Back
Paris
WeeklyWAIT
Long termAVOID
AIR.
AIR.PA
AIRBUS SE

Latest update

$184

Updated: Jun 15, 2026, 5:39 PM UTC

Browsing public data

Metrics

Airbus SE (AIR.PA): Mixed Financials Amidst Growing Demand in Aerospace

Airbus SE operates globally in aeronautics, aerospace, and defense, manufacturing commercial aircraft, helicopters, and military/space systems. Recent financial results for Q1 2026 show significant quarter-over-quarter declines in revenue, net income, and free cash flow, although the company maintains a strong balance sheet with light debt. Profitability metrics like operating margin and return on assets are weak. The stock currently trades at a P/E of 29.0x, with a forward P/E of 21.4x, suggesting the market expects future improvement. Shareholder returns include a growing dividend, but free cash flow generation is currently negative.

Growth pace
How fast the underlying business is moving, quarter by quarter. Hover any tile for the plain-English meaning.

Revenue

The total dollars the company billed customers. When this number grows quarter after quarter, the business is finding more demand.

quarterly

Latest

$12.7B

Q1 2026

The most recent reported figure, in the company's own currency and reporting cadence.

QoQ

-51.3%

vs Q4 2025

How much this quarter grew compared to last quarter. Useful for spotting acceleration or slowdown in real time.

YoY

-6.6%

vs Q1 2025

How much this quarter grew compared to the same quarter one year ago. Strips out seasonality — a slow holiday quarter looks worse QoQ but normal YoY.

CAGR

insufficient history

The smooth yearly growth rate that gets you from the starting value to the current value. A 100% CAGR over 3 years means the business tripled, on average, each year.

Net income

What's left from revenue after paying every cost — employees, materials, taxes, interest. Sometimes called profit or 'the bottom line.'

quarterly

Latest

$586M

Q1 2026

The most recent reported figure, in the company's own currency and reporting cadence.

QoQ

-77.3%

vs Q4 2025

How much this quarter grew compared to last quarter. Useful for spotting acceleration or slowdown in real time.

YoY

-26.1%

vs Q1 2025

How much this quarter grew compared to the same quarter one year ago. Strips out seasonality — a slow holiday quarter looks worse QoQ but normal YoY.

CAGR

insufficient history

The smooth yearly growth rate that gets you from the starting value to the current value. A 100% CAGR over 3 years means the business tripled, on average, each year.

Free cash flow

The cash actually left in the bank after the company has paid for everything and reinvested in itself. Harder to fake than net income.

quarterly

Latest

-$2.5B

Q1 2026

The most recent reported figure, in the company's own currency and reporting cadence.

QoQ

-145.5%

vs Q4 2025

How much this quarter grew compared to last quarter. Useful for spotting acceleration or slowdown in real time.

YoY

vs Q1 2025

How much this quarter grew compared to the same quarter one year ago. Strips out seasonality — a slow holiday quarter looks worse QoQ but normal YoY.

CAGR

insufficient history

The smooth yearly growth rate that gets you from the starting value to the current value. A 100% CAGR over 3 years means the business tripled, on average, each year.

Quarterly revenue, net income & free cash flow
Bars show what the company actually reported each quarter. The growth chart below turns these into the QoQ / YoY pace the rest of this page uses.
Annual growth rate (YoY)
Year-over-year change in full-year totals. Strips out quarterly noise and seasonality so the multi-year trend is visible — not just the last 12 months.
Compound annual growth (CAGR)
The smooth yearly growth rate across each window. The "start → end" line shows the dollar value at the beginning and end of the window.
Metric3 yr2 yr1 yr
Revenue
-6.6%
$13.5B$12.7B
Net income
-26.1%
$793M$586M
Free cash flow
Valuation — P/E

P/E TTM

29.0×

Trailing twelve months. Today's price divided by the last year of actual earnings.

P/E NTM

21.4×

Next twelve months. Today's price divided by what analysts expect the company to earn over the coming year.

Balance sheet & valuation
The five numbers that decide whether the growth above is safe, sustainable, and reasonably priced. Descriptions on every tile — hover or scroll to read.

Profitability

Mixed

Operating margin (and the wider return profile) tells you how efficiently each dollar of sales becomes profit. High and rising = pricing power; low or falling = the business is grinding.

Share count

Stable

Are the buybacks outrunning the stock-based comp? A shrinking share count means every existing share owns a bigger slice of future earnings.

Debt load

Light

Total debt against cash and earnings power (EBITDA). Light debt leaves room to invest and weather downturns; heavy debt shrinks the margin for error.

Debt service

Weak

Whether the cash the business generates easily covers its interest and loan payments. Strong here = no forced selling in a bad year.

Cash return at today's price

-0.1%

Free cash flow divided by market cap — the cash yield you're getting for the price you pay. Above ~6% is rich, below ~3% is thin. P/E shown when the yield is too small to be useful.

What stands out
  • Revenue growth is negative year-over-year (-6.6%) and significantly down quarter-over-quarter (-51.3%), but this is based on Q1 2026 data which can be seasonally weak for large industrials.
  • Net income and free cash flow experienced sharp declines quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year, with FCF turning significantly negative.
  • The balance sheet shows light debt and a strong current ratio, but weak debt service coverage, indicating some strain on operational cash generation relative to financing costs.
  • Profitability (operating margin 1.5%, profit margin 6.9%) is mixed, suggesting efficiency challenges.
  • The valuation appears stretched with a P/E of 29.0x, though the forward P/E implies expected earnings improvement.
  • Shareholder returns are supported by a rising dividend, but FCF is currently negative.

Thesis

Why this read

Airbus shows an underlying bullish cycle with strong momentum in the short term. However, the move has been swift, and the stock is now extended. The contracting volume while the price advances indicates that the underlying demand for the stock might be cooling off, suggesting a temporary exhaustion of buyers. Given the mixed fundamental picture, waiting for a better entry point on a pullback or consolidation would be prudent rather than chasing the current price.

Short-term thesis

Mixed44% conviction-16 ptsv1
Airbus: Awaiting Better Entry Amidst Aerospace Rebound and Operational Headwinds

Airbus is poised to benefit from long-term demand in aerospace, driven by fleet renewal and air travel recovery. While the company's financial results show some near-term weakness in profitability and cash flow, its strong balance sheet and dominant market position provide resilience. The current stock valuation is somewhat stretched relative to recent earnings, suggesting the market is anticipating future operational improvements. A more attractive investment opportunity would arise on a pullback, offering a better risk/reward profile as the company navigates production ramp-ups and aims to convert robust order books into stronger free cash flow.

Long-term exposure

Avoid

The business or valuation backdrop is not ready for long-term conviction.

Entry window

Wait

Airbus has shown recent upward momentum, with the price moving above both short-term and medium-term averages. However, volume contracted during this move, which can indicate wavering conviction. While the overall trend is positive, the current price is a little extended, suggesting a potential for consolidation or a slight pullback. A more compelling entry would be on a retest of support levels, particularly given the mixed fundamental picture.

Risk check

Fragile

The downside can widen quickly if this setup goes wrong.

Alignment

Mixed

Neither horizon fully wins, so size and patience matter.

What supports it

  • Balance sheet gives the thesis room to breathe.
  • The stock is leading the broad market by 5.5 points over the past month.
  • Trend is still doing some of the heavy lifting this week.
  • Recent positive price momentum and relative strength against the sector.

What limits it

  • This needs smaller size or more patience.
  • Debt service looks stretched for current cash generation.
  • Price already asks a lot from the business.
  • Margins or returns are too soft for a clean long hold.

Long-term thesis

Global air traffic growth and essential defense spending driving aerospace demand.

75opportunity70% thesis conf
Mainstream5y horizon

Bottleneck Role

Airbus acts as a critical bottleneck in the commercial aviation sector, being one of only two major manufacturers of large commercial aircraft. This duopoly creates scarcity in supply for the growing global demand for air travel and fleet modernization. Its diverse defense portfolio also positions it in a critical role for national security and innovation.

Consensus Blind Spot

The consensus may be underestimating Airbus's ability to significantly improve operational efficiency and free cash flow as production bottlenecks ease and new aircraft deliveries accelerate post-pandemic. Q1 2026 data, while weak, might obscure the underlying recovery trajectory and the benefit of pricing power from its dominant market position.

Demand Gap

There is a significant and growing gap between the current global commercial aircraft fleet's capacity and the projected long-term demand for air travel, fueled by emerging market growth and rising global middle classes. Furthermore, increasing geopolitical tensions drive a persistent demand for advanced defense capabilities, where Airbus has a strong standing.

Demand to Equity Scenarios

Bull75% conf

Faster-than-expected recovery in global air travel, accelerated fleet renewal, and increased defense spending.

Demand

+15%

Earnings

+25%

Equity implication

+35%

Improved delivery rates, higher utilization of production capacity, and stronger margins due to pricing power.

Base85% conf

Steady recovery in air travel to pre-pandemic levels, consistent albeit slow fleet modernization, stable defense budgets.

Demand

+8%

Earnings

+15%

Equity implication

+20%

Gradual increase in deliveries, moderate margin improvement, and progressive free cash flow generation.

Bear60% conf

Global economic slowdown, resurgent geopolitical instability dampening travel, prolonged supply chain disruptions, or new pandemic waves.

Demand

-5%

Earnings

-15%

Equity implication

-25%

Delayed deliveries, increased production costs, margin compression, and continued negative free cash flow.

Dependency Chain

  1. 1Global economic growth & rise of middle class -> increased air travel demand
  2. 2Aging aircraft fleets & sustainability regulations -> demand for new, fuel-efficient aircraft
  3. 3Geopolitical instability -> increased defense spending and demand for robust military aviation/space solutions
  4. 4Airbus's duopoly position in commercial aerospace & diversified defense portfolio -> strong order inflow
  5. 5Efficient production ramp-up & supply chain management -> converting orders to deliveries & improved free cash flow
  6. 6Consistent share repurchases & dividend growth -> equity repricing upwards

Repricing Triggers

  • Better-than-expected earnings reports that demonstrate improved free cash flow and operational margins.
  • Significant increases in production rates for key aircraft models.
  • Large new order announcements from major airlines.
  • Positive guidance revisions from management regarding full-year profitability and deliveries.
  • Resolution of critical supply chain issues that currently bottleneck production.

Must be true

  • The global economy avoids a severe recession.
  • Air travel continues its recovery trajectory without major setbacks.
  • Airbus successfully navigates supply chain constraints and increases production rates.
  • Geopolitical stability (or controlled instability) continues to support defense spending.
  • No new major competitors emerge to disrupt the commercial aerospace duopoly.

Thesis broken if

  • Persistent negative free cash flow and declining margins despite rising revenues.
  • Significant cancellations of existing aircraft orders or slowdown in new orders.
  • Guidance cuts by Airbus management regarding deliveries or profitability.
  • Deterioration of the global economic outlook leading to reduced air travel.
  • Failure to resolve supply chain issues, resulting in prolonged production delays.

History

Analysis timeline
1 runs

Jun 15, 2026

Latest

Updated Jun 15, 2026, 5:39 PM UTC

WeeklyWAIT
Long termAVOID
Confidence60% · Medium

Price at review

$184

Airbus has shown recent upward momentum, with the price moving above both short-term and medium-term averages. However, volume contracted during this move, which can indicate wavering conviction. While the overall trend is positive, the current price is a little extended, suggesting a potential for consolidation or a slight pullback. A more compelling entry would be on a retest of support levels, particularly given the mixed fundamental picture.