

Bear50% conf

Global economic slowdown leading to reduced tech spending and oversupply in commodity memory

Demand

Earnings

-25%

Equity implication

-35%

Lower average selling prices across all memory segments, reduced capacity utilization, and delayed AI infrastructure investments.

Dependency Chain

  1. 1Accelerated AI adoption and sophistication
  2. 2Increased demand for high-performance computing (HPC)
  3. 3Bottleneck in specialized memory (HBM, CXL, LPDDR)
  4. 4Micron's increased utilization and pricing power for these critical components
  5. 5Explosive revenue and free cash flow growth for Micron
  6. 6Significant upward earnings revisions and equity repricing.

Repricing Triggers

  • Consistent beats on earnings and revenue driven by HBM/AI segment performance.
  • Upward revisions to analyst consensus estimates for future quarters and years.
  • Announcements of new design wins with major AI/data center customers.
  • Positive commentary from management on inventory levels, pricing power, and future capacity expansion.
  • Overall industry reports indicating continued tight supply for high-end memory.

Must be true

  • AI adoption continues its rapid acceleration, driving demand for specialized memory.
  • Micron maintains its technological leadership in HBM and other advanced memory solutions.
  • Pricing power for advanced memory products remains strong due to supply constraints.
  • Global macroeconomic conditions do not deter significant capital expenditure in data centers.
  • Micron's operational efficiency and profitability are sustained or improved.

Thesis broken if

  • Significant deceleration in AI accelerator sales or data center build-outs.
  • Evidence of market oversupply in HBM or other high-end memory segments.
  • Micron losing market share or failing to innovate in advanced memory.
  • Consistent negative earnings revisions or guidance reductions.
  • Deterioration of gross margins or increasing inventory levels.

History

What changed

Since the previous run · 11 days ago
Prior call was neutral

Signal

BUYBUY

Conviction

70%65%-5 pts

Long term

OwnOwn

Stock

$908.40$853.20-6.1%

Added since last run

9
  • Explosive revenue and earnings growth indicating strong demand for its products.
  • Robust profitability and efficient operations with high margins.
  • Strong balance sheet and debt servicing capacity provide financial stability.
  • Attractive forward valuation suggesting significant embedded earnings growth expectations.
  • Long-term secular tailwinds from AI and data center demand.
  • Significant short-term price pullback (-13.96% in 5 days) indicating selling pressure and profit-taking.
  • Price trading 12.9% below daily 21 EMA suggests short-term weakness and a break in recent trend.
  • Contracting volume (-30.0%) during the pullback could indicate exhaustion of selling, but also lack of strong buying interest.
  • Upcoming earnings event in 69 days presents event risk.

No longer flagged

0

Nothing dropped this run

Model's reflection on the prior call

The prior reasoning correctly identified strong fundamentals and a broader markup cycle. It was also accurate in cautioning that the recent sharp decline and trading below the short-term average warranted patience and a wait-and-see approach, as the stock indeed saw minimal movement following the call.

Analysis timeline
2 runs

Jul 16, 2026

Latest

Updated Jul 16, 2026, 8:51 PM UTC

WeeklyWAIT
Long termOWN
Confidence65% · Medium

Price at review

$853

Micron is in a medium-term markup phase driven by strong fundamentals and secular tailwinds. However, this week's price action shows a continued tactical pullback, with the stock trading significantly below its short-term average and contracting volume. While the long-term outlook remains positive, patience is advised as we await a more constructive entry point or confirmation of support.

Jul 7, 2026

Updated Jul 7, 2026, 2:18 PM UTC

WeeklyWAIT
Long termOWN
Confidence70% · Medium

Price at review

$908

Micron's fundamentals remain exceptionally strong, indicating a continued markup phase over the medium term. However, the stock's recent sharp decline and trading below its short-term average suggest caution is warranted this week. We are waiting for more constructive price action or a retest of longer-term support before considering a new entry, especially given the significant run-up and recent retracement. The overall trend is still positive, but tactical patience is advised.