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WeeklyWAIT
Long termAVOID
CRWV
CRWV
CoreWeave, Inc.

Latest update

$66.03

Updated: Jul 28, 2026, 2:01 PM UTC

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Metrics

CoreWeave, Inc. (CRWV): High Growth Meets Significant Financial Strain in AI Compute Market

CoreWeave is a cloud infrastructure technology company providing specialized AI compute platforms and services. The company has demonstrated impressive revenue growth, with a YoY increase of 111.6% to $2.1 billion in Q1 2026. Despite this strong top-line performance, CoreWeave faces considerable financial challenges, marked by substantial negative free cash flow of -$4.7 billion in Q1 2026 and a highly leveraged balance sheet with a Debt/Equity ratio of 738.5. Profitability metrics are deeply negative, including a -25.6% profit margin and -6.9% operating margin. The company's valuation is stretched, with a negative forward P/E of -41.6, reflecting the market's anticipation of future profitability rather than current earnings. Liquidity is also weak, with current and quick ratios at 0.3 and 0.2, respectively. Debt service appears challenging given current EBITDA and operating cash figures, which are inadequate relative to the debt load. Shareholder trend is stable, but there have been no positive returns for shareholders yet.

Growth pace
How fast the underlying business is moving, quarter by quarter. Hover any tile for the plain-English meaning.

Revenue

The total dollars the company billed customers. When this number grows quarter after quarter, the business is finding more demand.

quarterly

Latest

$2.1B

Q1 2026

The most recent reported figure, in the company's own currency and reporting cadence.

QoQ

+32.2%

vs Q4 2025

How much this quarter grew compared to last quarter. Useful for spotting acceleration or slowdown in real time.

YoY

+111.6%

vs Q1 2025

How much this quarter grew compared to the same quarter one year ago. Strips out seasonality — a slow holiday quarter looks worse QoQ but normal YoY.

CAGR

insufficient history

The smooth yearly growth rate that gets you from the starting value to the current value. A 100% CAGR over 3 years means the business tripled, on average, each year.

Net income

What's left from revenue after paying every cost — employees, materials, taxes, interest. Sometimes called profit or 'the bottom line.'

quarterly

Latest

-$740M

Q1 2026

The most recent reported figure, in the company's own currency and reporting cadence.

QoQ

vs Q4 2025

How much this quarter grew compared to last quarter. Useful for spotting acceleration or slowdown in real time.

YoY

vs Q1 2025

How much this quarter grew compared to the same quarter one year ago. Strips out seasonality — a slow holiday quarter looks worse QoQ but normal YoY.

CAGR

insufficient history

The smooth yearly growth rate that gets you from the starting value to the current value. A 100% CAGR over 3 years means the business tripled, on average, each year.

Free cash flow

The cash actually left in the bank after the company has paid for everything and reinvested in itself. Harder to fake than net income.

quarterly

Latest

-$4.7B

Q1 2026

The most recent reported figure, in the company's own currency and reporting cadence.

QoQ

vs Q4 2025

How much this quarter grew compared to last quarter. Useful for spotting acceleration or slowdown in real time.

YoY

vs Q1 2025

How much this quarter grew compared to the same quarter one year ago. Strips out seasonality — a slow holiday quarter looks worse QoQ but normal YoY.

CAGR

insufficient history

The smooth yearly growth rate that gets you from the starting value to the current value. A 100% CAGR over 3 years means the business tripled, on average, each year.

Quarterly revenue, net income & free cash flow
Bars show what the company actually reported each quarter. The growth chart below turns these into the QoQ / YoY pace the rest of this page uses.
Annual growth rate (YoY)
Year-over-year change in full-year totals. Strips out quarterly noise and seasonality so the multi-year trend is visible — not just the last 12 months.
Compound annual growth (CAGR)
The smooth yearly growth rate across each window. The "start → end" line shows the dollar value at the beginning and end of the window.
Metric3 yr2 yr1 yr
Revenue
+111.7%
$982M$2.1B
Net income
Free cash flow
Valuation — P/E

P/E TTM

Trailing twelve months. Today's price divided by the last year of actual earnings.

P/E NTM

-41.6×

Next twelve months. Today's price divided by what analysts expect the company to earn over the coming year.

Balance sheet & valuation
The five numbers that decide whether the growth above is safe, sustainable, and reasonably priced. Descriptions on every tile — hover or scroll to read.

Profitability

Weak

Operating margin (and the wider return profile) tells you how efficiently each dollar of sales becomes profit. High and rising = pricing power; low or falling = the business is grinding.

Share count

Stable

Are the buybacks outrunning the stock-based comp? A shrinking share count means every existing share owns a bigger slice of future earnings.

Debt load

Heavy

Total debt against cash and earnings power (EBITDA). Light debt leaves room to invest and weather downturns; heavy debt shrinks the margin for error.

Debt service

Weak

Whether the cash the business generates easily covers its interest and loan payments. Strong here = no forced selling in a bad year.

Cash return at today's price

-23.8%

Free cash flow divided by market cap — the cash yield you're getting for the price you pay. Above ~6% is rich, below ~3% is thin. P/E shown when the yield is too small to be useful.

What stands out
  • CoreWeave is experiencing rapid revenue growth (+111.6% YoY) driven by strong demand for AI compute infrastructure.
  • The company's financial health is strained by significant negative free cash flow (-$4.7B in Q1 2026) and high debt (D/E 738.5).
  • Profitability and cash return metrics are deeply negative, indicating a capital-intensive business model that is not yet generating profits or positive cash flow.
  • Valuation is stretched, relying heavily on future projections of profitability rather than current financial performance.
  • Liquidity and debt service capacity are weak, posing risks to the company's financial durability.

Thesis

Why this read

The stock is deeply entrenched in a markdown phase, with price action signaling continued weakness. The technical setup shows persistent negative momentum, significant underperformance, and a lack of buying support, confirmed by contracting volume. Current financial metrics, particularly high debt and negative free cash flow, exacerbate market concerns and contribute to the bearish sentiment. Given these factors, waiting for a clearer turnaround in both price and fundamental outlook is prudent.

Short-term thesis

Aligned13% conviction-27 ptsv1
CoreWeave: Critical AI Infrastructure with Significant Execution and Financing Hurdles

CoreWeave is strategically positioned as a core provider of specialized AI compute infrastructure, serving as an essential 'overflow valve' for organizations requiring high-end GPUs and power-provisioned data center space beyond what hyperscalers can readily supply. The company's impressive revenue growth validates the strong and increasing demand for its services within the burgeoning AI ecosystem. However, this growth is highly capital-intensive, leading to substantial negative free cash flow and a heavily leveraged balance sheet. The immediate challenge is the company's ability to finance its aggressive expansion while demonstrating a viable path to improved profitability and positive cash generation. While the long-term secular demand for AI compute infrastructure is undeniable, current financial pressures and negative market sentiment highlight investor apprehension regarding the company's operational execution and financial durability during this critical build-out phase.

Long-term exposure

Avoid

The business or valuation backdrop is not ready for long-term conviction.

Entry window

Wait

CoreWeave remains in a strong markdown phase, trading significantly below its daily and weekly key moving averages. Momentum is deeply negative, and there is no indication of buying interest, as volume continues to contract. While long-term demand for AI infrastructure is robust, the immediate price action indicates that the market is heavily discounting the company's financial risks. Investors should continue to avoid initiating new positions and consider defensive actions.

Risk check

Fragile

The downside can widen quickly if this setup goes wrong.

Alignment

Aligned

The weekly weakness matches a poor long-term backdrop.

What supports it

  • Hyper-growth in revenue (+111.6% YoY) confirms strong demand for specialized AI compute.
  • Strategic positioning as a critical provider for non-hyperscaler AI workloads, addressing specific market needs.
  • Scalable infrastructure, if effectively financed and managed, benefits from increasing AI adoption.

What limits it

  • This needs smaller size or more patience.
  • Balance sheet is carrying real pressure.
  • Debt service looks stretched for current cash generation.
  • Price already asks a lot from the business.

Long-term thesis

The increasing scarcity of specialized, power-provisioned Tier-1 data center space and high-end GPUs, driven by explosive growth in generative AI, multi-modal models, and sovereign AI initiatives. CoreWeave is positioned to capture this demand as an essential overflow valve outside of hyperscalers.

72opportunity65% thesis conf
Early Adopter5y horizon

Bottleneck Role

CoreWeave acts as a critical 'overflow valve' for AI compute, addressing the scarcity of power-provisioned Tier-1 data center space and access to high-end GPUs, which are essential for advanced AI models among non-hyperscaler clients. Its role is particularly acute for specialized workloads and those requiring flexible, dedicated GPU access beyond what hyperscalers readily provide.

Consensus Blind Spot

The market may be underestimating CoreWeave's long-term capture potential due to an overemphasis on current negative profitability and high debt. The sheer scale and speed of AI demand growth might create a pricing environment that rapidly improves CoreWeave's unit economics and free cash flow generation once critical mass is achieved. The difficulty of hyperscalers to quickly adapt and build out specialized infrastructure at the required pace creates an enduring niche for CoreWeave that traditional valuation metrics might not fully appreciate.

Demand Gap

The demand gap exists between the explosive growth in AI model development and deployment, and the limited supply of specialized, high-performance computing infrastructure (especially high-end GPUs and suitable data centers) capable of supporting these intense workloads efficiently. This gap is particularly pronounced for non-hyperscaler businesses needing flexible, dedicated, and cost-effective access.

Demand to Equity Scenarios

Bear70% conf

Slower-than-expected AI adoption or increased competition from hyperscalers consolidating market share.

Demand

-20%

Earnings

-50%

Equity implication

-40%

Reduced demand for specialized AI infrastructure, leading to lower utilization rates and pricing pressure.

Base60% conf

Continued strong growth in AI adoption, particularly from companies requiring specialized compute, with CoreWeave maintaining its niche.

Demand

+30%

Earnings

+30%

Equity implication

+25%

Steady utilization and growing revenue, but continued need for capital expenditure and slow progress towards profitability.

Bull45% conf

Explosive growth in generative AI, sovereign AI initiatives, and multi-modal models driving acute scarcity in compute, with CoreWeave capturing outsized market share.

Demand

+100%

Earnings

+100%

Equity implication

+75%

High utilization, strong pricing power, and increasing operating leverage accelerate path to profitability and positive free cash flow.

Dependency Chain

  1. 1Exploding demand for advanced AI models (Generative AI, LLMs, Multi-modal).
  2. 2Acute scarcity of high-performance GPUs and suitable power-provisioned data center infrastructure.
  3. 3Resulting bottleneck drives companies to seek specialized providers like CoreWeave.
  4. 4CoreWeave captures market share through its dedicated AI cloud offerings.
  5. 5Increased utilization and pricing power lead to revenue acceleration and potential margin expansion.
  6. 6Positive earnings revisions and cash flow generation follow successful scaling.
  7. 7Equity repricing reflects CoreWeave's essential role and improved financial health.

Repricing Triggers

  • Announcement of significant long-term financing that de-risks the balance sheet and funds growth.
  • Quarterly earnings reports demonstrating accelerating margin expansion, improved free cash flow trends, or a clear path to profitability.
  • Major customer wins or expansion into new strategic geographies/workloads.
  • Signs of hyperscalers struggling to meet demand, further validating CoreWeave's niche.
  • Clear guidance towards FCF positive operations within a reasonable timeframe.

Must be true

  • AI demand growth will continue at an aggressive pace, driving persistent scarcity for specialized compute resources.
  • CoreWeave can effectively manage its capital-intensive build-out and secure necessary financing without excessive dilution or unsustainable debt.
  • The company can improve operational efficiency and move towards profitability and positive free cash flow over the next 2-3 years.
  • Hyperscalers will not fully saturate the specialized AI compute market, leaving a significant and profitable niche for CoreWeave.

Thesis broken if

  • Stagnation or decline in revenue growth rates, indicating weakening demand capture or increased competition.
  • Further deterioration of the balance sheet, including persistent negative free cash flow without a clear improvement trajectory, increasing debt, or declining liquidity.
  • Significant customer churn or inability to attract new high-value clients.
  • Failure to secure critical financing at reasonable terms, leading to constrained growth or increasing financial distress.
  • Hyperscalers aggressively expanding into CoreWeave's niche with competitive pricing and specialized offerings.

History

What changed

Since the previous run · 2 months ago
Prior call was neutral

Signal

SELLSELL

Conviction

40%40%0 pts

Long term

AvoidAvoid

Stock

$72.91$66.03-9.4%

Added since last run

5
  • Price trading significantly below daily and weekly key moving averages (19.2% and 30.9% respectively).
  • Strong negative momentum over 5-day (-17.03%) and 20-day (-30.87%) periods.
  • Significant underperformance against SPY and sector (XLK).
  • Contracting volume (-30.8%) indicates lack of buying interest.
  • Near-term earnings event risk (15 days away) with negative revision trend.

No longer flagged

0

Nothing dropped this run

Model's reflection on the prior call

The prior call to WAIT in a SELL cycle was correct, as the stock has continued its significant decline, trading well below key moving averages with negative momentum. The reasoning that the price action signaled further downside risk was accurate.

Analysis timeline
6 runs

Jul 28, 2026

Latest

Updated Jul 28, 2026, 2:01 PM UTC

WeeklyWAIT
Long termAVOID
Confidence40% · Low

Price at review

$66.03

CoreWeave remains in a strong markdown phase, trading significantly below its daily and weekly key moving averages. Momentum is deeply negative, and there is no indication of buying interest, as volume continues to contract. While long-term demand for AI infrastructure is robust, the immediate price action indicates that the market is heavily discounting the company's financial risks. Investors should continue to avoid initiating new positions and consider defensive actions.

Jul 16, 2026

Updated Jul 16, 2026, 8:45 PM UTC

WeeklyWAIT
Long termAVOID
Confidence40% · Low

Price at review

$72.91

CoreWeave continues to face strong selling pressure, breaking down from previous support levels. The price is now significantly below both its daily and weekly key moving averages, indicating a clear markdown phase. Momentum is deeply negative, and contracting volume suggests a lack of buying interest. While the long-term AI narrative remains strong, the current price action signals further downside risk or prolonged consolidation before any meaningful reversal.

Jun 12, 2026

Updated Jun 12, 2026, 9:58 AM UTC

WeeklyWAIT
Long termAVOID
Confidence40% · Low

Price at review

$95.74

The stock has fallen below its weekly and daily 21 EMA, indicating a clear bearish trend. Volume is contracting, suggesting buyers are currently on the sidelines. The current price action suggests a potential test of lower support levels is likely before any significant accumulation can occur.

Jun 5, 2026

Updated Jun 5, 2026, 9:38 AM UTC

WeeklyWAIT
Long termWATCH
Confidence75% · High

Price at review

$108

Expect continued sideways to slightly lower movement as the stock tests the resolve of long-term holders.

May 29, 2026

Updated May 29, 2026, 8:43 AM UTC

WeeklyWAIT
Long termWATCH
Confidence75% · High

Price at review

$107

The stock is stuck between two major levels and lacks a clear direction. Expect choppy movement until it can stay above the recent high or falls below support.

May 13, 2026

Updated May 13, 2026, 5:38 PM UTC

WeeklyWAIT
Long termWATCH
Confidence70% · Medium

Price at review

$112

The stock is struggling to move higher even on positive days. Wait for a clear sign that buyers are stepping back in with force.