Latest update
$99.70
Updated: Jun 12, 2026, 9:58 AM UTC
Browsing public data
Exail Technologies (EXA.PA) is an Aerospace & Defense company based in France, specialized in robotics, maritime, navigation, aerospace, and photonics technologies. It serves customers across Europe, Africa, Americas, Oceania, and Asia through its Navigation & Maritime Robotics and Advanced Technologies segments. The company demonstrates strong revenue growth at 22.3% and free cash flow (FCF) increasing at a 30.5% 3-year CAGR, with the latest FCF at $65M.
Free cash flow
The cash actually left in the bank after the company has paid for everything and reinvested in itself. Harder to fake than net income.
Latest
↑$65M
2025
The most recent reported figure, in the company's own currency and reporting cadence.
QoQ
↑+14.6%
vs 2024
How much this quarter grew compared to last quarter. Useful for spotting acceleration or slowdown in real time.
YoY
•—
How much this quarter grew compared to the same quarter one year ago. Strips out seasonality — a slow holiday quarter looks worse QoQ but normal YoY.
CAGR
•+30.5% annualised
since 2022 · 3.0y
The smooth yearly growth rate that gets you from the starting value to the current value. A 100% CAGR over 3 years means the business tripled, on average, each year.
| Metric | 3 yr | 2 yr | 1 yr |
|---|---|---|---|
| Free cash flow | +30.5% $29.3M→$65M | +65.1% $23.8M→$65M | +14.7% $56.7M→$65M |
P/E TTM
↑553.9×
Trailing twelve months. Today's price divided by the last year of actual earnings.
P/E NTM
↑26.3×
Next twelve months. Today's price divided by what analysts expect the company to earn over the coming year.
Profitability
↓Weak
Operating margin (and the wider return profile) tells you how efficiently each dollar of sales becomes profit. High and rising = pricing power; low or falling = the business is grinding.
Share count
→Stable
Are the buybacks outrunning the stock-based comp? A shrinking share count means every existing share owns a bigger slice of future earnings.
Debt load
→Manageable
Total debt against cash and earnings power (EBITDA). Light debt leaves room to invest and weather downturns; heavy debt shrinks the margin for error.
Debt service
↓Weak
Whether the cash the business generates easily covers its interest and loan payments. Strong here = no forced selling in a bad year.
Cash return at today's price
↓2.6%
Free cash flow divided by market cap — the cash yield you're getting for the price you pay. Above ~6% is rich, below ~3% is thin. P/E shown when the yield is too small to be useful.
The stock has entered a clear markdown cycle, indicated by the sharp price drop, high volume selling, and current price being significantly below key technical levels. The weakness in relative strength and poor fundamental profitability means there's no technical or fundamental support for maintaining a long position. Risk management dictates reducing exposure or avoiding this stock at present.
Short-term thesis
Exail Technologies operates in a high-demand sector, characterized by its niche in ITAR-free navigation and broader robotics/photonics. While the company demonstrates strong revenue and FCF growth driven by secular trends like seabed warfare, its recurring profitability and debt service capabilities remain weak, presenting a disconnect between promising top-line expansion and bottom-line health. The current market reaction reflects a reassessment of its valuation amidst these underlying fundamental concerns, despite previous assumptions of sustained growth.
Long-term exposure
Avoid
The business or valuation backdrop is not ready for long-term conviction.
Entry window
Trim / avoid
The stock has experienced a significant price drop, placing it well below its key moving averages. Volume expanded during this decline, indicating strong selling pressure. Given the current momentum and technical setup, further downside pressure is likely.
Risk check
Fragile
The downside can widen quickly if this setup goes wrong.
Alignment
Aligned
The weekly weakness matches a poor long-term backdrop.
What supports it
What limits it
Long-term thesis
The increasing global demand for advanced robotics, maritime, and navigation technologies, especially in defense and underwater applications, driven by geopolitical tensions and the strategic importance of seabed warfare capabilities.
Bottleneck Role
Exail Technologies is a high-scarcity provider of ITAR-free navigation systems, crucial for defense contractors outside of the US domain, particularly for emerging underwater autonomous vehicle (UUV) programs.
Consensus Blind Spot
The market might be underestimating the long-term, non-cyclical nature of defense spending on critical, specialized components like ITAR-free navigation, and the potential for margin expansion as demand crystalizes and scale increases, or overestimating the impact of near-term profitability pressures.
Demand Gap
A growing gap exists between the strategic military necessity for advanced, autonomous underwater capabilities and the availability of proven, compliant, and export-friendly technologies for non-US allied nations.
Demand to Equity Scenarios
Global defense spending shifts away from naval/underwater focus; major UUV program cancellations; non-defense segment underperforms.
Demand
-15%
Earnings
-25%
Equity implication
-40%
Reduced order intake, delay in new contracts, increased competition for existing programs.
Continued steady growth in seabed warfare investments; moderate adoption of UUVs globally; Exail maintains market share.
Demand
+10%
Earnings
+15%
Equity implication
+25%
Consistent order flow, gradual expansion of backlog, stable revenue growth with some margin pressure.
Accelerated global UUV adoption linked to new geopolitical conflicts; Exail secures significant multi-year contracts; successful entry into new markets/applications.
Demand
+25%
Earnings
+40%
Equity implication
+60%
Rapidly expanding order book, significant revenue acceleration, potential for operating leverage and margin expansion.
Dependency Chain
Repricing Triggers
Must be true
Thesis broken if
What changed
Signal
Conviction
Long term
Stock
Added since last run
5No longer flagged
0Nothing dropped this run
The prior call recognized the overextension in price but was incorrect in assuming the long-term upward trend would remain unbroken after neutralizing the pullback. The magnitude of the subsequent decline against the predicted direction (-26.5%) indicates that the entry point was not safe, and the market correction was far more severe than anticipated, implying underlying fundamental or sentiment issues were underestimated.
Jun 12, 2026
LatestUpdated Jun 12, 2026, 9:58 AM UTC
Price at review
$99.70
The stock has experienced a significant price drop, placing it well below its key moving averages. Volume expanded during this decline, indicating strong selling pressure. Given the current momentum and technical setup, further downside pressure is likely.
Jun 5, 2026
Updated Jun 5, 2026, 9:37 AM UTC
Price at review
$136
The price has dropped enough to provide a safer entry point while the long-term upward trend remains unbroken.
May 29, 2026
Updated May 29, 2026, 8:44 AM UTC
Price at review
$145
The stock is currently too far above safe entry points to buy today. Wait for a cooling-off period to bring the price back toward its recent average.
May 13, 2026
Updated May 13, 2026, 5:38 PM UTC
Price at review
$111
The stock is currently searching for a floor after falling through key support levels. Expect continued pressure until price stabilizes and volume dries up.
Jan 21, 1970
Updated Apr 24, 2026, 6:02 PM UTC
Price at review
$120
EXA.PA is currently trading below its daily 21 EMA, but significantly above its weekly 21 EMA, suggesting a longer-term uptrend with short-term weakness. The potential for a consolidation breakout near the daily EMA warrants attention for a potential buying opportunity. We will monitor for bullish price action in the coming days to confirm an accumulation phase.