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WeeklyWAIT
Long termOWN
ARM
ARM
Arm Holdings plc

Latest update

$262

Updated: Jul 16, 2026, 8:52 PM UTC

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Metrics

Arm Holdings plc: Q1 2026 Performance and Financial Health

Arm Holdings plc, a leading designer of CPU intellectual property, reported strong performance in Q1 2026 with revenue growing 20.0% quarter-over-quarter and 20.1% year-over-year to $1.5 billion. Net income saw even more robust growth, up 40.4% QoQ and 49.0% YoY to $313 million. Despite this growth, Free Cash Flow experienced a slight decline both QoQ (-6.1%) and YoY (-5.6%) to $170 million. The company maintains excellent profitability with a gross margin of 97.5%, operating margin of 29.5%, and profit margin of 18.4%. Financially, Arm exhibits a strong balance sheet with light debt, robust debt service capabilities (EBITDA of $1.06B, Op cash of $1.52B, current ratio of 6.0), and a stable share count. Valuation remains high with a TTM P/E of 304.7x and NTM P/E of 85.1x, reflecting anticipated future growth.

Growth pace
How fast the underlying business is moving, quarter by quarter. Hover any tile for the plain-English meaning.

Revenue

The total dollars the company billed customers. When this number grows quarter after quarter, the business is finding more demand.

quarterly

Latest

$1.5B

Q1 2026

The most recent reported figure, in the company's own currency and reporting cadence.

QoQ

+20.0%

vs Q4 2025

How much this quarter grew compared to last quarter. Useful for spotting acceleration or slowdown in real time.

YoY

+20.1%

vs Q1 2025

How much this quarter grew compared to the same quarter one year ago. Strips out seasonality — a slow holiday quarter looks worse QoQ but normal YoY.

CAGR

insufficient history

The smooth yearly growth rate that gets you from the starting value to the current value. A 100% CAGR over 3 years means the business tripled, on average, each year.

Net income

What's left from revenue after paying every cost — employees, materials, taxes, interest. Sometimes called profit or 'the bottom line.'

quarterly

Latest

$313M

Q1 2026

The most recent reported figure, in the company's own currency and reporting cadence.

QoQ

+40.4%

vs Q4 2025

How much this quarter grew compared to last quarter. Useful for spotting acceleration or slowdown in real time.

YoY

+49.0%

vs Q1 2025

How much this quarter grew compared to the same quarter one year ago. Strips out seasonality — a slow holiday quarter looks worse QoQ but normal YoY.

CAGR

insufficient history

The smooth yearly growth rate that gets you from the starting value to the current value. A 100% CAGR over 3 years means the business tripled, on average, each year.

Free cash flow

The cash actually left in the bank after the company has paid for everything and reinvested in itself. Harder to fake than net income.

quarterly

Latest

$170M

Q1 2026

The most recent reported figure, in the company's own currency and reporting cadence.

QoQ

-6.1%

vs Q4 2025

How much this quarter grew compared to last quarter. Useful for spotting acceleration or slowdown in real time.

YoY

-5.6%

vs Q1 2025

How much this quarter grew compared to the same quarter one year ago. Strips out seasonality — a slow holiday quarter looks worse QoQ but normal YoY.

CAGR

insufficient history

The smooth yearly growth rate that gets you from the starting value to the current value. A 100% CAGR over 3 years means the business tripled, on average, each year.

Quarterly revenue, net income & free cash flow
Bars show what the company actually reported each quarter. The growth chart below turns these into the QoQ / YoY pace the rest of this page uses.
Annual growth rate (YoY)
Year-over-year change in full-year totals. Strips out quarterly noise and seasonality so the multi-year trend is visible — not just the last 12 months.
Compound annual growth (CAGR)
The smooth yearly growth rate across each window. The "start → end" line shows the dollar value at the beginning and end of the window.
Metric3 yr2 yr1 yr
Revenue
+20.1%
$1.2B$1.5B
Net income
+49.1%
$210M$313M
Free cash flow
-5.6%
$180M$170M
Valuation — P/E

P/E TTM

304.7×

Trailing twelve months. Today's price divided by the last year of actual earnings.

P/E NTM

85.1×

Next twelve months. Today's price divided by what analysts expect the company to earn over the coming year.

Balance sheet & valuation
The five numbers that decide whether the growth above is safe, sustainable, and reasonably priced. Descriptions on every tile — hover or scroll to read.

Profitability

Strong

Operating margin (and the wider return profile) tells you how efficiently each dollar of sales becomes profit. High and rising = pricing power; low or falling = the business is grinding.

Share count

Stable

Are the buybacks outrunning the stock-based comp? A shrinking share count means every existing share owns a bigger slice of future earnings.

Debt load

Light

Total debt against cash and earnings power (EBITDA). Light debt leaves room to invest and weather downturns; heavy debt shrinks the margin for error.

Debt service

Strong

Whether the cash the business generates easily covers its interest and loan payments. Strong here = no forced selling in a bad year.

Cash return at today's price

0.3%

Free cash flow divided by market cap — the cash yield you're getting for the price you pay. Above ~6% is rich, below ~3% is thin. P/E shown when the yield is too small to be useful.

What stands out
  • Arm's revenue and net income are growing strongly, indicating expanding business activity.
  • The company maintains exceptional profitability and a very sound financial footing with light debt and strong cash flow generation for debt service.
  • Free Cash Flow experienced a slight decrease despite revenue and net income growth.
  • The valuation metrics are very high, suggesting significant future growth is already priced into the stock.
  • Shareholder returns are minimal, with no dividend and a low cash return at current prices.

Thesis

Why this read

Despite being significantly oversold and entering an area where buyers might emerge, the impending earnings report in 13 days introduces substantial event risk. The recent downward momentum is strong, and while the long-term thesis remains intact, engaging before clarity from the earnings report is speculative. It is advisable to wait for the earnings release and subsequent price action to confirm a stable bottom or a clear entry point.

Short-term thesis

Aligned66% conviction+6 ptsv1
Arm's Enduring IP Dominance in AI and Efficient Compute

Arm's critical role as the architect of power-efficient computing IP, particularly with its v9 architecture, positions it at the forefront of AI and next-generation device development. The unique royalty model, coupled with expanding adoption and higher-value IP, underpins significant earnings growth potential. Despite a premium valuation and recent market volatility, the ongoing demand for efficient processing power in AI and adjacent markets continues to validate Arm's long-term investment narrative.

Long-term exposure

Own

The business backdrop is strong enough for long-term exposure.

Entry window

Wait

The stock has experienced a significant downturn and is now trading well below its short-term price average, entering a potential oversold zone. While this creates an attractive setup for patient buyers, the near-term volatility and a critical earnings report scheduled for next week suggest caution. It's prudent to observe how price action develops around these levels and to wait for the earnings event to pass before making a move.

Risk check

Fragile

The downside can widen quickly if this setup goes wrong.

Alignment

Aligned

Arm's business model and unique position fully align with massive secular trends in AI, IoT, and edge computing, ensuring strong future demand for its IP.

What supports it

  • Sales and cash still support a long hold.
  • Price still looks reasonable against the business.
  • Balance sheet gives the thesis room to breathe.
  • Debt service still looks controlled against cash generation.

What limits it

  • This needs smaller size or more patience.
  • The stock is lagging the broad market by 33.9 points over the past month.
  • The stock is trailing its sector by 29.1 points.
  • Significant recent selling pressure and high short-term momentum to the downside.

Long-term thesis

The pervasive integration of Arm's power-efficient CPU IP (especially v9) into the global AI infrastructure, from edge devices to data centers, as the foundational compute architecture for energy-efficient high-performance processing.

88opportunity75% thesis conf
Crossing Chasm5y horizon

Bottleneck Role

Arm acts as a critical bottleneck due to the highly specialized and power-efficient nature of its IP (especially v9), which is difficult and time-consuming for competitors to replicate. Its extensive ecosystem and software compatibility further entrench its position, creating a scarcity of viable alternatives for high-performance, low-power chip designs for AI and other advanced applications.

Consensus Blind Spot

The market may be underestimating the stickiness and increasing value capture of Arm's IP as chip complexity and performance demands for AI escalate. The shift to higher-value v9 architecture and the expansion into server/cloud markets may not be fully reflected in current long-term growth models, which still might overemphasize traditional mobile exposure. The increasing mix shift towards higher royalty rate chips, rather than just unit volume, is a significant earnings lever.

Demand Gap

The demand for increasingly sophisticated edge and cloud AI capabilities far exceeds the current supply of truly power-efficient, high-performance computing solutions where Arm-based chips have a distinct advantage. This gap is widening as AI models become more complex.

Demand to Equity Scenarios

Bear70% conf

Slower-than-expected AI adoption or increased competitive pressure from RISC-V in high-value segments.

Demand

-10%

Earnings

-15%

Equity implication

-25%

Reduced licensing of new architectures and lower royalty rates per chip, especially in advanced designs.

Base80% conf

Continued strong traction of v9 architecture, stable growth in AI/IoT. Accelerating per-chip royalty rates.

Demand

+15%

Earnings

+20%

Equity implication

+30%

Increased revenue per chip and sustained licensing growth across diverse end markets.

Bull65% conf

Accelerated AI adoption and pervasive integration of Arm IP into new computing paradigms, leading to widespread v9 adoption and higher-than-expected royalty rates.

Demand

+30%

Earnings

+40%

Equity implication

+60%

Rapid expansion of high-value IP licensing, significant upsides from CSS and software, disproportionate increase in average royalty per chip.

Dependency Chain

  1. 1Increasing demand for AI-driven applications and services.
  2. 2Need for more powerful, yet energy-efficient, processing across all compute environments.
  3. 3Arm's v9 architecture provides the most compelling IP solution for this balance.
  4. 4Higher adoption of v9 leads to increased royalty rates and IP licensing.
  5. 5This translates into accelerating revenue and margin expansion for Arm.
  6. 6Ultimately driving earnings revisions and equity repricing.

Repricing Triggers

  • Strong earnings reports demonstrating accelerating v9 adoption and growing royalty revenue.
  • Announcements of major design wins or expanded partnerships with leading AI hardware developers or cloud service providers.
  • Upward revisions to analyst earnings estimates and price targets.
  • Increased investor understanding of the higher-value capture from Arm's evolving royalty model and system designs.

Must be true

  • Arm will maintain its technological leadership in power-efficient computing IP against RISC-V and proprietary architectures.
  • The demand for AI processing at the edge and in the cloud will continue its rapid growth trajectory.
  • Arm's ability to extract higher royalty rates from its v9 architecture and future IP will persist.
  • Global semiconductor supply chains remain stable enough to support continued growth.

Thesis broken if

  • Significant market share gains by RISC-V in high-end computing or AI accelerators.
  • Deceleration in royalty per chip growth despite increasing unit volumes.
  • Disappointing v9 architecture adoption rates among major licensees.
  • Negative revisions to long-term earnings forecasts for Arm.
  • New, disruptive CPU architectures emerging with superior power efficiency and performance.

History

What changed

Since the previous run · 1 month ago
Prior call was neutral

Signal

BUYBUY

Conviction

70%60%-10 pts

Long term

OwnOwn

Stock

$342.23$262.01-23.4%

Added since last run

7
  • Stock is significantly oversold in the short term, presenting a potential bounce opportunity.
  • Long-term trend remains positive, with the price still above the weekly key average.
  • Strong fundamental growth and market positioning. Earnings revisions are positive over 90 days.
  • Significant recent selling pressure and high short-term momentum to the downside.
  • Earnings report looming in less than two weeks, increasing event risk and uncertainty.
  • High valuation requires flawless execution and continued robust growth, making it sensitive to any negative news.
  • Price trading far below the daily 21 EMA, indicating strong recent downtrend and difficulty for immediate recovery.

No longer flagged

0

Nothing dropped this run

Model's reflection on the prior call

The prior call successfully identified a need for consolidation or pullback closer to support levels following a sharp decline. Given the continued decline this week, the reasoning for 'WAIT' was correct in avoiding further drawdowns, although it indicated minimal movement rather than significant downside.

Analysis timeline
6 runs

Jul 16, 2026

Latest

Updated Jul 16, 2026, 8:52 PM UTC

WeeklyWAIT
Long termOWN
Confidence60% · Medium

Price at review

$262

The stock has experienced a significant downturn and is now trading well below its short-term price average, entering a potential oversold zone. While this creates an attractive setup for patient buyers, the near-term volatility and a critical earnings report scheduled for next week suggest caution. It's prudent to observe how price action develops around these levels and to wait for the earnings event to pass before making a move.

Jun 12, 2026

Updated Jun 12, 2026, 9:58 AM UTC

WeeklyWAIT
Long termOWN
Confidence70% · Medium

Price at review

$342

Following a recent and sharp decline, the stock is now extended significantly above its short-term and long-term moving averages. While the underlying business strength and structural demand remain intact, the price needs to consolidate further or pull back closer to support levels for a more favorable entry point. Expect continued choppiness this week.

Jun 5, 2026

Updated Jun 5, 2026, 9:37 AM UTC

WeeklyWAIT
Long termWATCH
Confidence80% · High

Price at review

$393

Expect price to take a breather as the recent vertical climb settles into a more sustainable range.

May 29, 2026

Updated May 29, 2026, 8:47 AM UTC

WeeklyWAIT
Long termWATCH
Confidence80% · High

Price at review

$335

The stock is in an exceptionally strong upward move but is currently too far ahead of its typical price floor. Expecting a period of sideways trading or a sharp dip before the next safe entry point.

May 13, 2026

Updated May 13, 2026, 4:57 PM UTC

WeeklyWAIT
Long termWATCH
Confidence50% · Low

Price at review

$218

The short-term trend is struggling to find a sustainable floor. Expect choppy behavior as the market tries to balance high demand with an expensive entry price.

Jan 21, 1970

Updated Apr 28, 2026, 4:41 PM UTC

WeeklySELL
Long termWATCH
Confidence44% · Low

Price at review

$198

Distribution characteristics persist with second consecutive distribution day; price has compressed 16.5% from $237.68 rejection but remains 13.3% above daily 21 EMA with no consolidation or pullback entry formed. Earnings in 9 days creates asymmetric event risk with no margin of safety at 92.6x forward earnings.