Back
NASDAQ
WeeklyWAIT
Long termAVOID
AMZN
AMZN
Amazon.com, Inc.

Latest update

$242

Updated: Jun 12, 2026, 9:58 AM UTC

Browsing public data

Metrics

Amazon's Foundational Strengths Amidst Market Digestion

Amazon.com, Inc. operates a diverse business spanning e-commerce, cloud computing (AWS), and advertising, serving a vast global customer base. The company demonstrates strong underlying business fundamentals with robust revenue and net income growth. However, free cash flow has recently turned negative, and its valuation, while supported by future earnings, is considered stretched at current levels. Debt is manageable, but debt service metrics indicate some weakness. Margins are strong and improving, indicating pricing power and efficiency.

Growth pace
How fast the underlying business is moving, quarter by quarter. Hover any tile for the plain-English meaning.

Revenue

The total dollars the company billed customers. When this number grows quarter after quarter, the business is finding more demand.

quarterly

Latest

$181.5B

Q1 2026

The most recent reported figure, in the company's own currency and reporting cadence.

QoQ

-14.9%

vs Q4 2025

How much this quarter grew compared to last quarter. Useful for spotting acceleration or slowdown in real time.

YoY

+16.6%

vs Q1 2025

How much this quarter grew compared to the same quarter one year ago. Strips out seasonality — a slow holiday quarter looks worse QoQ but normal YoY.

CAGR

insufficient history

The smooth yearly growth rate that gets you from the starting value to the current value. A 100% CAGR over 3 years means the business tripled, on average, each year.

Net income

What's left from revenue after paying every cost — employees, materials, taxes, interest. Sometimes called profit or 'the bottom line.'

quarterly

Latest

$30.3B

Q1 2026

The most recent reported figure, in the company's own currency and reporting cadence.

QoQ

+42.8%

vs Q4 2025

How much this quarter grew compared to last quarter. Useful for spotting acceleration or slowdown in real time.

YoY

+76.7%

vs Q1 2025

How much this quarter grew compared to the same quarter one year ago. Strips out seasonality — a slow holiday quarter looks worse QoQ but normal YoY.

CAGR

insufficient history

The smooth yearly growth rate that gets you from the starting value to the current value. A 100% CAGR over 3 years means the business tripled, on average, each year.

Free cash flow

The cash actually left in the bank after the company has paid for everything and reinvested in itself. Harder to fake than net income.

quarterly

Latest

-$18.2B

Q1 2026

The most recent reported figure, in the company's own currency and reporting cadence.

QoQ

-221.7%

vs Q4 2025

How much this quarter grew compared to last quarter. Useful for spotting acceleration or slowdown in real time.

YoY

vs Q1 2025

How much this quarter grew compared to the same quarter one year ago. Strips out seasonality — a slow holiday quarter looks worse QoQ but normal YoY.

CAGR

insufficient history

The smooth yearly growth rate that gets you from the starting value to the current value. A 100% CAGR over 3 years means the business tripled, on average, each year.

Quarterly revenue, net income & free cash flow
Bars show what the company actually reported each quarter. The growth chart below turns these into the QoQ / YoY pace the rest of this page uses.
Annual growth rate (YoY)
Year-over-year change in full-year totals. Strips out quarterly noise and seasonality so the multi-year trend is visible — not just the last 12 months.
Compound annual growth (CAGR)
The smooth yearly growth rate across each window. The "start → end" line shows the dollar value at the beginning and end of the window.
Metric3 yr2 yr1 yr
Revenue
+16.6%
$155.7B$181.5B
Net income
+76.7%
$17.1B$30.3B
Free cash flow
Valuation — P/E

P/E TTM

31.7×

Trailing twelve months. Today's price divided by the last year of actual earnings.

P/E NTM

24.5×

Next twelve months. Today's price divided by what analysts expect the company to earn over the coming year.

Balance sheet & valuation
The five numbers that decide whether the growth above is safe, sustainable, and reasonably priced. Descriptions on every tile — hover or scroll to read.

Profitability

Strong

Operating margin (and the wider return profile) tells you how efficiently each dollar of sales becomes profit. High and rising = pricing power; low or falling = the business is grinding.

Share count

Stable

Are the buybacks outrunning the stock-based comp? A shrinking share count means every existing share owns a bigger slice of future earnings.

Debt load

Manageable

Total debt against cash and earnings power (EBITDA). Light debt leaves room to invest and weather downturns; heavy debt shrinks the margin for error.

Debt service

Weak

Whether the cash the business generates easily covers its interest and loan payments. Strong here = no forced selling in a bad year.

Cash return at today's price

0.4%

Free cash flow divided by market cap — the cash yield you're getting for the price you pay. Above ~6% is rich, below ~3% is thin. P/E shown when the yield is too small to be useful.

What stands out
  • Amazon exhibits strong revenue growth (16.6% YoY) and net income growth (76.7% YoY), showcasing a healthy operating engine and profitability.
  • The business generates strong operating margins (13.1%) and profitability ratios (ROE 24.3%), driven by efficient operations.
  • Free cash flow has recently turned negative (-$18.2B Q1 2026), contrasting with positive sales and net income trends and highlighting a potential area of concern or reinvestment.
  • Current valuation (P/E 31.7x TTM, 24.5x NTM) is considered stretched despite strong forward earnings estimates, suggesting market optimism is priced in.
  • Debt load is manageable, but debt service is noted as weak, implying that while the overall debt level isn't alarming, the ability to cover payments from cash flow has room for improvement.

Thesis

Why this read

The market is absorbing the recent pullback after a failed breakout. While the long-term cycle remains in accumulation due to strong secular trends, short-term price action, including being below the daily 21 EMA and negative momentum, calls for patience. Waiting for the price to stabilize and show clear signs of support is prudent, aligning with the previous call's accurate assessment of sideways/downward drift.

Short-term thesis

Mixed64% conviction-6 ptsv1
Cloud Dominance and AI Bottleneck Position Amazon for Sustained Growth

Amazon's role as a critical infrastructure provider through AWS, particularly as a 'refinery' for generative AI, positions it uniquely to capture new demand waves. Despite short-term market digestion and stretched valuation, the secular shift towards cloud computing and AI services provides a strong underlying tailwind. While recent negative free cash flow is a watch item, Amazon's overall profitability and strong revenue growth suggest a resilient business capable of managing its debt and investing for future expansion. The current setup is a tactical waiting period before a potential re-entry.

Long-term exposure

Avoid

The business or valuation backdrop is not ready for long-term conviction.

Entry window

Wait

Amazon is currently pulling back, consolidating after a recent failed breakout attempt. While underlying fundamentals remain strong, the market is digesting recent price action. Investors should wait for clearer signs of stability and support to form before considering new positions.

Risk check

Fragile

The downside can widen quickly if this setup goes wrong.

Alignment

Mixed

Neither horizon fully wins, so size and patience matter.

What supports it

  • Sales and cash still support a long hold.
  • Margins and returns still support the long hold.
  • The setup is leaning on a pullback entry near support.
  • Analyst revisions have been net positive over the past month.

What limits it

  • This needs smaller size or more patience.
  • Debt service looks stretched for current cash generation.
  • Price already asks a lot from the business.
  • The stock is lagging the broad market by 10.0 points over the past month.

Long-term thesis

The pervasive and accelerating demand for cloud infrastructure and generative AI compute will drive sustained growth and market leadership for key bottleneck providers like AWS.

82opportunity80% thesis conf
Crossing Chasm5y horizon

Bottleneck Role

AWS acts as a crucial 'refinery' bottleneck for generative AI, providing the essential compute, storage, and specialized services needed to develop, train, and deploy AI models, effectively controlling access to fundamental resources for this burgeoning field.

Consensus Blind Spot

The market may be underestimating the stickiness and increasing pricing power of advanced cloud services, especially those tailored for complex AI workloads. The sheer scale and ongoing innovation required to compete at this level create higher barriers to entry than fully appreciated, concentrating future economic rents within existing hyperscalers.

Demand Gap

Demand for scalable, secure, and performant cloud computing resources, especially for AI, is far outstripping the current pace of infrastructure deployment and specialized service development by smaller providers, creating a persistent gap that only hyperscalers can fill.

Demand to Equity Scenarios

Bear70% conf

Slower-than-expected AI adoption or increased competition from sovereign clouds.

Demand

-10%

Earnings

-15%

Equity implication

-20%

Reduced AWS revenue growth, impacting overall profitability.

Base85% conf

Continued strong adoption of cloud and AI, with AWS retaining market share.

Demand

+20%

Earnings

+18%

Equity implication

+22%

Solid AWS revenue growth, contributing significantly to Amazon's bottom line.

Bull60% conf

Accelerated AI development and broader enterprise adoption, leading to higher-than-expected AWS utilization and pricing power.

Demand

+30%

Earnings

+25%

Equity implication

+35%

Explosive AWS growth, driving margin expansion and significant earnings outperformance.

Dependency Chain

  1. 1Explosion in AI model training and deployment requires massive compute.
  2. 2Hyperscale cloud providers supply the requisite compute, storage, and networking.
  3. 3AWS, as a market leader, captures a significant share of this demand.
  4. 4Increased utilization and pricing power flow to AWS's top and bottom lines.
  5. 5AWS's earnings growth drives Amazon's overall equity repricing.

Repricing Triggers

  • Consistent acceleration in AWS revenue growth, particularly from AI-related services.
  • Positive free cash flow turnaround and sustained growth.
  • Upward revisions to Amazon's long-term earnings forecasts by analysts.
  • Strategic announcements or partnerships solidifying AWS's AI leadership.

Must be true

  • Cloud adoption will continue its long-term growth trajectory.
  • AWS will maintain its leadership position and market share in the cloud infrastructure space.
  • Generative AI development and deployment will continue at a rapid pace, driving demand for underlying compute resources.
  • Amazon will effectively manage its capital allocation to address negative FCF and invest in growth.

Thesis broken if

  • Deceleration in AWS revenue below overall cloud market growth rates.
  • Sustained negative free cash flow for multiple quarters without clear reinvestment justification.
  • Significant erosion of AWS market share due to intensified competition.
  • Regulatory intervention negatively impacting cloud or AI business models.

History

What changed

Since the previous run · 1 month ago
Prior call was neutral

Signal

BUYBUY

Conviction

0.7%70%+69 pts

Long term

Maybe ownAvoidFlipped

Stock

$253.79$241.51-4.8%

Added since last run

8
  • AWS continues to be a critical bottleneck for generative AI, driving future growth.
  • Strong historical revenue and net income growth suggests robust underlying business performance.
  • Positive forward P/E indicates expected strong earnings growth.
  • Positive revision trend (1.5% in 90 days) suggests analyst optimism for future earnings.
  • Recent negative free cash flow raises questions about cash generation or high reinvestment needs.
  • Current price is below the Daily 21 EMA, indicating short-term weakness and downward momentum.
  • Valuation is considered stretched, limiting immediate upside potential without further earnings growth.
  • Relative strength compared to SPY and its sector shows underperformance in the short-term.

No longer flagged

0

Nothing dropped this run

Model's reflection on the prior call

The prior reasoning that price was likely to drift lower or sideways to find support near long-term levels proved accurate, as the price experienced minimal movement following the call.

Analysis timeline
6 runs

Jun 12, 2026

Latest

Updated Jun 12, 2026, 9:58 AM UTC

WeeklyWAIT
Long termAVOID
Confidence70% · Medium

Price at review

$242

Amazon is currently pulling back, consolidating after a recent failed breakout attempt. While underlying fundamentals remain strong, the market is digesting recent price action. Investors should wait for clearer signs of stability and support to form before considering new positions.

Jun 5, 2026

Updated Jun 5, 2026, 9:38 AM UTC

WeeklyWAIT
Long termWATCH
Confidence70% · Medium

Price at review

$254

Price is likely to drift lower or sideways as it searches for a stable floor near long-term support levels.

May 29, 2026

Updated May 29, 2026, 8:42 AM UTC

WeeklyBUY
Long termWATCH
Confidence85% · High

Price at review

$274

The stock is showing renewed strength and looks ready to challenge its recent highs. After a brief period of drifting, buyers are returning and the upward trend is back in play.

May 21, 2026

Updated May 21, 2026, 11:21 PM UTC

WeeklyWAIT
Long termWATCH
Confidence85% · High

Price at review

$268

The trend is still positive but lacks the fuel for an immediate breakout. Expect more sideways churning as the market waits for a catalyst or a deeper dip.

May 13, 2026

Updated May 13, 2026, 5:33 PM UTC

WeeklyWAIT
Long termWATCH
Confidence85% · High

Price at review

$269

The trend remains upward but the current move is tired. Expect a cooling-off period or a dip before the next meaningful push.

Jan 21, 1970

Updated Apr 27, 2026, 10:06 PM UTC

WeeklyBUY
Long termWATCH
Confidence55% · Medium

Price at review

$261

Price extends 8.7% above daily 21 EMA with strong relative strength versus SPY and XLY, but volume trend is negative (-7.3%) and we are 2 days from earnings with stock near 52-week highs. This is a momentum continuation setup with elevated event risk.