Latest update
$354
Updated: Jul 16, 2026, 8:48 PM UTC
Browsing public data
Alphabet (GOOGL) reported Q1 2026 revenue of $109.9B, marking a healthy 21.8% year-over-year growth, despite a slight quarterly dip. Net income surged by 81.2% year-over-year to $62.6B, showcasing robust profitability with operating margins at 36.1% and a profit margin of 37.9%. The company maintains a strong balance sheet with light debt, excellent debt service coverage (EBITDA $161.32B, Op cash $174.35B), and a current ratio of 1.9. Share count is shrinking, indicating shareholder-friendly capital allocation. However, free cash flow decreased by 46.6% year-over-year to $10.1B, and the stock's valuation (P/E TTM 27.1x, NTM 24.3x) is considered stretched compared to historical valuations, especially given the current cash return of 0.6%.
Revenue
The total dollars the company billed customers. When this number grows quarter after quarter, the business is finding more demand.
Latest
↓$109.9B
Q1 2026
The most recent reported figure, in the company's own currency and reporting cadence.
QoQ
→-3.5%
vs Q4 2025
How much this quarter grew compared to last quarter. Useful for spotting acceleration or slowdown in real time.
YoY
↑+21.8%
vs Q1 2025
How much this quarter grew compared to the same quarter one year ago. Strips out seasonality — a slow holiday quarter looks worse QoQ but normal YoY.
CAGR
•—
insufficient history
The smooth yearly growth rate that gets you from the starting value to the current value. A 100% CAGR over 3 years means the business tripled, on average, each year.
Net income
What's left from revenue after paying every cost — employees, materials, taxes, interest. Sometimes called profit or 'the bottom line.'
Latest
↑$62.6B
Q1 2026
The most recent reported figure, in the company's own currency and reporting cadence.
QoQ
↑+81.6%
vs Q4 2025
How much this quarter grew compared to last quarter. Useful for spotting acceleration or slowdown in real time.
YoY
↑+81.2%
vs Q1 2025
How much this quarter grew compared to the same quarter one year ago. Strips out seasonality — a slow holiday quarter looks worse QoQ but normal YoY.
CAGR
•—
insufficient history
The smooth yearly growth rate that gets you from the starting value to the current value. A 100% CAGR over 3 years means the business tripled, on average, each year.
Free cash flow
The cash actually left in the bank after the company has paid for everything and reinvested in itself. Harder to fake than net income.
Latest
↓$10.1B
Q1 2026
The most recent reported figure, in the company's own currency and reporting cadence.
QoQ
↓-58.8%
vs Q4 2025
How much this quarter grew compared to last quarter. Useful for spotting acceleration or slowdown in real time.
YoY
↓-46.6%
vs Q1 2025
How much this quarter grew compared to the same quarter one year ago. Strips out seasonality — a slow holiday quarter looks worse QoQ but normal YoY.
CAGR
•—
insufficient history
The smooth yearly growth rate that gets you from the starting value to the current value. A 100% CAGR over 3 years means the business tripled, on average, each year.
| Metric | 3 yr | 2 yr | 1 yr |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | — | — | +21.8% $90.2B→$109.9B |
| Net income | — | — | +81.2% $34.5B→$62.6B |
| Free cash flow | — | — | -46.6% $19B→$10.1B |
P/E TTM
↑27.1×
Trailing twelve months. Today's price divided by the last year of actual earnings.
P/E NTM
↑24.3×
Next twelve months. Today's price divided by what analysts expect the company to earn over the coming year.
Profitability
↑Strong
Operating margin (and the wider return profile) tells you how efficiently each dollar of sales becomes profit. High and rising = pricing power; low or falling = the business is grinding.
Share count
↑Shrinking
Are the buybacks outrunning the stock-based comp? A shrinking share count means every existing share owns a bigger slice of future earnings.
Debt load
↑Light
Total debt against cash and earnings power (EBITDA). Light debt leaves room to invest and weather downturns; heavy debt shrinks the margin for error.
Debt service
↑Strong
Whether the cash the business generates easily covers its interest and loan payments. Strong here = no forced selling in a bad year.
Cash return at today's price
↓0.6%
Free cash flow divided by market cap — the cash yield you're getting for the price you pay. Above ~6% is rich, below ~3% is thin. P/E shown when the yield is too small to be useful.
Alphabet's underlying business strength and strategic positioning in AI remain compelling. However, the current technical setup shows renewed selling pressure, with price dipping below short-term averages and volume contracting. The pending earnings report in six days adds a significant layer of event risk. While the overall cycle remains in accumulation, a tactical 'WAIT' is appropriate due to short-term weakness and the looming earnings catalyst, allowing time to assess post-earnings performance before committing capital.
Short-term thesis
The risk sleeve is too fragile to support aggressive exposure.
Long-term exposure
Maybe own
There is a case here, but one sleeve still needs work.
Entry window
Wait
The stock is currently experiencing a pullback, trading below short-term averages. While the longer-term trend remains constructive, there's near-term pressure. Given the upcoming earnings report and the recent price action, it's prudent to wait for more clarity. Strong support is anticipated around $338, which aligns with key moving averages.
Risk check
Fragile
The downside can widen quickly if this setup goes wrong.
Alignment
Mixed
Neither horizon fully wins, so size and patience matter.
What supports it
What limits it
Long-term thesis
Alphabet's unique vertical integration of custom silicon (TPU) with AI models and applications is a foundational play on the accelerating demand for AI inference, driving a significant cost advantage that will lead to superior earnings growth.
Bottleneck Role
Low-cost AI inference provider via custom silicon. Alphabet controls the entire stack from chip design to model deployment, creating a moat against competitors reliant on third-party hardware.
Consensus Blind Spot
The market is underestimating the magnitude of margin expansion and competitive advantage derived from Alphabet's custom silicon (TPU) strategy, focusing too much on near-term competitive threats in search rather than the long-term AI moat.
Demand Gap
The demand for efficient, scalable, and cost-effective AI inference is outstripping current supply, creating a bottleneck that Alphabet's vertically integrated TPU architecture is uniquely positioned to address.
Demand to Equity Scenarios
Slower-than-anticipated AI adoption or increased competitive pressure from other chip/cloud providers.
Demand
-15%
Earnings
-10%
Equity implication
-20%
Reduced TPU utilization, higher cost-per-inference, and slower growth in AI-driven advertising/cloud services.
Steady growth in AI-powered search and broader enterprise AI adoption, with Alphabet maintaining its cost efficiency advantage.
Demand
+25%
Earnings
+15%
Equity implication
+25%
Increased TPU utilization, sustained cost-per-inference improvements, and moderate expansion in AI-driven margins.
Explosive growth in AI applications across all segments, with Alphabet's TPU architecture becoming the standard for efficient inference, leading to significant market share gains.
Demand
+50%
Earnings
+30%
Equity implication
+50%
Maximized TPU utilization, dramatic reduction in cost-per-inference, and rapid margin expansion across Google Services and Cloud.
Dependency Chain
Repricing Triggers
Must be true
Thesis broken if
What changed
Signal
Conviction
Long term
Stock
Added since last run
8No longer flagged
0Nothing dropped this run
Correct. The previous call to wait was appropriate as the stock continued its floor-finding process, dropping by 4.44% today following the 3.47% decline since the prior update. The stock has indeed been digesting its recent run.
Jul 16, 2026
LatestUpdated Jul 16, 2026, 8:48 PM UTC
Price at review
$354
The stock is currently experiencing a pullback, trading below short-term averages. While the longer-term trend remains constructive, there's near-term pressure. Given the upcoming earnings report and the recent price action, it's prudent to wait for more clarity. Strong support is anticipated around $338, which aligns with key moving averages.
Jun 9, 2026
Updated Jun 9, 2026, 1:15 PM UTC
Price at review
$363
The stock is currently searching for a stable base after a sharp rejection from recent highs.
Jun 2, 2026
Updated Jun 2, 2026, 9:03 AM UTC
Price at review
$376
The stock is currently cooling off after a strong run, searching for a floor near recent averages.