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WeeklySELL
Long termAVOID
ATS.
ATS.VI
AT&S Austria Tech.&Systemtech.

Latest update

$213

Updated: Jun 17, 2026, 2:18 PM UTC

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Metrics

AT & S Austria Technologie & Systemtechnik Aktiengesellschaft (ATS.VI)

ATS.VI is a manufacturer of advanced printed circuit boards and integrated circuit substrates, critical components for various high-tech industries including semiconductors, communications, consumer electronics, and automotive. The company operates globally across three segments: Electronics Solutions, Microelectronics, and Others. Despite exhibiting strong revenue growth year-over-year, profitability remains weak, and the balance sheet carries significant debt. The stock has seen a substantial price surge, far outstripping underlying business performance and valuations.

Growth pace
How fast the underlying business is moving, quarter by quarter. Hover any tile for the plain-English meaning.

Revenue

The total dollars the company billed customers. When this number grows quarter after quarter, the business is finding more demand.

quarterly

Latest

$467.7M

Q4 2025

The most recent reported figure, in the company's own currency and reporting cadence.

QoQ

+17.2%

vs Q2 2025

How much this quarter grew compared to last quarter. Useful for spotting acceleration or slowdown in real time.

YoY

+3.8%

vs Q3 2024

How much this quarter grew compared to the same quarter one year ago. Strips out seasonality — a slow holiday quarter looks worse QoQ but normal YoY.

CAGR

insufficient history

The smooth yearly growth rate that gets you from the starting value to the current value. A 100% CAGR over 3 years means the business tripled, on average, each year.

Net income

What's left from revenue after paying every cost — employees, materials, taxes, interest. Sometimes called profit or 'the bottom line.'

quarterly

Latest

$24.2M

Q4 2025

The most recent reported figure, in the company's own currency and reporting cadence.

QoQ

vs Q2 2025

How much this quarter grew compared to last quarter. Useful for spotting acceleration or slowdown in real time.

YoY

vs Q3 2024

How much this quarter grew compared to the same quarter one year ago. Strips out seasonality — a slow holiday quarter looks worse QoQ but normal YoY.

CAGR

insufficient history

The smooth yearly growth rate that gets you from the starting value to the current value. A 100% CAGR over 3 years means the business tripled, on average, each year.

Free cash flow

The cash actually left in the bank after the company has paid for everything and reinvested in itself. Harder to fake than net income.

quarterly

Latest

$91.7M

Q4 2025

The most recent reported figure, in the company's own currency and reporting cadence.

QoQ

-29.5%

vs Q2 2025

How much this quarter grew compared to last quarter. Useful for spotting acceleration or slowdown in real time.

YoY

vs Q3 2024

How much this quarter grew compared to the same quarter one year ago. Strips out seasonality — a slow holiday quarter looks worse QoQ but normal YoY.

CAGR

insufficient history

The smooth yearly growth rate that gets you from the starting value to the current value. A 100% CAGR over 3 years means the business tripled, on average, each year.

Quarterly revenue, net income & free cash flow
Bars show what the company actually reported each quarter. The growth chart below turns these into the QoQ / YoY pace the rest of this page uses.
Annual growth rate (YoY)
Year-over-year change in full-year totals. Strips out quarterly noise and seasonality so the multi-year trend is visible — not just the last 12 months.
Compound annual growth (CAGR)
The smooth yearly growth rate across each window. The "start → end" line shows the dollar value at the beginning and end of the window.
Metric3 yr2 yr1 yr
Revenue
+17.9%
$396.8M$467.7M
Net income
-93.3%
$185M$24.2M
Free cash flow
Valuation — P/E

P/E TTM

64.6×

Trailing twelve months. Today's price divided by the last year of actual earnings.

P/E NTM

31.8×

Next twelve months. Today's price divided by what analysts expect the company to earn over the coming year.

Balance sheet & valuation
The five numbers that decide whether the growth above is safe, sustainable, and reasonably priced. Descriptions on every tile — hover or scroll to read.

Profitability

Weak

Operating margin (and the wider return profile) tells you how efficiently each dollar of sales becomes profit. High and rising = pricing power; low or falling = the business is grinding.

Share count

Stable

Are the buybacks outrunning the stock-based comp? A shrinking share count means every existing share owns a bigger slice of future earnings.

Debt load

Heavy

Total debt against cash and earnings power (EBITDA). Light debt leaves room to invest and weather downturns; heavy debt shrinks the margin for error.

Debt service

Mixed

Whether the cash the business generates easily covers its interest and loan payments. Strong here = no forced selling in a bad year.

Cash return at today's price

4.4%

Free cash flow divided by market cap — the cash yield you're getting for the price you pay. Above ~6% is rich, below ~3% is thin. P/E shown when the yield is too small to be useful.

What stands out
  • ATS.VI's revenue growth has been strong (+17.9% YoY), driven by demand in various high-tech sectors.
  • The company's profitability is weak, with low gross, operating, and net margins, and a material decline in net income (-93.3% YoY).
  • The balance sheet is characterized by heavy debt (D/E 227.9) and mixed debt service capabilities (EBITDA covers, but operating cash is lower).
  • Valuation metrics are stretched, with a TTM P/E of 64.6x and an NTM P/E of 31.8x, suggesting the stock price has outrun current fundamentals.
  • Free cash flow recently declined by 29.5% QoQ, despite overall positive annual FCF.

Thesis

Why this read

ATS.VI has entered an unsustainable parabolic rally, massively extended beyond its underlying trend and fundamental valuations. Despite expanding volume, indicating a frenzy, the sheer overextension and weak underlying profitability coupled with heavy debt suggest this move is due for a significant correction. The risk of holding or entering here is extremely high as the price has entirely disconnected from current and projected earnings power.

Short-term thesis

Aligned45% conviction-15 ptsv1
ATS.VI: AI Substrate Bottleneck Thesis Outruns Fundamental Reality, Posing Extreme Price Risk

ATS.VI benefits from its critical role as a supplier of advanced substrates for AI accelerators, creating a secular demand tailwind. However, the current stock price has dramatically outpaced the company's mixed fundamental performance, weak profitability, and heavy debt load. While the long-term demand for its products remains strong, the extreme valuation and technical overextension make the stock highly vulnerable to a sharp correction. This is a tactical SELL due to unsustainable price action, despite the underlying demand for its products.

Long-term exposure

Avoid

The business or valuation backdrop is not ready for long-term conviction.

Entry window

Trim / avoid

The stock is in a vertical ascent, highly extended from its underlying trend. While volume has increased, indicating intense buying, this parabolic move often precedes sharp corrections. The valuation is stretched, and the fundamental picture does not support this extreme price action, posing a significant risk for new or existing positions.

Risk check

Fragile

The downside can widen quickly if this setup goes wrong.

Alignment

Aligned

The weekly weakness matches a poor long-term backdrop.

What supports it

  • The stock is leading the broad market by 80.5 points over the past month.
  • The stock is also leading its sector by 73.8 points.
  • Significant price momentum and strong weekly gains.
  • ATS.VI is a crucial supplier of advanced substrates for high-growth areas like AI accelerators.

What limits it

  • This needs smaller size or more patience.
  • Balance sheet is carrying real pressure.
  • Price already asks a lot from the business.
  • Margins or returns are too soft for a clean long hold.

Long-term thesis

ATS.VI is a critical bottleneck in the demand for advanced packaging substrates (e.g., ABF) required for high-performance computing, specifically AI accelerators. As AI chip complexity and size increase, the need for high-layer count substrates will create scarcity and ensure pricing power for specialized manufacturers.

85opportunity70% thesis conf
Crossing Chasm5y horizon

Bottleneck Role

ATS.VI plays a load-bearing role as a key supplier of advanced substrates, particularly high-layer count ABF, which are essential for 2.5D/3D packaging of next-generation AI accelerators. This technology is a critical constraint for larger, more powerful AI chips from companies like NVIDIA and Intel, making ATS.VI a gatekeeper to increased AI computing capacity.

Consensus Blind Spot

The consensus acknowledges the AI boom but may underestimate the specific and acute bottleneck in advanced substrate packaging capacity. Many focus on chip designers or foundries, overlooking the specialized materials and manufacturing processes that enable these advanced chips. The sheer scale of future AI demand could stress this niche much faster and more profoundly than anticipated.

Demand Gap

There is a significant and growing demand gap for specialized, high-performance substrates required for AI chip packaging. Current manufacturing capacity, particularly for very high-layer count ABF, is insufficient to meet projected exponential growth in AI accelerator demand over the next 3-5 years, leading to a structural supply deficit.

Demand to Equity Scenarios

Bear40% conf

Slower AI adoption, increased competition, or technological shift away from current packaging methods.

Demand

-20%

Earnings

-30%

Equity implication

-50%

Reduced utilization rates, pricing pressure, increased CapEx write-downs.

Base75% conf

Continued strong growth in AI demand, maintaining current market leadership and technology relevance.

Demand

+15%

Earnings

+10%

Equity implication

+15%

Consistent high utilization, stable ASPs, incremental capacity expansion.

Bull60% conf

Exponential acceleration in AI training/inference, severe substrate shortage, leading to significant pricing power and market share gains.

Demand

+30%

Earnings

+25%

Equity implication

+40%

Maxed-out utilization, material ASP increases, significant positive earnings revisions due to scarcity.

Dependency Chain

  1. 1Generative AI adoption and model growth ->
  2. 2Increased demand for AI accelerators (GPUs, ASICs) ->
  3. 3Need for larger, more complex 2.5D/3D chip packaging ->
  4. 4Bottleneck in high-layer count ABF and advanced substrate capacity ->
  5. 5High utilization and pricing power for substrate manufacturers like ATS.VI ->
  6. 6Revenue growth, margin expansion, and earnings revisions ->
  7. 7Equity repricing based on future demand capture.

Repricing Triggers

  • Quarterly earnings reports demonstrating continued high utilization and improved pricing for advanced substrates.
  • Announcements of new design wins with major AI chip designers.
  • Updates on capacity expansion plans and their successful execution.
  • Industry reports highlighting deepening bottlenecks in advanced packaging.
  • Analyst upgrades and positive revisions of future earnings estimates.

Must be true

  • The exponential growth trajectory of AI development and deployment will continue.
  • Advanced packaging (2.5D/3D) remains the preferred method for high-performance AI chips.
  • ATS.VI maintains its technological leadership and market share in critical substrate technologies.
  • Capital expenditures for capacity expansion are managed effectively and yield expected returns.

Thesis broken if

  • Significant slowdown in overall AI chip demand or a shift to less complex packaging.
  • New entrants or alternative technologies rapidly scale to alleviate substrate bottlenecks.
  • ATS.VI loses key design wins or experiences execution issues with its capacity ramp.
  • Pricing power erodes due to overcapacity in advanced substrates.
  • Sustained declines in gross margins or operating margins.

History

What changed

Since the previous run · 1 month ago
Prior call was wrong

Signal

SELLSELL

Conviction

0.88%60%+59 pts

Long term

Maybe ownAvoidFlipped

Stock

$145.80$212.50+45.7%

Added since last run

7
  • Significant price momentum and strong weekly gains.
  • Expanding volume suggests strong current demand for the stock.
  • Robust revenue growth indicates underlying business activity.
  • Extreme price extension from both daily (40.8%) and weekly (138.1%) trend lines, indicating unsustainability.
  • Highly stretched valuation (P/E 64.6x) with a declining net income trend.
  • Weak profitability and heavy debt load create significant fundamental risk.
  • The stock is in a blow-off top type of extreme markup phase, which carries high reversal risk.

No longer flagged

0

Nothing dropped this run

Model's reflection on the prior call

The prior call to SELL was ultimately incorrect as the stock continued its upward parabolic move. The reasoning about high volatility and struggle to find new buyers was accurate in spirit, but the intensity of the upside surprise completely overwhelmed the expectation of a peak.

Analysis timeline
6 runs

Jun 17, 2026

Latest

Updated Jun 17, 2026, 2:18 PM UTC

WeeklySELL
Long termAVOID
Confidence60% · Medium

Price at review

$213

The stock is in a vertical ascent, highly extended from its underlying trend. While volume has increased, indicating intense buying, this parabolic move often precedes sharp corrections. The valuation is stretched, and the fundamental picture does not support this extreme price action, posing a significant risk for new or existing positions.

Jun 9, 2026

Updated Jun 9, 2026, 1:16 PM UTC

WeeklySELL
Long termWATCH
Confidence88% · High

Price at review

$146

Expect high volatility as the price struggles to find new buyers at these levels.

Jun 2, 2026

Updated Jun 2, 2026, 9:00 AM UTC

WeeklySELL
Long termWATCH
Confidence85% · High

Price at review

$143

The rally is showing signs of extreme fatigue as buying volume fades while the price hits new highs.

May 13, 2026

Updated May 13, 2026, 5:39 PM UTC

WeeklySELL
Long termWATCH
Confidence70% · Medium

Price at review

$102

The short-term setup is extremely overextended and lacks fresh buying power. Expect a significant cooling-off period as the current rally exhausts itself.

May 2, 2026

Updated May 2, 2026, 11:55 AM UTC

WeeklySELL
Long termWATCH
Confidence52% · Low

Price at review

$93.80

The short-term setup remains risky despite the bounce. Price is still 18.6% above the daily average with no proper consolidation, and volume expansion on the rebound could indicate distribution rather than renewed accumulation. The path of least resistance still favors a deeper pullback before a healthier advance can resume.

Jan 21, 1970

Updated Apr 27, 2026, 5:34 PM UTC

WeeklySELL
Confidence58% · Medium

Price at review

$91.90

Parabolic advance showing first meaningful crack with -5.74% single-day decline after rejecting near $98 resistance. Stock remains 22% above daily 21 EMA with no proper consolidation, raising probability of sharper mean reversion before May 21 earnings.