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Long termAVOID
ADBE
ADBE
Adobe Inc.

Latest update

$206

Updated: Jun 15, 2026, 9:37 PM UTC

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Metrics

Adobe Inc. (ADBE) - Q2 2026 Performance and Market Context

Adobe Inc. reported Q2 2026 revenue of $6.6B, representing a 12.7% YoY increase, with net income growing 1.2% YoY to $1.7B. Free cash flow decreased slightly by 1.7% YoY to $2.1B. The company exhibits strong profitability with an 89.4% gross margin and 33.8% operating margin, leading to a high ROE of 63.0%. Valuation multiple appears attractive with a TTM P/E of 11.8x and a NTM P/E of 7.5x. While the balance sheet debt load is manageable and debt service is strong, current and quick ratios are below 1, suggesting short-term liquidity bears watching. Share count is shrinking, indicating active shareholder returns. The company is positioned in Digital Media and Digital Experience segments, offering creative and marketing solutions, and has a strategic alliance with HUMAIN for generative AI development.

Growth pace
How fast the underlying business is moving, quarter by quarter. Hover any tile for the plain-English meaning.

Revenue

The total dollars the company billed customers. When this number grows quarter after quarter, the business is finding more demand.

quarterly

Latest

$6.6B

Q2 2026

The most recent reported figure, in the company's own currency and reporting cadence.

QoQ

+3.4%

vs Q1 2026

How much this quarter grew compared to last quarter. Useful for spotting acceleration or slowdown in real time.

YoY

+12.7%

vs Q2 2025

How much this quarter grew compared to the same quarter one year ago. Strips out seasonality — a slow holiday quarter looks worse QoQ but normal YoY.

CAGR

insufficient history

The smooth yearly growth rate that gets you from the starting value to the current value. A 100% CAGR over 3 years means the business tripled, on average, each year.

Net income

What's left from revenue after paying every cost — employees, materials, taxes, interest. Sometimes called profit or 'the bottom line.'

quarterly

Latest

$1.7B

Q2 2026

The most recent reported figure, in the company's own currency and reporting cadence.

QoQ

-9.4%

vs Q1 2026

How much this quarter grew compared to last quarter. Useful for spotting acceleration or slowdown in real time.

YoY

+1.2%

vs Q2 2025

How much this quarter grew compared to the same quarter one year ago. Strips out seasonality — a slow holiday quarter looks worse QoQ but normal YoY.

CAGR

insufficient history

The smooth yearly growth rate that gets you from the starting value to the current value. A 100% CAGR over 3 years means the business tripled, on average, each year.

Free cash flow

The cash actually left in the bank after the company has paid for everything and reinvested in itself. Harder to fake than net income.

quarterly

Latest

$2.1B

Q2 2026

The most recent reported figure, in the company's own currency and reporting cadence.

QoQ

-27.9%

vs Q1 2026

How much this quarter grew compared to last quarter. Useful for spotting acceleration or slowdown in real time.

YoY

-1.7%

vs Q2 2025

How much this quarter grew compared to the same quarter one year ago. Strips out seasonality — a slow holiday quarter looks worse QoQ but normal YoY.

CAGR

insufficient history

The smooth yearly growth rate that gets you from the starting value to the current value. A 100% CAGR over 3 years means the business tripled, on average, each year.

Quarterly revenue, net income & free cash flow
Bars show what the company actually reported each quarter. The growth chart below turns these into the QoQ / YoY pace the rest of this page uses.
Annual growth rate (YoY)
Year-over-year change in full-year totals. Strips out quarterly noise and seasonality so the multi-year trend is visible — not just the last 12 months.
Compound annual growth (CAGR)
The smooth yearly growth rate across each window. The "start → end" line shows the dollar value at the beginning and end of the window.
Metric3 yr2 yr1 yr
Revenue
+12.7%
$5.9B$6.6B
Net income
+1.2%
$1.7B$1.7B
Free cash flow
-1.7%
$2.1B$2.1B
Valuation — P/E

P/E TTM

11.8×

Trailing twelve months. Today's price divided by the last year of actual earnings.

P/E NTM

7.5×

Next twelve months. Today's price divided by what analysts expect the company to earn over the coming year.

Balance sheet & valuation
The five numbers that decide whether the growth above is safe, sustainable, and reasonably priced. Descriptions on every tile — hover or scroll to read.

Profitability

Strong

Operating margin (and the wider return profile) tells you how efficiently each dollar of sales becomes profit. High and rising = pricing power; low or falling = the business is grinding.

Share count

Shrinking

Are the buybacks outrunning the stock-based comp? A shrinking share count means every existing share owns a bigger slice of future earnings.

Debt load

Manageable

Total debt against cash and earnings power (EBITDA). Light debt leaves room to invest and weather downturns; heavy debt shrinks the margin for error.

Debt service

Strong

Whether the cash the business generates easily covers its interest and loan payments. Strong here = no forced selling in a bad year.

Cash return at today's price

10.8%

Free cash flow divided by market cap — the cash yield you're getting for the price you pay. Above ~6% is rich, below ~3% is thin. P/E shown when the yield is too small to be useful.

What stands out
  • Adobe's revenue growth is solid at 12.7% YoY, with net income growth at 1.2% YoY.
  • Profitability remains very strong with high gross and operating margins, and excellent ROE.
  • Free cash flow saw a slight YoY decrease, and QoQ decreased significantly.
  • Valuation metrics (P/E, Fwd P/E) appear attractive relative to historic tech valuations.
  • The balance sheet shows manageable debt and strong debt serviceability, but sub-1 current and quick ratios warrant attention.
  • Share count is shrinking, indicating shareholder-friendly capital allocation.
  • The company is actively involved in generative AI development, which could be a future growth driver.

Thesis

Why this read

The stock is in a confirmed markdown phase with strong technical deterioration. The price is deeply entrenched below key moving averages, and increased volume on selling signals strong institutional distribution. The extreme underperformance against benchmarks underscores the weakness. While some fundamental metrics are appealing, they are currently overshadowed by aggressive selling. Entering now carries high risk.

Short-term thesis

Aligned49% conviction-21 ptsv1
Tactical Avoidance for Adobe Amidst Technical Weakness

While Adobe exhibits strong underlying profitability and an attractive valuation, the current market dynamics are overwhelmingly negative. The stock is in a severe markdown phase, trading well below key averages with significant selling pressure. Fundamental strengths, such as high margins and shareholder returns, are not currently preventing price erosion. A tactical avoidance is prudent until the technical picture shows signs of stabilization, regardless of the long-term potential in Digital Media, Experience, and AI.

Long-term exposure

Avoid

The business or valuation backdrop is not ready for long-term conviction.

Entry window

Trim / avoid

Adobe stock is in a clear downtrend, trading significantly below its daily and weekly moving averages with expanding selling volume. All momentum indicators are negative, and the stock is showing severe underperformance against both the broader market and its sector. While fundamentals present some positive aspects, the immediate technical picture is very weak, suggesting further downside is likely in the short term. Investors should avoid this stock for now.

Risk check

Fragile

The downside can widen quickly if this setup goes wrong.

Alignment

Aligned

The weekly weakness matches a poor long-term backdrop.

What supports it

  • Sales and cash still support a long hold.
  • Price still looks reasonable against the business.
  • Margins and returns still support the long hold.
  • Share count has been shrinking instead of diluting holders.

What limits it

  • This needs smaller size or more patience.
  • Debt service looks stretched for current cash generation.
  • The stock is lagging the broad market by 18.8 points over the past month.
  • The stock is trailing its sector by 25.5 points.

Long-term thesis

The increasing demand for digital content creation, editing, and management, amplified by the mainstream adoption of generative AI tools, will drive sustained growth for Adobe's Digital Media and Digital Experience segments.

75opportunity70% thesis conf
Mainstream5y horizon

Bottleneck Role

Adobe serves as a critical enabler (bottleneck) for digital content creation, editing, and personalized digital experiences. Its Creative Cloud tools are industry standard, and its Experience Cloud helps businesses manage customer journeys. The integration of generative AI enhances its ability to alleviate content creation bottlenecks and automate experience delivery.

Consensus Blind Spot

The consensus might be underestimating Adobe's ability to seamlessly integrate generative AI into its existing, widely adopted suite of products, thereby reinforcing its competitive moats and driving new revenue streams through enhanced productivity and innovative features. The current valuation may not fully account for the long-term impact of AI on its subscription model and market dominance.

Demand Gap

There is a growing demand gap for efficient, scalable, and personalized digital content creation and customer experience management, particularly with the explosion of digital touchpoints and the need for high-quality, frequently refreshed content frameworks across diverse platforms. Generative AI offers tools to bridge this gap, and Adobe is positioned to capture this.

Demand to Equity Scenarios

Bear60% conf

Slower adoption of generative AI in creative workflows; increased competition from open-source AI tools or new entrants; economic slowdown impacting enterprise IT/marketing spend.

Demand

-10%

Earnings

-15%

Equity implication

-25%

Reduced subscription growth, competitive pricing pressure, and slower adoption of new features leading to lower average revenue per user (ARPU).

Base75% conf

Steady migration to digital and cloud-based creative tools; moderate adoption of AI-enhanced features; consistent enterprise spend on digital experience platforms.

Demand

+8%

Earnings

+10%

Equity implication

+15%

Consistent revenue growth from existing subscribers and modest expansion into new user segments, with AI features incrementally enhancing value.

Bull70% conf

Rapid, widespread adoption of generative AI across creative professionals and enterprises, significantly boosting demand for Adobe's integrated AI-powered tools; continued market share dominance and strong pricing power.

Demand

+20%

Earnings

+25%

Equity implication

+40%

Accelerated subscription growth across both Digital Media and Digital Experience segments, higher ARPU from premium AI features, and expanded market reach due to enhanced product capabilities.

Dependency Chain

  1. 1Accelerating demand for digital content and customer experiences.
  2. 2Bottleneck in efficient, high-quality content creation and personalized experience delivery.
  3. 3Adobe's Creative Suite and Experience Cloud provide critical tools to address this bottleneck.
  4. 4Market leadership and AI integration enable pricing power and utilization gains.
  5. 5Earnings revisions upward as demand translates to financial performance.
  6. 6Equity repricing to reflect increased earnings and market share in critical growing areas.

Repricing Triggers

  • Earnings reports demonstrating significant acceleration in AI-driven subscription growth or ARPU expansion.
  • Major product announcements showcasing groundbreaking generative AI features that further integrate into workflows.
  • Upward revisions to analyst growth forecasts and price targets.
  • Acquisitions or strategic partnerships that expand Adobe's AI capabilities or market reach.
  • Stabilization or reversal of the current technical downtrend.

Must be true

  • Adobe maintains its leadership position in professional creative software despite increasing competition.
  • The integration of generative AI into its product suite creates genuine value for users and drives new subscriptions/ARPU.
  • Enterprise spending on digital experience platforms remains robust.
  • The subscription model continues to provide predictable and growing revenue streams.

Thesis broken if

  • Significant loss of market share to competitors in creative or experience segments.
  • Negative feedback or rejection of Adobe's AI integration by key user groups.
  • Consistent deceleration in subscription revenue growth or declining ARPU.
  • Inability to translate technological innovation into sustained free cash flow growth.
  • Prolonged technical weakness that resolves into a new, lower trading range.

History

Analysis timeline
1 runs

Jun 15, 2026

Latest

Updated Jun 15, 2026, 9:37 PM UTC

WeeklySELL
Long termAVOID
Confidence70% · Medium

Price at review

$206

Adobe stock is in a clear downtrend, trading significantly below its daily and weekly moving averages with expanding selling volume. All momentum indicators are negative, and the stock is showing severe underperformance against both the broader market and its sector. While fundamentals present some positive aspects, the immediate technical picture is very weak, suggesting further downside is likely in the short term. Investors should avoid this stock for now.