Latest update
$1,598
Updated: Jul 16, 2026, 8:51 PM UTC
Browsing public data
ASML continues to demonstrate strong business performance with solid revenue and net income growth. Profitability margins are robust, indicating effective operations. However, the latest quarter showed negative free cash flow, which warrants attention. The company maintains a light debt load with strong debt service capacity. Valuation remains elevated on a trailing basis but becomes more attractive on a forward-looking P/E. Share count is stable, and the overall shareholder return via dividends is modest.
Revenue
The total dollars the company billed customers. When this number grows quarter after quarter, the business is finding more demand.
Latest
↑$9.3B
Q2 2026
The most recent reported figure, in the company's own currency and reporting cadence.
QoQ
↑+6.4%
vs Q1 2026
How much this quarter grew compared to last quarter. Useful for spotting acceleration or slowdown in real time.
YoY
↑+21.3%
vs Q2 2025
How much this quarter grew compared to the same quarter one year ago. Strips out seasonality — a slow holiday quarter looks worse QoQ but normal YoY.
CAGR
•—
insufficient history
The smooth yearly growth rate that gets you from the starting value to the current value. A 100% CAGR over 3 years means the business tripled, on average, each year.
Net income
What's left from revenue after paying every cost — employees, materials, taxes, interest. Sometimes called profit or 'the bottom line.'
Latest
↑$2.9B
Q2 2026
The most recent reported figure, in the company's own currency and reporting cadence.
QoQ
↑+5.8%
vs Q1 2026
How much this quarter grew compared to last quarter. Useful for spotting acceleration or slowdown in real time.
YoY
↑+27.4%
vs Q2 2025
How much this quarter grew compared to the same quarter one year ago. Strips out seasonality — a slow holiday quarter looks worse QoQ but normal YoY.
CAGR
•—
insufficient history
The smooth yearly growth rate that gets you from the starting value to the current value. A 100% CAGR over 3 years means the business tripled, on average, each year.
Free cash flow
The cash actually left in the bank after the company has paid for everything and reinvested in itself. Harder to fake than net income.
Latest
↓-$2.6B
Q1 2026
The most recent reported figure, in the company's own currency and reporting cadence.
QoQ
↓-123.8%
vs Q4 2025
How much this quarter grew compared to last quarter. Useful for spotting acceleration or slowdown in real time.
YoY
•—
vs Q1 2025
How much this quarter grew compared to the same quarter one year ago. Strips out seasonality — a slow holiday quarter looks worse QoQ but normal YoY.
CAGR
•—
insufficient history
The smooth yearly growth rate that gets you from the starting value to the current value. A 100% CAGR over 3 years means the business tripled, on average, each year.
| Metric | 3 yr | 2 yr | 1 yr |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | — | — | +21.3% $7.7B→$9.3B |
| Net income | — | — | +27.4% $2.3B→$2.9B |
| Free cash flow | — | — | — |
P/E TTM
↑58.0×
Trailing twelve months. Today's price divided by the last year of actual earnings.
P/E NTM
↑32.3×
Next twelve months. Today's price divided by what analysts expect the company to earn over the coming year.
Profitability
↑Strong
Operating margin (and the wider return profile) tells you how efficiently each dollar of sales becomes profit. High and rising = pricing power; low or falling = the business is grinding.
Share count
→Stable
Are the buybacks outrunning the stock-based comp? A shrinking share count means every existing share owns a bigger slice of future earnings.
Debt load
↑Light
Total debt against cash and earnings power (EBITDA). Light debt leaves room to invest and weather downturns; heavy debt shrinks the margin for error.
Debt service
↑Strong
Whether the cash the business generates easily covers its interest and loan payments. Strong here = no forced selling in a bad year.
Cash return at today's price
↓1.4%
Free cash flow divided by market cap — the cash yield you're getting for the price you pay. Above ~6% is rich, below ~3% is thin. P/E shown when the yield is too small to be useful.
While the overall trend remains positive and the stock has regained its short-term moving average, the proximity of the earnings report creates an immediate overhang. It's wise to let this catalyst pass and observe the market's reaction before making a new entry. The long-term thesis remains highly attractive, but tactical patience is key here.
Short-term thesis
The risk sleeve is too fragile to support aggressive exposure.
Long-term exposure
Avoid
The business or valuation backdrop is not ready for long-term conviction.
Entry window
Wait
The stock has recovered from its recent drop and is now trading above its daily 21-day average, signaling resumed upward momentum. However, an earnings report is due in 9 days, which presents event risk. Given the recent volatility and upcoming catalyst, it's prudent to wait on the sidelines for now to see how earnings are received and allow for potential new support levels to establish post-event.
Risk check
Fragile
The downside can widen quickly if this setup goes wrong.
Alignment
Mixed
Neither horizon fully wins, so size and patience matter.
What supports it
What limits it
Long-term thesis
The increasing silicon intensity of the digital economy, driven by AI, IoT, and high-performance computing, fundamentally requires more advanced and powerful chips. ASML is the sole enabler of the critical manufacturing processes for these future-generation semiconductors.
Bottleneck Role
ASML holds a near-monopoly on the most advanced lithography equipment (EUV and High-NA EUV), essential for producing leading-edge semiconductors at 2nm and beyond. This makes them a critical, unavoidable bottleneck in the semiconductor manufacturing supply chain, as no viable alternative exists for this crucial step.
Consensus Blind Spot
The market often struggles to accurately value monopolistic infrastructure providers in rapidly growing, critical industries. Traditional valuation metrics may not fully capture ASML's long-term pricing power and the structural inelasticity of demand for its uniquely essential products, leading to underestimation of its sustained earnings power and total addressable market.
Demand Gap
The current trajectory of computational demand (especially from AI) far outstrips the semiconductor industry's capacity to produce chips at the required density and power efficiency without ASML's advanced lithography. This creates an ever-widening gap, which only ASML tools can bridge, ensuring a multi-year backlog and demand for their systems.
Demand to Equity Scenarios
Global economic slowdown reducing broader chip demand; geopolitical shifts severely curtailing trade, or major setback in AI scaling.
Demand
—
Earnings
-25%
Equity implication
-35%
Reduced capital expenditure by chip manufacturers, deferred equipment orders.
Continued strong demand for AI chips; steady adoption of next-gen nodes driven by competitive chip design and ongoing digital transformation.
Demand
—
Earnings
+30%
Equity implication
+45%
Sustained high utilization of current EUV tools and robust orders for new and High-NA EUV systems.
Explosive, sustained growth in AI; faster-than-expected transition to 2nm and 1nm nodes; geopolitical incentives for domestic chip production accelerating fab build-outs globally.
Demand
—
Earnings
+60%
Equity implication
+80%
Significant acceleration in new orders and average selling prices for advanced lithography systems, pushing capacity limits.
Dependency Chain
Repricing Triggers
Must be true
Thesis broken if
What changed
Signal
Conviction
Long term
Stock
Added since last run
8No longer flagged
0Nothing dropped this run
The prior assessment correctly identified the extended nature of the stock and wisely recommended waiting for stabilization and a retest of support. While the stock initially saw minimal movement, the subsequent rally confirms the underlying strength and the temporary nature of the pullback, making the 'WAIT' call appropriate for managing immediate entry risk.
Jul 16, 2026
LatestUpdated Jul 16, 2026, 8:51 PM UTC
Price at review
$1,598
The stock has recovered from its recent drop and is now trading above its daily 21-day average, signaling resumed upward momentum. However, an earnings report is due in 9 days, which presents event risk. Given the recent volatility and upcoming catalyst, it's prudent to wait on the sidelines for now to see how earnings are received and allow for potential new support levels to establish post-event.
Jul 7, 2026
Updated Jul 7, 2026, 2:17 PM UTC
Price at review
$1,517
The stock has experienced a significant downturn, now trading below its daily 21-day average, but remains well above its weekly average. Volume contracted with the recent drop, which hints at less conviction in the selling than the price action would suggest. Given the extended nature and recent price volatility, waiting for more stability or a retest of support levels makes sense before committing new capital, even with a strong underlying trend.
Jun 18, 2026
Updated Jun 18, 2026, 9:42 AM UTC
Price at review
$1,670
ASML has seen a significant price surge, pushing it considerably above its short-term and medium-term moving averages. While the underlying trend is strong and upward, the stock is currently quite extended. This suggests a potential for a brief pause or a shallow pullback before the next leg higher. For those looking to increase their position, waiting for a better entry point with less immediate risk of a minor correction makes sense.
Jun 11, 2026
Updated Jun 11, 2026, 12:58 AM UTC
Price at review
$1,507
The stock is consolidating near its recent highs, indicating that the long-term upward trend is strong, but a short-term pause or a slight dip is possible. Wait for a clearer entry point for new capital.
Jun 3, 2026
Updated Jun 3, 2026, 10:22 PM UTC
Price at review
$1,485
The stock hit my target resistance faster than expected; expect a period of sideways churning or a small dip.
May 27, 2026
Updated May 27, 2026, 6:54 AM UTC
Price at review
$1,390
The recent surge has left the price too far above its average support levels. It is better to wait for a temporary cooling period or a sideways move before starting new positions.