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WeeklyWAIT
Long termAVOID
CRWV
CRWV
CoreWeave, Inc.

Latest update

$72.91

Updated: Jul 16, 2026, 8:45 PM UTC

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Metrics

CoreWeave: High Growth, High Burn in the AI Cloud Race

CoreWeave, Inc. is an AI-focused cloud infrastructure company based in Livingston, New Jersey, providing specialized compute, data, and networking solutions primarily for AI development at scale. The company reported robust revenue growth of 111.6% year-over-year, reaching $2.1 billion in Q1 2026. Despite rapid top-line expansion, CoreWeave is currently unprofitable with a net loss of $740 million and significant negative free cash flow of -$4.7 billion in the same quarter, reflecting its capital-intensive build-out phase. The company carries a substantial debt-to-equity ratio of 738.5, and its debt service capacity is noted as weak, with a current ratio of 0.3 and quick ratio of 0.2. Profitability metrics like profit margin (-25.6%) and operating margin (-6.9%) are negative, though gross margin is a healthy 69.4%. The stock is trading at $72.91, significantly below its 52-week high of $153.20.

Growth pace
How fast the underlying business is moving, quarter by quarter. Hover any tile for the plain-English meaning.

Revenue

The total dollars the company billed customers. When this number grows quarter after quarter, the business is finding more demand.

quarterly

Latest

$2.1B

Q1 2026

The most recent reported figure, in the company's own currency and reporting cadence.

QoQ

+32.2%

vs Q4 2025

How much this quarter grew compared to last quarter. Useful for spotting acceleration or slowdown in real time.

YoY

+111.6%

vs Q1 2025

How much this quarter grew compared to the same quarter one year ago. Strips out seasonality — a slow holiday quarter looks worse QoQ but normal YoY.

CAGR

insufficient history

The smooth yearly growth rate that gets you from the starting value to the current value. A 100% CAGR over 3 years means the business tripled, on average, each year.

Net income

What's left from revenue after paying every cost — employees, materials, taxes, interest. Sometimes called profit or 'the bottom line.'

quarterly

Latest

-$740M

Q1 2026

The most recent reported figure, in the company's own currency and reporting cadence.

QoQ

vs Q4 2025

How much this quarter grew compared to last quarter. Useful for spotting acceleration or slowdown in real time.

YoY

vs Q1 2025

How much this quarter grew compared to the same quarter one year ago. Strips out seasonality — a slow holiday quarter looks worse QoQ but normal YoY.

CAGR

insufficient history

The smooth yearly growth rate that gets you from the starting value to the current value. A 100% CAGR over 3 years means the business tripled, on average, each year.

Free cash flow

The cash actually left in the bank after the company has paid for everything and reinvested in itself. Harder to fake than net income.

quarterly

Latest

-$4.7B

Q1 2026

The most recent reported figure, in the company's own currency and reporting cadence.

QoQ

vs Q4 2025

How much this quarter grew compared to last quarter. Useful for spotting acceleration or slowdown in real time.

YoY

vs Q1 2025

How much this quarter grew compared to the same quarter one year ago. Strips out seasonality — a slow holiday quarter looks worse QoQ but normal YoY.

CAGR

insufficient history

The smooth yearly growth rate that gets you from the starting value to the current value. A 100% CAGR over 3 years means the business tripled, on average, each year.

Quarterly revenue, net income & free cash flow
Bars show what the company actually reported each quarter. The growth chart below turns these into the QoQ / YoY pace the rest of this page uses.
Annual growth rate (YoY)
Year-over-year change in full-year totals. Strips out quarterly noise and seasonality so the multi-year trend is visible — not just the last 12 months.
Compound annual growth (CAGR)
The smooth yearly growth rate across each window. The "start → end" line shows the dollar value at the beginning and end of the window.
Metric3 yr2 yr1 yr
Revenue
+111.7%
$982M$2.1B
Net income
Free cash flow
Valuation — P/E

P/E TTM

Trailing twelve months. Today's price divided by the last year of actual earnings.

P/E NTM

-49.8×

Next twelve months. Today's price divided by what analysts expect the company to earn over the coming year.

Balance sheet & valuation
The five numbers that decide whether the growth above is safe, sustainable, and reasonably priced. Descriptions on every tile — hover or scroll to read.

Profitability

Weak

Operating margin (and the wider return profile) tells you how efficiently each dollar of sales becomes profit. High and rising = pricing power; low or falling = the business is grinding.

Share count

Stable

Are the buybacks outrunning the stock-based comp? A shrinking share count means every existing share owns a bigger slice of future earnings.

Debt load

Heavy

Total debt against cash and earnings power (EBITDA). Light debt leaves room to invest and weather downturns; heavy debt shrinks the margin for error.

Debt service

Weak

Whether the cash the business generates easily covers its interest and loan payments. Strong here = no forced selling in a bad year.

Cash return at today's price

-21.5%

Free cash flow divided by market cap — the cash yield you're getting for the price you pay. Above ~6% is rich, below ~3% is thin. P/E shown when the yield is too small to be useful.

What stands out
  • CoreWeave is experiencing rapid revenue growth (+111.6% YoY) driven by AI demand.
  • The business is currently deeply unprofitable with negative net income and free cash flow due to high capital expenditures.
  • The balance sheet is stressed with high debt and weak debt service metrics.
  • Valuation is challenging to assess given current unprofitability, with a forward P/E of -49.8.
  • The stock price reflects these concerns, trading significantly off its highs and below key moving averages.

Thesis

Why this read

The technical setup for CRWV is unambiguously bearish. The stock has fallen sharply, breaking through prior support and establishing a clear markdown. Crucially, the price is heavily discounted to both its daily and weekly 21 EMAs, indicating entrenched selling pressure. Furthermore, the lack of positive relative strength against SPY or XLK, combined with declining volume, confirms that there is no immediate buying interest. While the long-term thesis might hold, the near-term risk remains elevated, warranting a 'WAIT' for an entry until there's clear evidence of a reversal or stabilization.

Short-term thesis

Aligned13% conviction-27 ptsv1
CoreWeave: AI Compute's Growth Engine vs. Capital Crunch Reality

CoreWeave is at the forefront of providing critical AI compute infrastructure, acting as a vital 'overflow valve' for clients needing high-end GPUs and power-provisioned data center space outside of hyperscalers. The company's rapid revenue growth confirms the strong secular demand for its services. However, this growth comes at a steep price, evidenced by substantial negative free cash flow and a heavily leveraged balance sheet. The immediate challenge is navigating this capital-intensive expansion without succumbing to financial strain. While the long-term demand picture for AI compute is robust, the current financial metrics and weak market performance reflect investor apprehension about the path to sustained profitability and cash generation.

Long-term exposure

Avoid

The business or valuation backdrop is not ready for long-term conviction.

Entry window

Wait

CoreWeave continues to face strong selling pressure, breaking down from previous support levels. The price is now significantly below both its daily and weekly key moving averages, indicating a clear markdown phase. Momentum is deeply negative, and contracting volume suggests a lack of buying interest. While the long-term AI narrative remains strong, the current price action signals further downside risk or prolonged consolidation before any meaningful reversal.

Risk check

Fragile

The downside can widen quickly if this setup goes wrong.

Alignment

Aligned

The weekly weakness matches a poor long-term backdrop.

What supports it

  • Explosive revenue growth (+111.6% YoY) validates strong demand for AI compute infrastructure.
  • Healthy gross margin (69.4%) indicates the core service is profitable at scale.
  • Critical role as a specialized AI compute provider filling a market bottleneck outside hyperscalers.

What limits it

  • This needs smaller size or more patience.
  • Balance sheet is carrying real pressure.
  • Debt service looks stretched for current cash generation.
  • Price already asks a lot from the business.

Long-term thesis

The pervasive and accelerating demand for specialized AI compute resources, particularly high-end GPUs and purpose-built infrastructure, will continue to outstrip supply, creating a sustained bottleneck that CoreWeave is well-positioned to alleviate.

72opportunity60% thesis conf
Early Adopter5y horizon

Bottleneck Role

CoreWeave acts as a critical 'overflow valve' for AI compute, addressing the scarcity of power-provisioned Tier-1 data center space and access to high-end GPUs, which are essential for advanced AI models among non-hyperscaler clients. Its role is particularly acute for specialized workloads and those requiring flexible, dedicated GPU access beyond what hyperscalers readily provide.

Consensus Blind Spot

The market may be overly fixated on CoreWeave's current unprofitability and high capital expenditures, underestimating the magnitude and duration of the AI compute demand wave and the potential for a significant inflection in profitability once a critical mass of infrastructure is operational. They might also underestimate the stickiness of specialized AI customers and the difficulty for hyperscalers to replicate CoreWeave's agile, GPU-focused offerings.

Demand Gap

The demand for specialized AI compute, particularly for next-generation models and enterprise AI adoption, continues to scale exponentially, far outstripping the rate at which hyperscalers and traditional cloud providers can bring appropriate, cost-effective capacity online. This creates a supply-demand imbalance that CoreWeave is designed to exploit.

Demand to Equity Scenarios

Bear60% conf

Slower-than-expected AI adoption or increased competition from hyperscalers.

Demand

-15%

Earnings

-50%

Equity implication

-40%

Reduced utilization rates and pricing pressure, delaying path to profitability and worsening cash burn.

Base70% conf

Continued strong growth in AI adoption, particularly from companies requiring specialized compute.

Demand

+20%

Earnings

+30%

Equity implication

+25%

Consistent facility build-out and scaling, improving utilization, and gradual progress towards cash flow breakeven.

Bull55% conf

Explosive growth in generative AI, sovereign AI initiatives, and multi-modal models driving acute scarcity in compute.

Demand

+40%

Earnings

+100%

Equity implication

+75%

Accelerated infrastructure deployment, demand outstripping supply, leading to significant pricing power and rapid scaling of EBITDA and FCF.

Dependency Chain

  1. 1Demand Shock: Explosive growth in generative AI, large language models, and sovereign AI initiatives.
  2. 2Bottleneck/Scarcity: Limited availability of power-provisioned Tier-1 data center space and access to cutting-edge GPUs.
  3. 3Utilization/Pricing: High demand leads to strong utilization rates and potentially premium pricing for specialized compute.
  4. 4Earnings Revisions: As infrastructure comes online and scales, revenue growth coupled with improving operating leverage leads to positive earnings revisions.
  5. 5Equity Repricing: Demonstrable path to profitability and free cash flow generation drives equity repricing.

Repricing Triggers

  • Demonstrable improvements in free cash flow and operating profitability.
  • Successful debt refinancing or new equity raises that de-risk the balance sheet.
  • Announcement of significant new customer wins or expansions with existing key AI players.
  • Positive earnings revisions from analysts forecasting a quicker path to profitability.
  • Confirmation of new, large-scale data center capacity coming online and being rapidly utilized.

Must be true

  • Demand for specialized AI compute will continue to exceed supply for the foreseeable future.
  • CoreWeave's operational execution will be sufficient to bring new capacity online efficiently.
  • The company will be able to manage its significant debt load and secure necessary financing for continued expansion.
  • CoreWeave can maintain its competitive edge against hyperscalers and other specialized providers.

Thesis broken if

  • Sustained declines in utilization rates for existing capacity.
  • Inability to secure new financing or rising cost of capital.
  • Increased competition leading to pricing pressure and margin erosion.
  • Significant delays or cost overruns in data center construction.
  • Unexpected slowdown in AI adoption or enterprise AI spending.
  • Persistent negative FCF without a clear path to profitability.

History

What changed

Since the previous run · 1 month ago
Prior call was neutral

Signal

SELLSELL

Conviction

40%40%0 pts

Long term

AvoidAvoid

Stock

$95.74$72.91-23.8%

Added since last run

5
  • Price trading significantly below daily and weekly key moving averages.
  • Strong negative momentum over 5-day and 20-day periods.
  • Underperforming the broader market and sector.
  • Contracting volume indicates lack of buying interest.
  • High debt load and negative free cash flow raise concerns about financial stability during a downturn.

No longer flagged

0

Nothing dropped this run

Model's reflection on the prior call

The prior call rightly identified the bearish trend and strong selling pressure, and that buyers were on the sidelines. The prediction of a potential test of lower support levels was accurate, as the price has fallen significantly.

Analysis timeline
6 runs

Jul 16, 2026

Latest

Updated Jul 16, 2026, 8:45 PM UTC

WeeklyWAIT
Long termAVOID
Confidence40% · Low

Price at review

$72.91

CoreWeave continues to face strong selling pressure, breaking down from previous support levels. The price is now significantly below both its daily and weekly key moving averages, indicating a clear markdown phase. Momentum is deeply negative, and contracting volume suggests a lack of buying interest. While the long-term AI narrative remains strong, the current price action signals further downside risk or prolonged consolidation before any meaningful reversal.

Jun 12, 2026

Updated Jun 12, 2026, 9:58 AM UTC

WeeklyWAIT
Long termAVOID
Confidence40% · Low

Price at review

$95.74

The stock has fallen below its weekly and daily 21 EMA, indicating a clear bearish trend. Volume is contracting, suggesting buyers are currently on the sidelines. The current price action suggests a potential test of lower support levels is likely before any significant accumulation can occur.

Jun 5, 2026

Updated Jun 5, 2026, 9:38 AM UTC

WeeklyWAIT
Long termWATCH
Confidence75% · High

Price at review

$108

Expect continued sideways to slightly lower movement as the stock tests the resolve of long-term holders.

May 29, 2026

Updated May 29, 2026, 8:43 AM UTC

WeeklyWAIT
Long termWATCH
Confidence75% · High

Price at review

$107

The stock is stuck between two major levels and lacks a clear direction. Expect choppy movement until it can stay above the recent high or falls below support.

May 13, 2026

Updated May 13, 2026, 5:38 PM UTC

WeeklyWAIT
Long termWATCH
Confidence70% · Medium

Price at review

$112

The stock is struggling to move higher even on positive days. Wait for a clear sign that buyers are stepping back in with force.

May 1, 2026

Updated May 1, 2026, 9:39 AM UTC

WeeklySELL
Long termWATCH
Confidence60% · Medium

Price at review

$112

The short-term setup looks weak. Price is rolling over from a sharp rally, selling pressure is building on heavier down-days, and the stock has not found a floor where buyers step in with conviction.