Latest update
$134
Updated: Jun 18, 2026, 9:19 PM UTC
Browsing public data
Intel (INTC) operates in the Technology sector, specifically Semiconductors, designing, developing, manufacturing, marketing, selling, and servicing computing and related end products. The company has diversified segments including Client Computing Group (CCG), Data Center and AI (DCAI), and Intel Foundry. Recent financial data reveals a company with significant market capitalization ($673.4B) but currently challenged fundamentals. Quarterly revenue is $13.6B, showing 7.2% YoY growth but a slight QoQ decline. Intel is unprofitable with a net income of -$3.7B and negative free cash flow of -$2.5B. Shareholder returns have been impacted by dilution and reduced dividends. The balance sheet appears manageable from a debt perspective, but debt service coverage is weak. Valuation is stretched with a forward P/E of 86.7x.
Revenue
The total dollars the company billed customers. When this number grows quarter after quarter, the business is finding more demand.
Latest
↓$13.6B
Q1 2026
The most recent reported figure, in the company's own currency and reporting cadence.
QoQ
→-0.7%
vs Q4 2025
How much this quarter grew compared to last quarter. Useful for spotting acceleration or slowdown in real time.
YoY
→+7.2%
vs Q1 2025
How much this quarter grew compared to the same quarter one year ago. Strips out seasonality — a slow holiday quarter looks worse QoQ but normal YoY.
CAGR
•—
insufficient history
The smooth yearly growth rate that gets you from the starting value to the current value. A 100% CAGR over 3 years means the business tripled, on average, each year.
Net income
What's left from revenue after paying every cost — employees, materials, taxes, interest. Sometimes called profit or 'the bottom line.'
Latest
↓-$3.7B
Q1 2026
The most recent reported figure, in the company's own currency and reporting cadence.
QoQ
•—
vs Q4 2025
How much this quarter grew compared to last quarter. Useful for spotting acceleration or slowdown in real time.
YoY
•—
vs Q1 2025
How much this quarter grew compared to the same quarter one year ago. Strips out seasonality — a slow holiday quarter looks worse QoQ but normal YoY.
CAGR
•—
insufficient history
The smooth yearly growth rate that gets you from the starting value to the current value. A 100% CAGR over 3 years means the business tripled, on average, each year.
Free cash flow
The cash actually left in the bank after the company has paid for everything and reinvested in itself. Harder to fake than net income.
Latest
↓-$2.5B
Q1 2026
The most recent reported figure, in the company's own currency and reporting cadence.
QoQ
↓-417.5%
vs Q4 2025
How much this quarter grew compared to last quarter. Useful for spotting acceleration or slowdown in real time.
YoY
•—
vs Q1 2025
How much this quarter grew compared to the same quarter one year ago. Strips out seasonality — a slow holiday quarter looks worse QoQ but normal YoY.
CAGR
•—
insufficient history
The smooth yearly growth rate that gets you from the starting value to the current value. A 100% CAGR over 3 years means the business tripled, on average, each year.
| Metric | 3 yr | 2 yr | 1 yr |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | — | — | +7.2% $12.7B→$13.6B |
| Net income | — | — | — |
| Free cash flow | — | — | — |
P/E TTM
•—
Trailing twelve months. Today's price divided by the last year of actual earnings.
P/E NTM
•86.7×
Next twelve months. Today's price divided by what analysts expect the company to earn over the coming year.
Profitability
↓Weak
Operating margin (and the wider return profile) tells you how efficiently each dollar of sales becomes profit. High and rising = pricing power; low or falling = the business is grinding.
Share count
↓Diluting
Are the buybacks outrunning the stock-based comp? A shrinking share count means every existing share owns a bigger slice of future earnings.
Debt load
→Manageable
Total debt against cash and earnings power (EBITDA). Light debt leaves room to invest and weather downturns; heavy debt shrinks the margin for error.
Debt service
↓Weak
Whether the cash the business generates easily covers its interest and loan payments. Strong here = no forced selling in a bad year.
Cash return at today's price
↓-1.2%
Free cash flow divided by market cap — the cash yield you're getting for the price you pay. Above ~6% is rich, below ~3% is thin. P/E shown when the yield is too small to be useful.
Despite positive price action and momentum this week, INTC remains in a precarious position. The stock is extremely overextended from its moving averages, currently 64.7% above its weekly 21 EMA. This level of extension often precedes a significant retracement. While momentum is strong in the short term, the underlying fundamentals are still strained, characterized by negative free cash flow and net income, high valuation multiples, and ongoing shareholder dilution. Given the magnitude of the recent rally, and the existing fundamental weaknesses, the risk of a sharp reversal is high. Therefore, while the current impulse is up, we are not advocating for a chase. A 'WAIT' call is appropriate to observe if the price can consolidate these gains or if a correction materializes, which would offer a more attractive entry point if the long-term thesis were to improve.
Short-term thesis
Intel (INTC) is currently experiencing a significant tactical price appreciation, indicating a short-term markup cycle. However, this surge is occurring despite a backdrop of strained financial fundamentals, including negative profitability, stretched valuation, and shareholder dilution. While the company's 18A process technology holds substantial secular opportunity as a bottleneck in advanced semiconductor manufacturing, current financial health does not support the recent price levels, making new capital deployment highly risky. We recommend a cautious stance, waiting for either a significant price correction or tangible improvements in financial performance.
Long-term exposure
Avoid
The business or valuation backdrop is not ready for long-term conviction.
Entry window
Wait
Intel has experienced a strong upward move, currently trading at a significant premium above its weekly moving average. This rapid price appreciation indicates a short-term markup, but the extreme extension suggests a pullback or consolidation is likely. The underlying fundamental weakness and stretched valuation, despite the strong price action, warrant caution. For this week, the prudent approach is to wait for more clarity on whether this surge is sustainable or if a correction is imminent.
Risk check
Fragile
The downside can widen quickly if this setup goes wrong.
Alignment
Aligned
The weekly weakness matches a poor long-term backdrop.
What supports it
What limits it
Long-term thesis
Intel's 18A process technology and its broader foundry ambitions position the company as a potential cornerstone for advanced semiconductor manufacturing, crucial for meeting surging demand in AI and high-performance computing.
Bottleneck Role
Intel's 18A process technology is a critical bottleneck in the advanced semiconductor manufacturing landscape. As demand for cutting-edge chips (especially for AI and high-performance computing) outstrips current fabrication capacity, Intel's ability to offer this technology can position it as a key enabler for the industry, commanding premium pricing and utilization.
Consensus Blind Spot
The market may be underestimating the long-term structural demand shift towards diversified, geographically resilient, and technologically advanced foundry options, moving beyond a single dominant player. Intel's deep integration capabilities (IDM 2.0) could offer a unique value proposition that current valuation multiples, focused on legacy business, don't fully capture.
Demand Gap
The escalating demand for AI accelerators, high-performance computing, and specialized chips exceeds the current and near-term projected capacity, particularly for leading-edge process technologies. This gap creates a strategic opening for Intel's foundry business.
Demand to Equity Scenarios
Slower-than-expected adoption of 18A due to execution delays, increased competition, or customer reluctance.
Demand
-25%
Earnings
-25%
Equity implication
-30%
Underutilization of foundry capacity, margin compression, and significant R&D write-downs.
Steady demand for advanced chips and moderate success of 18A, with Intel securing a meaningful but not dominant market share.
Demand
+10%
Earnings
+15%
Equity implication
+20%
Gradual revenue growth in foundry, improved but still modest profitability, and increased but not premium utilization.
Explosive demand for AI/HPC chips, combined with successful execution and rapid ramp-up of 18A, establishing Intel as a critical foundry partner.
Demand
+30%
Earnings
+50%
Equity implication
+70%
High utilization rates, strong pricing power, significant market share gains, and strong positive operating leverage.
Dependency Chain
Repricing Triggers
Must be true
Thesis broken if
What changed
Signal
Conviction
Long term
Stock
Added since last run
8No longer flagged
0Nothing dropped this run
The previous sell call at $116.96 was incorrect as the stock moved significantly against the predicted direction, rising by 14.6%. The reasoning, which focused on overextension and a likely pullback within a broader distribution, failed to account for the actual upward momentum.
Jun 18, 2026
LatestUpdated Jun 18, 2026, 9:19 PM UTC
Price at review
$134
Intel has experienced a strong upward move, currently trading at a significant premium above its weekly moving average. This rapid price appreciation indicates a short-term markup, but the extreme extension suggests a pullback or consolidation is likely. The underlying fundamental weakness and stretched valuation, despite the strong price action, warrant caution. For this week, the prudent approach is to wait for more clarity on whether this surge is sustainable or if a correction is imminent.
Jun 12, 2026
Updated Jun 12, 2026, 9:58 AM UTC
Price at review
$117
Intel experienced a strong move upward this week, but the stock remains significantly extended above its weekly moving average. Given the prior trend of distribution and the current overextension, a pullback is likely in the near term. We continue to see the current price as a selling opportunity for those looking to reduce exposure.
Jun 4, 2026
Updated Jun 4, 2026, 11:12 PM UTC
Price at review
$112
Expect further price erosion as the stock struggles to find support above the $100 level.
May 28, 2026
Updated May 28, 2026, 9:43 PM UTC
Price at review
$121
The stock remains deeply overextended and is likely to see further profit-taking. Recent price action suggests buyers are exhausted after the failed attempt to sustain new highs.
May 19, 2026
Updated May 19, 2026, 8:39 AM UTC
Price at review
$108
The recent price drop and fading trading activity suggest the top is in. Expect a continued move lower as the enthusiasm cools and the gap with the long-term average remains massive.
May 9, 2026
Updated May 9, 2026, 9:37 AM UTC
Price at review
$125
The stock is in a full-blown vertical blow-out phase that has moved too far, too fast to be sustainable. Expect a violent correction to reality once the current buying mania exhausts itself.