Back
NYSE
WeeklyWAIT
Long termAVOID
LLY
LLY
Eli Lilly and Company

Latest update

$1,114

Updated: Jun 17, 2026, 1:43 PM UTC

Browsing public data

Metrics

Eli Lilly and Company: Strong Growth, Premium Valuation, and Debt Considerations

Eli Lilly and Company is a global pharmaceutical company focused on discovering, developing, manufacturing, and marketing human pharmaceutical products across various therapeutic areas including cardiometabolic health, oncology, and immunology. The company has demonstrated significant revenue and net income growth, largely driven by its portfolio of diabetes and obesity drugs. While its profitability and operational efficiency are strong, its valuation appears stretched, and the balance sheet carries a heavy debt load. Shareholder returns are friendly with a shrinking share count.

Growth pace
How fast the underlying business is moving, quarter by quarter. Hover any tile for the plain-English meaning.

Revenue

The total dollars the company billed customers. When this number grows quarter after quarter, the business is finding more demand.

quarterly

Latest

$19.8B

Q1 2026

The most recent reported figure, in the company's own currency and reporting cadence.

QoQ

+2.6%

vs Q4 2025

How much this quarter grew compared to last quarter. Useful for spotting acceleration or slowdown in real time.

YoY

+55.5%

vs Q1 2025

How much this quarter grew compared to the same quarter one year ago. Strips out seasonality — a slow holiday quarter looks worse QoQ but normal YoY.

CAGR

insufficient history

The smooth yearly growth rate that gets you from the starting value to the current value. A 100% CAGR over 3 years means the business tripled, on average, each year.

Net income

What's left from revenue after paying every cost — employees, materials, taxes, interest. Sometimes called profit or 'the bottom line.'

quarterly

Latest

$7.4B

Q1 2026

The most recent reported figure, in the company's own currency and reporting cadence.

QoQ

+11.4%

vs Q4 2025

How much this quarter grew compared to last quarter. Useful for spotting acceleration or slowdown in real time.

YoY

+168.1%

vs Q1 2025

How much this quarter grew compared to the same quarter one year ago. Strips out seasonality — a slow holiday quarter looks worse QoQ but normal YoY.

CAGR

insufficient history

The smooth yearly growth rate that gets you from the starting value to the current value. A 100% CAGR over 3 years means the business tripled, on average, each year.

Free cash flow

The cash actually left in the bank after the company has paid for everything and reinvested in itself. Harder to fake than net income.

quarterly

Latest

$2.8B

Q1 2026

The most recent reported figure, in the company's own currency and reporting cadence.

QoQ

+1002.7%

vs Q4 2025

How much this quarter grew compared to last quarter. Useful for spotting acceleration or slowdown in real time.

YoY

vs Q1 2025

How much this quarter grew compared to the same quarter one year ago. Strips out seasonality — a slow holiday quarter looks worse QoQ but normal YoY.

CAGR

insufficient history

The smooth yearly growth rate that gets you from the starting value to the current value. A 100% CAGR over 3 years means the business tripled, on average, each year.

Quarterly revenue, net income & free cash flow
Bars show what the company actually reported each quarter. The growth chart below turns these into the QoQ / YoY pace the rest of this page uses.
Annual growth rate (YoY)
Year-over-year change in full-year totals. Strips out quarterly noise and seasonality so the multi-year trend is visible — not just the last 12 months.
Compound annual growth (CAGR)
The smooth yearly growth rate across each window. The "start → end" line shows the dollar value at the beginning and end of the window.
Metric3 yr2 yr1 yr
Revenue
+55.6%
$12.7B$19.8B
Net income
+168.2%
$2.8B$7.4B
Free cash flow
+183.4%
$1.3B$2.8B
Valuation — P/E

P/E TTM

39.5×

Trailing twelve months. Today's price divided by the last year of actual earnings.

P/E NTM

25.0×

Next twelve months. Today's price divided by what analysts expect the company to earn over the coming year.

Balance sheet & valuation
The five numbers that decide whether the growth above is safe, sustainable, and reasonably priced. Descriptions on every tile — hover or scroll to read.

Profitability

Strong

Operating margin (and the wider return profile) tells you how efficiently each dollar of sales becomes profit. High and rising = pricing power; low or falling = the business is grinding.

Share count

Shrinking

Are the buybacks outrunning the stock-based comp? A shrinking share count means every existing share owns a bigger slice of future earnings.

Debt load

Heavy

Total debt against cash and earnings power (EBITDA). Light debt leaves room to invest and weather downturns; heavy debt shrinks the margin for error.

Debt service

Strong

Whether the cash the business generates easily covers its interest and loan payments. Strong here = no forced selling in a bad year.

Cash return at today's price

0.9%

Free cash flow divided by market cap — the cash yield you're getting for the price you pay. Above ~6% is rich, below ~3% is thin. P/E shown when the yield is too small to be useful.

What stands out
  • Eli Lilly has experienced substantial revenue growth of 55.5% and net income growth of 168.1% year-over-year, driven by its diverse product pipeline.
  • The company maintains strong profitability with operating margins of 49.4% and high returns on equity (107.5%) and assets (20.7%).
  • Despite strong cash flow generation ($9.16B FCF LTM), the company's valuation metrics, like a P/E of 39.5x and a cash return of 0.9%, suggest the stock is trading at a premium.
  • The balance sheet shows a heavy debt load (D/E 139.0), although strong debt service indicates sufficient operating cash to cover interest payments.
  • Shareholder-friendly actions include a shrinking share count and increasing dividend per share.

Thesis

Why this read

Eli Lilly remains in a well-defined uptrend, propelled by its strong business fundamentals, particularly in key growth areas. The stock's positive short and medium-term price action, coupled with significant outperformance against the market and its sector, indicates sustained investor interest. However, with the price consolidating near its short-term average after a strong run and volume pulling back, it suggests the stock needs more time to build energy or digest recent gains. This makes a more patient approach advisable for the current week, despite the underlying constructive cycle.

Short-term thesis

Mixed75% conviction+5 ptsv1
Size small or stay away

The risk sleeve is too fragile to support aggressive exposure.

Long-term exposure

Avoid

The business or valuation backdrop is not ready for long-term conviction.

Entry window

Wait

The stock has shown strong upward momentum over recent weeks, with its current price comfortably above longer-term averages. While the overall trend remains positive, this week's price action sees the stock resting near its short-term average amidst contracting interest. This pause suggests a need for consolidation before a potential next leg higher, making a tactical entry less immediate.

Risk check

Fragile

The downside can widen quickly if this setup goes wrong.

Alignment

Mixed

Neither horizon fully wins, so size and patience matter.

What supports it

  • Sales and cash still support a long hold.
  • Margins and returns still support the long hold.
  • Share count has been shrinking instead of diluting holders.
  • The stock is leading the broad market by 6.7 points over the past month.

What limits it

  • This needs smaller size or more patience.
  • Balance sheet is carrying real pressure.
  • Debt service looks stretched for current cash generation.
  • Price already asks a lot from the business.

Long-term thesis

Long-term demand in metabolic and oncology medicines, driven by aging populations and lifestyle factors.

88opportunity80% thesis conf
Crossing Chasm5y horizon

Bottleneck Role

Eli Lilly acts as a critical bottleneck through its proprietary, high-efficacy drug development and manufacturing capabilities for conditions like type 2 diabetes and obesity (Mounjaro, Zepbound). The high barriers to entry in pharmaceutical R&D, clinical trials, and regulatory approvals for novel mechanisms of action create a scarcity of highly effective treatments, which Eli Lilly is uniquely positioned to supply.

Consensus Blind Spot

The market might be underestimating the sustained pricing power and long-term volume growth for next-generation metabolic drugs like GLP-1 agonists, and Eli Lilly's ability to expand treatment indications or develop even more effective follow-on compounds. There's also potential for new oncology treatments to gain market share faster than forecast.

Demand Gap

There is a substantial and growing gap between the prevalence of chronic metabolic diseases (obesity, type 2 diabetes) and the availability of highly effective, safe, and accessible treatments. Eli Lilly's current and pipeline products directly address this unmet medical need.

Demand to Equity Scenarios

Bear70% conf

Increased competition or unexpected safety concerns for key drugs slowing adoption.

Demand

-15%

Earnings

-20%

Equity implication

-25%

Reduced sales volume for Mounjaro/Zepbound, requiring price cuts or increased R&D spend to maintain share.

Base80% conf

Steady adoption of current drugs in existing indications with sustained pricing.

Demand

+15%

Earnings

+18%

Equity implication

+20%

Growth in existing markets, stable margins, continued investment in pipeline.

Bull65% conf

Faster than expected adoption, new indications, or superior pipeline drug launches.

Demand

+30%

Earnings

+40%

Equity implication

+50%

Significantly higher sales volumes, enhanced pricing power due to increased market dominance, and accelerated pipeline monetization.

Dependency Chain

  1. 1Global metabolic disease rates (diabetes, obesity) continue to rise
  2. 2Eli Lilly's innovative drug pipeline addresses these conditions effectively
  3. 3Strong demand for advanced treatments drives utilization and pricing power
  4. 4Increased sales and margins translate to higher earnings revisions
  5. 5Equity repricing as market recognizes sustained growth and leadership

Repricing Triggers

  • Strong earnings beats and positive guidance revisions driven by Mounjaro/Zepbound sales.
  • Clinical trial successes or regulatory approvals for new indications or compounds.
  • Positive readouts from competitors' drug trials (or lack thereof) highlighting Eli Lilly's lead.
  • Acquisitions or partnerships that bolster the pipeline in high-growth therapeutic areas.

Must be true

  • Eli Lilly will maintain its leadership position and pricing power in the GLP-1 and oncology markets.
  • The global prevalence of metabolic diseases and certain cancers will continue to increase.
  • Regulatory environments will remain favorable for new drug approvals and patent protection.
  • The company's R&D productivity will continue to yield blockbuster drugs.
  • Economic conditions will support patient access and affordability of high-cost therapeutics.

Thesis broken if

  • Significant PBM pushback leading to unexpected rebates or formulary exclusions for key drugs.
  • Rapid erosion of market share due to superior competitive offerings.
  • Unexpected clinical trial failures or major safety concerns impacting flagship products.
  • Negative regulatory decisions or IP challenges.
  • Persistent decline in revenue growth rates and margin compression.

History

Analysis timeline
1 runs

Jun 17, 2026

Latest

Updated Jun 17, 2026, 1:43 PM UTC

WeeklyWAIT
Long termAVOID
Confidence70% · Medium

Price at review

$1,114

The stock has shown strong upward momentum over recent weeks, with its current price comfortably above longer-term averages. While the overall trend remains positive, this week's price action sees the stock resting near its short-term average amidst contracting interest. This pause suggests a need for consolidation before a potential next leg higher, making a tactical entry less immediate.