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WeeklyWAIT
Long termOWN
AMD
AMD
Advanced Micro Devices, Inc.

Latest update

$517

Updated: Jun 17, 2026, 2:20 PM UTC

Browsing public data

Metrics

Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD) maintains strong growth and profitability amidst AI accelerator demand.

AMD, a major semiconductor company, continues to demonstrate robust financial health, driven by its diverse portfolio including AI accelerators, microprocessors, and GPUs. The company showcases strong revenue and free cash flow growth, healthy profitability, and a solid balance sheet with manageable debt. While the P/E ratio appears high on a trailing basis, forward estimates suggest a significant valuation improvement.

Growth pace
How fast the underlying business is moving, quarter by quarter. Hover any tile for the plain-English meaning.

Revenue

The total dollars the company billed customers. When this number grows quarter after quarter, the business is finding more demand.

quarterly

Latest

$10.3B

Q1 2026

The most recent reported figure, in the company's own currency and reporting cadence.

QoQ

-0.2%

vs Q4 2025

How much this quarter grew compared to last quarter. Useful for spotting acceleration or slowdown in real time.

YoY

+37.8%

vs Q1 2025

How much this quarter grew compared to the same quarter one year ago. Strips out seasonality — a slow holiday quarter looks worse QoQ but normal YoY.

CAGR

insufficient history

The smooth yearly growth rate that gets you from the starting value to the current value. A 100% CAGR over 3 years means the business tripled, on average, each year.

Net income

What's left from revenue after paying every cost — employees, materials, taxes, interest. Sometimes called profit or 'the bottom line.'

quarterly

Latest

$1.4B

Q1 2026

The most recent reported figure, in the company's own currency and reporting cadence.

QoQ

-8.5%

vs Q4 2025

How much this quarter grew compared to last quarter. Useful for spotting acceleration or slowdown in real time.

YoY

+95.1%

vs Q1 2025

How much this quarter grew compared to the same quarter one year ago. Strips out seasonality — a slow holiday quarter looks worse QoQ but normal YoY.

CAGR

insufficient history

The smooth yearly growth rate that gets you from the starting value to the current value. A 100% CAGR over 3 years means the business tripled, on average, each year.

Free cash flow

The cash actually left in the bank after the company has paid for everything and reinvested in itself. Harder to fake than net income.

quarterly

Latest

$2.6B

Q1 2026

The most recent reported figure, in the company's own currency and reporting cadence.

QoQ

+7.9%

vs Q4 2025

How much this quarter grew compared to last quarter. Useful for spotting acceleration or slowdown in real time.

YoY

+253.0%

vs Q1 2025

How much this quarter grew compared to the same quarter one year ago. Strips out seasonality — a slow holiday quarter looks worse QoQ but normal YoY.

CAGR

insufficient history

The smooth yearly growth rate that gets you from the starting value to the current value. A 100% CAGR over 3 years means the business tripled, on average, each year.

Quarterly revenue, net income & free cash flow
Bars show what the company actually reported each quarter. The growth chart below turns these into the QoQ / YoY pace the rest of this page uses.
Annual growth rate (YoY)
Year-over-year change in full-year totals. Strips out quarterly noise and seasonality so the multi-year trend is visible — not just the last 12 months.
Compound annual growth (CAGR)
The smooth yearly growth rate across each window. The "start → end" line shows the dollar value at the beginning and end of the window.
Metric3 yr2 yr1 yr
Revenue
+37.9%
$7.4B$10.3B
Net income
+95.2%
$709M$1.4B
Free cash flow
+253.3%
$727M$2.6B
Valuation — P/E

P/E TTM

173.0×

Trailing twelve months. Today's price divided by the last year of actual earnings.

P/E NTM

39.5×

Next twelve months. Today's price divided by what analysts expect the company to earn over the coming year.

Balance sheet & valuation
The five numbers that decide whether the growth above is safe, sustainable, and reasonably priced. Descriptions on every tile — hover or scroll to read.

Profitability

Strong

Operating margin (and the wider return profile) tells you how efficiently each dollar of sales becomes profit. High and rising = pricing power; low or falling = the business is grinding.

Share count

Stable

Are the buybacks outrunning the stock-based comp? A shrinking share count means every existing share owns a bigger slice of future earnings.

Debt load

Light

Total debt against cash and earnings power (EBITDA). Light debt leaves room to invest and weather downturns; heavy debt shrinks the margin for error.

Debt service

Strong

Whether the cash the business generates easily covers its interest and loan payments. Strong here = no forced selling in a bad year.

Cash return at today's price

0.9%

Free cash flow divided by market cap — the cash yield you're getting for the price you pay. Above ~6% is rich, below ~3% is thin. P/E shown when the yield is too small to be useful.

What stands out
  • Revenue growth remains strong at 37.8% YoY, supported by significant free cash flow growth of 253.0% YoY.
  • The company maintains strong profitability with a gross margin of 53.1%, operating margin of 14.4%, and net income increasing 95.1% YoY.
  • AMD's balance sheet is robust with a high current ratio (2.7) and quick ratio (1.8), and debt is light with strong debt service capacity.
  • Share count is stable, suggesting no significant shareholder dilution.
  • Valuation appears rich on a trailing twelve months basis (P/E 173.0x) but becomes more attractive on a forward basis (P/E 39.5x), indicating expected earnings growth.

Thesis

Why this read

AMD is in a strong markup cycle, consistently outperforming the market and its sector. However, the current price is extended significantly above its short-term moving averages, and contracting volume suggests a pause or minor pullback might be imminent. Waiting for a more disciplined entry point closer to support offers a better risk-reward profile, even though the long-term trend remains firmly positive.

Short-term thesis

Aligned85% conviction+10 ptsv1
AMD: An indispensable partner in the accelerating AI infrastructure buildout.

AMD is positioned as a critical supplier for the burgeoning AI and data center markets, leveraging its strategic position as a 'strategic secondary' GPU provider. The company's robust financial performance and product innovation, particularly in AI accelerators, align perfectly with increasing demand for high-performance computing. While short-term valuation and technical extension suggest patience, the long-term secular trends provide a compelling investment case.

Long-term exposure

Own

The business backdrop is strong enough for long-term exposure.

Entry window

Wait

After a strong showing, the stock is currently extended. While the underlying trend is firmly positive, it's prudent to wait for a more favorable entry point closer to its short-term average.

Risk check

Watch

Risk is manageable, but position size and timing still matter.

Alignment

Aligned

The weekly setup and the long-term case are pulling together.

What supports it

  • Sales and cash still support a long hold.
  • Price still looks reasonable against the business.
  • Balance sheet gives the thesis room to breathe.
  • Debt service still looks controlled against cash generation.

What limits it

  • Price is significantly extended above its daily and weekly averages, suggesting it is overbought in the short term.
  • High short-term valuation and overextension after recent strong upward move.
  • Intense competition in the semiconductor market from established players and emerging innovators.
  • Potential for cyclicality in semiconductor demand, although AI demand acts as a buffer.

Long-term thesis

The escalating demand for AI acceleration and high-performance computing infrastructure creates a persistent bottleneck in GPU supply, which AMD is uniquely positioned to capitalize on.

91opportunity85% thesis conf
Crossing Chasm5y horizon

Bottleneck Role

Strategic Secondary GPU provider, filling the supply gap left by incumbents and diversifying AI infrastructure.

Consensus Blind Spot

The market may undervalue AMD's long-term capture potential as a strategic alternative to the dominant GPU player, assuming its role is merely supplementary rather than essential for overall AI ecosystem expansion and multi-vendor strategies.

Demand Gap

The current supply of high-performance AI accelerators cannot meet the rapidly expanding global demand from data centers, enterprises, and research institutions exploring generative AI and large language models.

Demand to Equity Scenarios

Bear60% conf

Slower global AI adoption or increased competition.

Demand

-15%

Earnings

-10%

Equity implication

-20%

Reduced order volumes and potential price pressure in competitive segments.

Base80% conf

Continued strong AI infrastructure buildout with AMD capturing a consistent share of secondary supply.

Demand

+25%

Earnings

+20%

Equity implication

+30%

Consistent growth in data center segment, stable margins for AI accelerators and server CPUs.

Bull70% conf

Accelerated AI adoption and AMD becoming a preferred or critical alternative supplier, capturing greater than expected market share.

Demand

+40%

Earnings

+35%

Equity implication

+50%

Significant increase in design wins, higher average selling prices, and expanded production capacity utilization.

Dependency Chain

  1. 1Massive demand shock for AI computation across all industries.
  2. 2Critical bottleneck in high-performance GPU supply from primary providers.
  3. 3Increased utilization and pricing power for all viable GPU providers, including AMD.
  4. 4Accelerated earnings revisions for AMD due to increased market share and profitability.
  5. 5Significant equity repricing of AMD as it gains share and visibility in the AI market.

Repricing Triggers

  • Strong earnings reports with upside surprises, especially in the Data Center segment.
  • Announcements of major AI accelerator design wins or partnerships with hyperscalers.
  • Positive analyst upgrades and increased price targets due to revised market share expectations.
  • Further evidence of supply chain constraints for primary competitors, diverting demand to AMD.
  • New product launches that demonstrate competitive performance against high-end AI accelerators.

Must be true

  • The demand for AI computation will continue its exponential growth.
  • The supply of leading-edge AI accelerators will remain constrained from primary vendors.
  • AMD's product roadmap and execution will allow it to remain competitive and capture market share in high-growth segments.
  • AMD effectively manages its complex supply chain and manufacturing partnerships amidst high demand.

Thesis broken if

  • Significant slowdown in overall AI infrastructure spending.
  • Competitors rapidly alleviate supply constraints or introduce superior products.
  • AMD's Data Center revenue growth significantly underperforms expectations.
  • Increasing inventory levels or declining average selling prices for AMD's AI-focused products.
  • Negative revisions to long-term earnings estimates and reduced analyst coverage.

History

What changed

Since the previous run · 1 month ago
Prior call was right

Signal

BUYBUY

Conviction

0.88%75%+74 pts

Long term

Maybe ownOwnFlipped

Stock

$490.33$517.13+5.5%

Added since last run

7
  • Strong momentum with significant gains over 5 and 20 days.
  • Positive earnings revision trend (13.7% over 90 days).
  • Very strong relative strength against SPY and the sector.
  • Positive earnings growth of 91.2%.
  • Price is significantly extended above its daily and weekly averages, suggesting it is overbought in the short term.
  • Volume is contracting, indicating potential profit-taking or waning buying interest at current levels.
  • High trailing P/E ratio.

No longer flagged

0

Nothing dropped this run

Model's reflection on the prior call

The prior reasoning correctly identified an opportune entry point due to a slight pullback, and the stock performed as expected, moving in the predicted direction.

Analysis timeline
6 runs

Jun 17, 2026

Latest

Updated Jun 17, 2026, 2:20 PM UTC

WeeklyWAIT
Long termOWN
Confidence75% · High

Price at review

$517

After a strong showing, the stock is currently extended. While the underlying trend is firmly positive, it's prudent to wait for a more favorable entry point closer to its short-term average.

Jun 9, 2026

Updated Jun 9, 2026, 1:15 PM UTC

WeeklyBUY
Long termWATCH
Confidence88% · High

Price at review

$490

Price has pulled back slightly toward its shorter-term average, offering a more attractive entry point than the previous week.

Jun 2, 2026

Updated Jun 2, 2026, 9:01 AM UTC

WeeklyWAIT
Long termWATCH
Confidence82% · High

Price at review

$510

The stock is currently taking a breather after a massive surge, which is healthy behavior for a long-term winner.

May 6, 2026

Updated May 6, 2026, 11:21 PM UTC

WeeklyWAIT
Long termWATCH
Confidence70% · Medium

Price at review

$421

The trend is extremely strong but price is currently too far extended for a safe entry. Waiting for a better balance between risk and reward is prudent.

Apr 28, 2026

Updated Apr 28, 2026, 8:20 PM UTC

WeeklySELL
Long termOWN
Confidence52% · Low

Price at review

$323

Price has rejected from $352.99 high with two consecutive distribution days, volume expanding on declines, and momentum rolling over from extreme overbought. The 5-day momentum at 13.6% is half the 20-day reading of 64.9%—classic deceleration signature. With earnings in 7 days and no consolidation around 21 EMA, risk-reward has turned negative for new exposure.

Jan 21, 1970

Updated Apr 27, 2026, 10:21 PM UTC

WeeklyBUY
Long termOWN
Confidence58% · Medium

Price at review

$335

Price retreated 3.79% from $348 resistance area toward $334, but remains 24.8% above daily 21 EMA with volume trend expanding 51%. With earnings 8 days away and option positioning likely active, expect elevated volatility — the pullback offers a tactical entry for momentum continuation if support holds above $320.