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WeeklyWAIT
Long termAVOID
ENI.
ENI.MI
ENI

Latest update

$22.75

Updated: Jun 12, 2026, 9:58 AM UTC

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Metrics

Eni S.p.A. (ENI.MI) - Strained Fundamentals Amidst Energy Transition

Eni S.p.A. is an integrated energy company involved in traditional oil & gas, as well as renewable energy, biofuels, and power. Recent performance indicates a strained fundamental posture with weak profitability, negative free cash flow, and heavy debt. While the company is actively expanding its renewable and decarbonization efforts, current financial metrics show a business facing headwinds. Revenue growth is modest at 4.7% YoY, but net income decreased by 8.6% YoY, and free cash flow turned significantly negative to -$1B in Q1 2026.

Growth pace
How fast the underlying business is moving, quarter by quarter. Hover any tile for the plain-English meaning.

Revenue

The total dollars the company billed customers. When this number grows quarter after quarter, the business is finding more demand.

quarterly

Latest

$19.7B

Q1 2026

The most recent reported figure, in the company's own currency and reporting cadence.

QoQ

-4.2%

vs Q4 2025

How much this quarter grew compared to last quarter. Useful for spotting acceleration or slowdown in real time.

YoY

+4.7%

vs Q1 2025

How much this quarter grew compared to the same quarter one year ago. Strips out seasonality — a slow holiday quarter looks worse QoQ but normal YoY.

CAGR

insufficient history

The smooth yearly growth rate that gets you from the starting value to the current value. A 100% CAGR over 3 years means the business tripled, on average, each year.

Net income

What's left from revenue after paying every cost — employees, materials, taxes, interest. Sometimes called profit or 'the bottom line.'

quarterly

Latest

$1.1B

Q1 2026

The most recent reported figure, in the company's own currency and reporting cadence.

QoQ

+1090.0%

vs Q4 2025

How much this quarter grew compared to last quarter. Useful for spotting acceleration or slowdown in real time.

YoY

-8.6%

vs Q1 2025

How much this quarter grew compared to the same quarter one year ago. Strips out seasonality — a slow holiday quarter looks worse QoQ but normal YoY.

CAGR

insufficient history

The smooth yearly growth rate that gets you from the starting value to the current value. A 100% CAGR over 3 years means the business tripled, on average, each year.

Free cash flow

The cash actually left in the bank after the company has paid for everything and reinvested in itself. Harder to fake than net income.

quarterly

Latest

-$1B

Q1 2026

The most recent reported figure, in the company's own currency and reporting cadence.

QoQ

-179.6%

vs Q4 2025

How much this quarter grew compared to last quarter. Useful for spotting acceleration or slowdown in real time.

YoY

-277.7%

vs Q1 2025

How much this quarter grew compared to the same quarter one year ago. Strips out seasonality — a slow holiday quarter looks worse QoQ but normal YoY.

CAGR

insufficient history

The smooth yearly growth rate that gets you from the starting value to the current value. A 100% CAGR over 3 years means the business tripled, on average, each year.

Quarterly revenue, net income & free cash flow
Bars show what the company actually reported each quarter. The growth chart below turns these into the QoQ / YoY pace the rest of this page uses.
Annual growth rate (YoY)
Year-over-year change in full-year totals. Strips out quarterly noise and seasonality so the multi-year trend is visible — not just the last 12 months.
Compound annual growth (CAGR)
The smooth yearly growth rate across each window. The "start → end" line shows the dollar value at the beginning and end of the window.
Metric3 yr2 yr1 yr
Revenue
+4.7%
$18.9B$19.7B
Net income
-8.6%
$1.2B$1.1B
Free cash flow
+190.7%
$566M$1.3B
Valuation — P/E

P/E TTM

22.8×

Trailing twelve months. Today's price divided by the last year of actual earnings.

P/E NTM

9.8×

Next twelve months. Today's price divided by what analysts expect the company to earn over the coming year.

Balance sheet & valuation
The five numbers that decide whether the growth above is safe, sustainable, and reasonably priced. Descriptions on every tile — hover or scroll to read.

Profitability

Weak

Operating margin (and the wider return profile) tells you how efficiently each dollar of sales becomes profit. High and rising = pricing power; low or falling = the business is grinding.

Share count

Shrinking

Are the buybacks outrunning the stock-based comp? A shrinking share count means every existing share owns a bigger slice of future earnings.

Debt load

Heavy

Total debt against cash and earnings power (EBITDA). Light debt leaves room to invest and weather downturns; heavy debt shrinks the margin for error.

Debt service

Weak

Whether the cash the business generates easily covers its interest and loan payments. Strong here = no forced selling in a bad year.

Cash return at today's price

-1.4%

Free cash flow divided by market cap — the cash yield you're getting for the price you pay. Above ~6% is rich, below ~3% is thin. P/E shown when the yield is too small to be useful.

What stands out
  • Current fundamentals are strained, characterized by weak profitability (3.0% profit margin, 5.9% ROE), and negative FCF (-$1B in Q1 2026).
  • The balance sheet is weak with heavy debt, and debt service coverage is also weak.
  • Revenue growth is positive YoY (+4.7%) but QoQ is negative (-4.2%), suggesting an inconsistent trend.
  • The company maintains a friendly shareholder trend due to shrinking share count and a decent dividend yield (4.50%).
  • Despite fundamental challenges, valuation metrics like Fwd P/E (9.8x) appear attractive, but this must be weighed against current performance issues.

Thesis

Why this read

Eni has slipped below its daily moving average with declining momentum and volume, indicating a short-term markdown. Despite the longer-term trend still being officially 'MARKUP' by prior assessment, current price action is weak. We maintain a WAIT given the conflicting indicators and to avoid catching a falling knife.

Short-term thesis

Aligned53% conviction-7 ptsv1
Navigating Energy Transition with Strained Fundamentals

Eni is in a transitional phase, aiming to leverage its position as a Mediterranean gas hub and expand into biofuels and renewables. However, this transition is coinciding with clear fundamental weaknesses, including poor profitability, negative free cash flow, and heavy debt. While the long-term strategic shift toward energy security and decarbonization presents potential, the immediate financial health is concerning. The stock's modest valuation might appeal to long-term value investors, but significant operational improvements are needed to justify a sustained upward trajectory.

Long-term exposure

Avoid

The business or valuation backdrop is not ready for long-term conviction.

Entry window

Wait

The stock is currently trading below its daily 21-day moving average, indicating short-term weakness, with contracting volume suggesting reduced buying interest. While it remains above its weekly 21-day average, the immediate trend is down. Given the mixed signals and recent price action, it's prudent to wait for clearer strength or for it to reclaim key resistance levels.

Risk check

Fragile

The downside can widen quickly if this setup goes wrong.

Alignment

Aligned

The weekly weakness matches a poor long-term backdrop.

What supports it

  • Price still looks reasonable against the business.
  • Share count has been shrinking instead of diluting holders.
  • Earnings estimates have improved 8.8% over the past month.
  • Stock remains above its weekly 21 EMA, providing a longer-term support level.

What limits it

  • This needs smaller size or more patience.
  • Balance sheet is carrying real pressure.
  • Debt service looks stretched for current cash generation.
  • Business trend still needs more proof.

Long-term thesis

The increasing global demand for energy security, particularly natural gas in Europe, combined with the accelerating transition to lower-carbon energy sources like biofuels and renewables defines Eni's long-term opportunity. As Europe diversifies its energy supply, Eni's role as an indispensable Mediterranean gas hub provides a strategic advantage.

68opportunity65% thesis conf
Crossing Chasm2y horizon

Bottleneck Role

Indispensable Mediterranean gas hub, expanding into biofuels and renewable energy production.

Consensus Blind Spot

The market might be underestimating Eni's ability to pivot its legacy infrastructure and expertise to successfully capitalize on both the ongoing need for traditional energy security and the accelerating demand for sustainable energy alternatives. While current financials are weak, the strategic positioning for a dual energy future could provide asymmetrical upside not reflected in trailing metrics.

Demand Gap

The gap between Europe's current energy import reliance and its push for diversified, lower-carbon sources creates persistent demand for both conventional gas and new energy solutions that Eni is developing.

Demand to Equity Scenarios

Bear70% conf

Global economic slowdown, rapid decline in fossil fuel demand, intensified competition in renewables.

Demand

-10%

Earnings

-15%

Equity implication

-20%

Weak utilization of legacy assets, delayed ramp-up of new energy projects, pricing pressure.

Base65% conf

Continued focus on European energy security, moderate growth in biofuels demand, steady renewable energy build-out.

Demand

+5%

Earnings

+5%

Equity implication

+10%

Stable gas revenues supported by long-term contracts, gradual growth from diversified energy segments.

Bull60% conf

Accelerated global energy transition, strong policy support for biofuels/renewables, geopolitical events boosting demand for diversified gas supplies.

Demand

+15%

Earnings

+15%

Equity implication

+25%

Optimal utilization of both legacy and new assets, significant pricing power in core and growth segments.

Dependency Chain

  1. 1Demand shock from energy security concerns and decarbonization efforts.
  2. 2Bottleneck in reliable, diversified energy supply (natural gas, biofuels).
  3. 3Increased utilization and pricing power for Eni's gas and newer energy products.
  4. 4Positive earnings revisions as these trends materialize.
  5. 5Equity repricing reflective of higher earnings and reduced risk.

Repricing Triggers

  • Confirmation of significant new gas contracts or increased supply volumes to Europe.
  • Faster-than-expected growth and profitability of biofuels and renewable energy segments.
  • Positive earnings surprises driven by improved operational efficiency and higher commodity prices.
  • Successful debt reduction initiatives and improved free cash flow generation.

Must be true

  • European demand for diversified energy sources remains strong.
  • Eni successfully executes its energy transition strategy, bringing new projects online and improving profitability.
  • Commodity prices remain at supportive levels for its oil and gas segment.
  • The company effectively manages its heavy debt load without significant financial distress.

Thesis broken if

  • Sustained declines in European gas demand or increased competition eroding Eni's market share.
  • Failure to deliver on renewable and biofuel project timelines or achieve target returns.
  • Further deterioration in free cash flow and inability to improve debt service metrics.
  • Significant negative earnings revisions and continued weak profitability.

History

What changed

Since the previous run · 1 month ago
Prior call was neutral

Signal

BUYSELLFlipped

Conviction

0.7%60%+59 pts

Long term

Maybe ownAvoidFlipped

Stock

$23.36$22.75-2.6%

Added since last run

7
  • Stock remains above its weekly 21 EMA, providing a longer-term support level.
  • Forward P/E indicates potential undervaluation if earnings recover.
  • Strong dividend yield continues to offer shareholder return.
  • Price is below the daily 21-day moving average, signaling short-term bearishness.
  • Volume is contracting, suggesting a lack of conviction from buyers.
  • Negative momentum over the past 5 and 20 days relative to SPY and its sector.
  • Recent negative free cash flow and deteriorating profitability signal fundamental weakness.

No longer flagged

0

Nothing dropped this run

Model's reflection on the prior call

The prior call to BUY at $23.36 was neutral as the price has moved slightly lower into a consolidation. The reasoning that the stock was ready to resume its upward path was not completely accurate as it failed to hold its momentum.

Analysis timeline
6 runs

Jun 12, 2026

Latest

Updated Jun 12, 2026, 9:58 AM UTC

WeeklyWAIT
Long termAVOID
Confidence60% · Medium

Price at review

$22.75

The stock is currently trading below its daily 21-day moving average, indicating short-term weakness, with contracting volume suggesting reduced buying interest. While it remains above its weekly 21-day average, the immediate trend is down. Given the mixed signals and recent price action, it's prudent to wait for clearer strength or for it to reclaim key resistance levels.

Jun 5, 2026

Updated Jun 5, 2026, 9:51 AM UTC

WeeklyBUY
Long termWATCH
Confidence70% · Medium

Price at review

$23.37

The stock has regained its footing and looks ready to resume its upward path as buyers reappear.

May 29, 2026

Updated May 29, 2026, 8:52 AM UTC

WeeklyWAIT
Long termWATCH
Confidence70% · Medium

Price at review

$22.43

The short-term trend has weakened significantly, and the stock is searching for a floor. It is best to wait for price to stabilize and show renewed interest before committing new capital.

May 13, 2026

Updated May 13, 2026, 5:35 PM UTC

WeeklyWAIT
Long termWATCH
Confidence75% · High

Price at review

$23.57

The stock is treading water near its recent average price while trading volume dries up. Expect quiet trading until it either clears overhead resistance or settles toward its longer-term trend line.

Jan 21, 1970

Updated Apr 27, 2026, 10:13 PM UTC

WeeklyBUY
Long termAVOID
Confidence55% · Medium

Price at review

$23.01

The stock remains in a confirmed weekly uptrend with price well above key support at 21.00, though momentum has stalled near prior resistance zone of 25.00-25.02. With earnings passed and no immediate catalyst, expect consolidation or shallow pullback toward 22.50-23.00 zone before potential next leg. Forward P/E of 9.9 embeds significant pessimism if energy prices hold.

Jan 21, 1970

Updated Apr 24, 2026, 6:03 PM UTC

WeeklyBUY
Confidence75% · High

Price at review

$22.95

ENI.MI is in a strong weekly uptrend, significantly above its 21-week EMA, indicating sustained bullish momentum. While facing recent revenue headwinds, the forward P/E suggests potential undervaluation. The current pullback offers a potential entry point for investors capitalizing on the longer-term uptrend.