Latest update
$706
Updated: Jul 16, 2026, 8:51 PM UTC
Browsing public data
Lumentum Holdings Inc. is a manufacturer of optical and photonic products, serving the Cloud & Networking segment (including AI/ML infrastructure and cloud data centers) and the Industrial Tech segment. The company has experienced significant revenue and free cash flow growth recently, with a 90.1% YoY revenue increase and a 1454.3% YoY free cash flow increase. Profitability metrics like operating margin and gross margin are strong. However, the business operates with a high P/E ratio, and its debt service metrics appear weak despite a manageable debt load. The stock has underperformed SPY and its sector over the last 20 and 60 days.
Revenue
The total dollars the company billed customers. When this number grows quarter after quarter, the business is finding more demand.
Latest
↑$808.4M
Q1 2026
The most recent reported figure, in the company's own currency and reporting cadence.
QoQ
↑+21.5%
vs Q4 2025
How much this quarter grew compared to last quarter. Useful for spotting acceleration or slowdown in real time.
YoY
↑+90.1%
vs Q1 2025
How much this quarter grew compared to the same quarter one year ago. Strips out seasonality — a slow holiday quarter looks worse QoQ but normal YoY.
CAGR
•—
insufficient history
The smooth yearly growth rate that gets you from the starting value to the current value. A 100% CAGR over 3 years means the business tripled, on average, each year.
Net income
What's left from revenue after paying every cost — employees, materials, taxes, interest. Sometimes called profit or 'the bottom line.'
Latest
↑$144.2M
Q1 2026
The most recent reported figure, in the company's own currency and reporting cadence.
QoQ
↑+84.4%
vs Q4 2025
How much this quarter grew compared to last quarter. Useful for spotting acceleration or slowdown in real time.
YoY
•—
vs Q1 2025
How much this quarter grew compared to the same quarter one year ago. Strips out seasonality — a slow holiday quarter looks worse QoQ but normal YoY.
CAGR
•—
insufficient history
The smooth yearly growth rate that gets you from the starting value to the current value. A 100% CAGR over 3 years means the business tripled, on average, each year.
Free cash flow
The cash actually left in the bank after the company has paid for everything and reinvested in itself. Harder to fake than net income.
Latest
↑$79.1M
Q1 2026
The most recent reported figure, in the company's own currency and reporting cadence.
QoQ
↑+83.5%
vs Q4 2025
How much this quarter grew compared to last quarter. Useful for spotting acceleration or slowdown in real time.
YoY
•—
vs Q1 2025
How much this quarter grew compared to the same quarter one year ago. Strips out seasonality — a slow holiday quarter looks worse QoQ but normal YoY.
CAGR
•—
insufficient history
The smooth yearly growth rate that gets you from the starting value to the current value. A 100% CAGR over 3 years means the business tripled, on average, each year.
| Metric | 3 yr | 2 yr | 1 yr |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | — | — | +90.2% $425.2M→$808.4M |
| Net income | — | — | -40.7% $213.3M→$144.2M |
| Free cash flow | — | — | +1454.3% $10.1M→$79.1M |
P/E TTM
↑123.5×
Trailing twelve months. Today's price divided by the last year of actual earnings.
P/E NTM
↑38.6×
Next twelve months. Today's price divided by what analysts expect the company to earn over the coming year.
Profitability
↑Strong
Operating margin (and the wider return profile) tells you how efficiently each dollar of sales becomes profit. High and rising = pricing power; low or falling = the business is grinding.
Share count
↑Shrinking
Are the buybacks outrunning the stock-based comp? A shrinking share count means every existing share owns a bigger slice of future earnings.
Debt load
→Manageable
Total debt against cash and earnings power (EBITDA). Light debt leaves room to invest and weather downturns; heavy debt shrinks the margin for error.
Debt service
↓Weak
Whether the cash the business generates easily covers its interest and loan payments. Strong here = no forced selling in a bad year.
Cash return at today's price
↓0.2%
Free cash flow divided by market cap — the cash yield you're getting for the price you pay. Above ~6% is rich, below ~3% is thin. P/E shown when the yield is too small to be useful.
The stock is in a clear markdown phase, trading well below key moving averages with contracting volume. While the fundamental long-term story might be intact, the current technical setup is strongly bearish. Tactical action should be defensive, prioritizing capital preservation over potential early entry.
Short-term thesis
Lumentum is fundamentally positioned as a crucial supplier of Indium Phosphide (InP) lasers, which are essential for next-generation 1.6T networking in AI/ML and cloud infrastructure. This bottleneck position provides a strong secular tailwind. Despite this long-term demand, the stock is currently in a severe markdown phase due to short-term market dynamics and high valuation. While the business demonstrates robust revenue and FCF growth and strong profitability, its weak debt service metrics and stretched valuation present risks. The thesis hinges on the conviction that persistent demand for its specialized technology will eventually override current financial and technical headwinds.
Long-term exposure
Avoid
The business or valuation backdrop is not ready for long-term conviction.
Entry window
Wait
Lumentum is experiencing a significant markdown, with the price trending down and far below key moving averages. Volume is contracting, indicating a lack of buying interest to push it higher. The persistent weakness suggests that any entry attempts should be deferred until the stock shows clear signs of stabilization or reversal, such as reclaiming prior support levels or its 21-day moving averages.
Risk check
Fragile
The downside can widen quickly if this setup goes wrong.
Alignment
Aligned
The weekly weakness matches a poor long-term backdrop.
What supports it
What limits it
Long-term thesis
The increasing demand for high-speed data transfer driven by AI/ML and cloud computing will necessitate an upgrade to 1.6T networking technology, where Lumentum's proprietary InP lasers are a critical and scarce component.
Bottleneck Role
Lumentum’s InP (Indium Phosphide) lasers are a critical and scarce component for the next generation of 1.6T networking technology. Their advanced performance is essential for meeting the stringent requirements of high-speed data transfer in AI/ML and cloud infrastructure, creating a supply bottleneck.
Consensus Blind Spot
The market might be underestimating the stickiness and essential nature of Lumentum's InP laser technology, focusing too much on near-term valuation and cyclical fluctuations in the broader tech sector, rather than the embedded, long-term demand for a truly mission-critical component in AI's foundational layer.
Demand Gap
The current networking infrastructure cannot adequately support the escalating data demands of advanced AI/ML models and hyper-scale cloud operations, creating a significant demand gap for 1.6T speed upgrades that require Lumentum's specialized components.
Demand to Equity Scenarios
Slower-than-expected AI/ML infrastructure build-out or delays in 1.6T adoption.
Demand
-15%
Earnings
-25%
Equity implication
-30%
Reduced order volumes for critical components, increased pricing pressure due to slower demand.
Steady, strong adoption of AI/ML and 1.6T networking as projected.
Demand
+20%
Earnings
+20%
Equity implication
+25%
Consistent order flow and stable pricing for Lumentum's specialized components.
Faster-than-expected industry-wide upgrade to 1.6T, Lumentum secures dominant market share.
Demand
+40%
Earnings
+40%
Equity implication
+50%
Surge in demand, potential for premium pricing, and market share gains due to scarcity.
Dependency Chain
Repricing Triggers
Must be true
Thesis broken if
What changed
Signal
Conviction
Long term
Stock
Added since last run
5No longer flagged
0Nothing dropped this run
The prior call's reasoning to 'WAIT' for a reclaim of the $916 level was directionally correct in anticipating continued consolidation or weakness, as the stock has declined significantly since then. The assumption that the 'long-term trend remain positive' was accurate, but the current price action shows that a tactical 'WAIT' for an entry was justified, preventing capital impairment.
Jul 16, 2026
LatestUpdated Jul 16, 2026, 8:51 PM UTC
Price at review
$706
Lumentum is experiencing a significant markdown, with the price trending down and far below key moving averages. Volume is contracting, indicating a lack of buying interest to push it higher. The persistent weakness suggests that any entry attempts should be deferred until the stock shows clear signs of stabilization or reversal, such as reclaiming prior support levels or its 21-day moving averages.
Jun 17, 2026
Updated Jun 17, 2026, 2:19 PM UTC
Price at review
$879
LITE is currently in a sideways consolidation phase after a strong run. While the long-term trend remains positive, tactical entry is not ideal at this precise moment. Waiting for the stock to reclaim the $916 level or show clear upward momentum will offer a more favorable entry point. Volume contraction suggests a lack of immediate directional conviction, supporting a wait-and-see approach.
Jun 9, 2026
Updated Jun 9, 2026, 1:15 PM UTC
Price at review
$895
The stock is likely to trade in a tight range as it tries to find its footing after a shallow dip. Expect sideways movement before the next major push.
Jun 2, 2026
Updated Jun 2, 2026, 9:01 AM UTC
Price at review
$905
The recent dip toward the short-term trend line provides a healthier entry point for those looking to build a position during this growth phase.
May 13, 2026
Updated May 13, 2026, 5:35 PM UTC
Price at review
$1,038
The trend is very strong but prices are currently too far above a safe entry point. Wait for a short-term cooling period before adding new positions.
Jan 21, 1970
Updated Apr 24, 2026, 6:03 PM UTC
Price at review
$895
LITE is currently exhibiting topping behavior near its 52-week high, with weakening volume suggesting a potential pullback. While the weekly trend remains positive, the short-term momentum appears unsustainable given stretched valuation. Monitor closely for confirmation of a breakdown below support.